Wind Advisory 93, NWS Juneau, AK

000 
WWAK77 PAJK 030343
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
643 PM AKST WED DEC 2 2009

AKZ027-030900-
/X.EXT.PAJK.WI.Y.0093.000000T0000Z-091203T0900Z/
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION COASTAL AREA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CRAIG...KLAWOCK
643 PM AKST WED DEC 2 2009

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT...

THE WIND ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT. 

WINDS WILL GUSTS ABOVE 40 MPH IN EXPOSED LOCATIONS ALONG PRINCE
OF WALES ISLAND THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY
AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE AROUND MIDNIGHT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

PSS

000 
WWAK77 PAJK 030832
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1132 PM AKST WED DEC 2 2009


AKZ027-030945-
/X.EXP.PAJK.WI.Y.0093.000000T0000Z-091203T0900Z/
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION COASTAL AREA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CRAIG...KLAWOCK
1132 PM AKST WED DEC 2 2009

...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT...

THE WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT. 



$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1237 PM AKST WED DEC 2 2009

.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS A 985 MB LOW
MOVING IN TO WESTERN AK AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER BC. THE FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW TO THE W HAS BEEN SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS THE
AK PANHANDLE. WARM AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAS KEPT PRECIP AS RAIN
OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN REGIONS WITH SNOW ALONG THE PAHN AND
PAGY BORDERS. PRECIP STARTING TO MOVE OVER THE SOUTHERN REGIONS IN
THE LATE MORNING. SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIP HAS FALLEN AS
THERE IS A LONG FETCH OF MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC. WINDY
CONDITIONS OVER THE PANHANDLE THIS MORNING HAVE BEEN DIMINISHING
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH INTO
TONIGHT. EXPECTING BREEZY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE TONIGHT WITH SMCR OVER CLARENCE STRAIT AND SUMNER
STRAIT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL AND E GULF
TONIGHT INTO THU. WITH THE BUILDING HIGH EXPECTING A SLOW WEATHER
DAY FOR THU WITH LIGHT WINDS. KEEPING CHANCE POPS WITH THE ONSHORE
FLOW BUT QPF AT THIS TIME SHOULD BE LOW. WITH CONVECTIVE
ENVIRONMENT BEHIND THE FRONT SOME HIGHER CAPE AND LI MOVING IN
FROM THE WEST SO HAVE ADDED ISO TSTORMS TO PKZ52 AND 51 THIS
EVENING.

 MODELS INITIALIZED WELL THIS MORNING AND WERE IS FAIR AGREEMENT
WITH EACH OTHER. GFS AND NAM HAD THE BEST HANDLE ON THE WINDS
THIS MORNING AND WERE BLENDED IN WITH CURRENT GRIDS. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE WAS ABOVE AVERAGE WITH SOME QUESTION IF WINDS OVER THE
SOUTHERN REGIONS WILL LAST A BIT LONGING INTO TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
LONG TERM INDICATING A HIGH AMPLITUDE BLOCKING RIDGE BUILDING INTO
THE GULF AND NORTHERN ALASKA .

 WEAK FRONTAL REMNANT FROM SHORT TERM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO WEAKEN
LATE THURSDAY EARLY FRIDAY. CHANCE TO SLGT CHANCE POPS IN THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SOUTHERN ZONES AS
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS SLOWLY DIMINISH. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT LEADING TO THE POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY FOG ESPECIALLY IN THE
INNER CHANNELS.

 AS HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS ON FRIDAY AND AS WEAK
ONSHORE FLOW FROM SFC TO 850MB TRANSITIONS TO OFFSHORE FLOW SKIES
WILL BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT. GAP WINDS FROM INTERIOR PASSES AND
THROUGH INNER CHANNELS TO DEVELOP SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS 1059 MB
HIGH MOVES INTO THE YUKON AN THEN NORTHERN BC. ARCTIC FRONT HANGS
UP ALONG COASTAL MOUNTAINS INITIALLY ON SUNDAY BUT PUSHES INTO
PANHANDLE MONDAY USHERING IN MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. MODELS
BEGIN TO DEVELOP DIFFERENCES ON TIMING AND TRACK OF A POTENTIAL
SECOND SURGE OF EVEN COLDER AIR MOVING INTO THE YUKON AND EASTERN
AK FROM THE NORTHEAST BY LATE NEXT WEEK. EC NOT AS BULLISH IN
MOVING THE ARCTIC AIR SOUTH AND WEST INTO THE AREA. GFS BRINGS A
GOOD PUSH OR ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CONTINUES TO RETROGRADE TO THE NORTHWEST.

 GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MID TERM.
PREFERRED GFS NAM COMBINATION THROUGH DAY 4 AS BOTH INITIALIZED
WELL AND NAM WAS HANDLING POSITION AND STRENGTH OF CURRENT SYSTEM
IN THE GULF WELL. PREFERRED ECMWF DUE TO ITS CONSISTENCY OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL RUNS BEYOND DAY 4. HPC GUIDANCE HAS CAPTURED ECMWF
CONSISTENCY AND WAS USED TO MAKE MINIMAL UPDATES TO INHERITED
GRIDS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH DAY 4 AND
AVERAGE BEYOND THAT POINT.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON AKST TODAY FOR AKZ018.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012-013-021-041-042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-031-033>036-043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ022-051-052.

&&

PRB/CCC