Wind Advisory 91, NWS Juneau, AK

000 
WWAK77 PAJK 011348
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
448 AM AKST TUE DEC 1 2009

AKZ022-023-011800-
/X.NEW.PAJK.WI.Y.0092.091202T0000Z-091202T1500Z/
SALISBURY SOUND TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER COASTAL AREA-
CAPE DECISION TO SALISBURY SOUND COASTAL AREA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ELFIN COVE...PELICAN...SITKA...
PORT ALEXANDER
448 AM AKST TUE DEC 1 2009

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM AKST
WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JUNEAU HAS ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM
AKST WEDNESDAY. 

SOUTHEAST WIND 15 TO 20 MPH THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 30
MPH THIS AFTERNOON WITH WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH. THIS
CONDITION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 9 AM AKST THIS MORNING OR
SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

AKZ018-011800-
/X.CON.PAJK.WI.Y.0091.000000T0000Z-091201T1800Z/
TAIYA INLET AND KLONDIKE HIGHWAY-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...SKAGWAY
448 AM AKST TUE DEC 1 2009

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM AKST THIS MORNING...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM AKST THIS MORNING. 

AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT IS PRODUCING WINDY
CONDITIONS IN SKAGWAY. SOUTH WIND 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
40 MPH WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 9 AM AKST THIS MORNING OR
SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

000 
WWAK77 PAJK 011713
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
813 AM AKST TUE DEC 1 2009

AKZ018-011815-
/X.CAN.PAJK.WI.Y.0091.000000T0000Z-091201T1800Z/
TAIYA INLET AND KLONDIKE HIGHWAY-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...SKAGWAY
813 AM AKST TUE DEC 1 2009

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JUNEAU HAS CANCELLED THE WIND
ADVISORY. 

WIND GUSTS HAVE DIMINISHED THIS MORNING OVER NORTHERN LYNN
CANAL...HOWEVER GUSTS TO 35 MPH WILL LINGER FOR A FEW HOURS AS
WINDS CONTINUE TO DECREASE BY NOON.

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL STATEMENT.

$$

AKZ022-023-020100-
/X.CON.PAJK.WI.Y.0092.091202T0000Z-091202T1500Z/
SALISBURY SOUND TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER COASTAL AREA-
CAPE DECISION TO SALISBURY SOUND COASTAL AREA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ELFIN COVE...PELICAN...SITKA...
PORT ALEXANDER
813 AM AKST TUE DEC 1 2009

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
6 AM AKST WEDNESDAY...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
6 AM AKST WEDNESDAY. 

SOUTHEAST WIND 15 TO 20 MPH THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO
30 MPH THIS AFTERNOON WITH WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH. THIS
CONDITION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 4 PM AKST THIS AFTERNOON OR
SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

BEZENEK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
244 PM AKST MON NOV 30 2009

.SHORT TERM...RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER AND JUST E OF
THE AREA TONIGHT...THEN DRIFT E OF THE AREA TUE. COMPLEX FRONTAL
SYSTEM OVER THE FAR WRN GULF WILL DRIFT SLIGHTLY EWD THRU TUE. A
WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA AND WARM FRONT WILL MOVE N INTO THE
CENTRAL AND ERN GULF TUE.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE HOW FAR E PRECIP WILL GET
TONIGHT...AND PTYPE/AMTS. WARM ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP IN THE
850-700 MB LAYER TONIGHT OVER THE AREA...BUT THE BUILDING RIDGE
WILL LIKELY KEEP THE UVVS GENERALLY 700 MB AND BELOW...EXCEPT THE
PAYA AREA WILL SEE A DEEPER UVV AREA AS RIDGE BUILDING WILL BE
STRONGEST TO THE E OF THERE. ATTM...AM GOING TO GO WITH LIKELY
POPS OVER MUCH OF THE NRN MAIN PANHANDLE AREA...AND CAT POPS FOR
PAYA TONIGHT. FOR TUE...THE DEEP LAYER FLOW STARTS BACKING AND
BECOMES MORE ELY IN THE LOWER LEVELS AS THE LOW PRESSURE WAVE AND
WARM FRONT MOVE NWD...AND THIS WILL LIKELY CAUSE PRECIP TO
DIMINISH OVER THE MAIN PANHANDLE AREA TUE MORNING.
HOWEVER...PRECIP WITH THE LOW AND WARM FRONT WILL MOVE TO THE
OUTER COAST BY LATE TUE AFTERNOON SO WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS FOR
THERE WITH INNER CHANNELS DRYING OUT FOR A SHORT PERIOD.

AS FAR AS PTYPE/AMTS GO...PRECIP SHOULD BEGIN AS SNOW OVER THE
NRN AREA AS MUCH OF THE INITIAL WARMING WILL BE WELL ALOFT. LOWER
LAYERS WILL SLOWLY WARM LATER TONIGHT AND TUE...WITH THE PAYA AREA
SEEING A FASTER WARMING DUE TO INCREASING SE FLOW IN LOWER LEVELS.
SO PAYA SHOULD SEE THEIR SNOW CHANGE OVER TO RAIN DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT...WHILE NRN CHANNELS WILL SEE A COMPLETE
CHANGEOVER SOMETIME TUE MORNING. AS FOR AMTS...THE MAX UVV IS NEAR
-6 TO -8C TEMP LAYER ALOFT OVER MAIN PANHANDLE...NOT FAVORABLE FOR
SNOW DENDRITE GROWTH...AND DEPTH OF LIFT IS LIMITED BY RIDGE
BUILDING ALOFT. WILL KEEP PRECIP AMTS ON THE LIGHT SIDE...PROBABLY
A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS LIQUID EQUIVALENT TONIGHT OVER THE MAIN
PANHANDLE. WILL KEEP SNOW ACCUMS OVER MAIN PANHANDLE TO AN INCH OR
LESS. MAX UVV AROUND PAYA WILL BE CLOSER TO -10C WHICH IS BOTTOM
END OF DENDRITE GROWTH AREA...AND LIFTING LAYER WILL BE DEEPER SO
PRECIP AMTS SHOULD BE HIGHER...LIKELY AROUND ONE-HALF INCH
TONIGHT. EXPECT FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT TO BE ALL SNOW BUT IT WILL
BE ON WET SIDE. WILL GO WITH 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW FOR PAYA TONIGHT
BEFORE MIXING THEN CHANGING TO RAIN OVERNIGHT.

OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL PICK UP OVER THE ERN GULF TONIGHT AS FRONT
TO THE W CREEPS CLOSER TO THE AREA...AND A SECOND WIND BOOST
SHOULD OCCUR OVER THE FAR ERN GULF AND MAIN PANHANDLE AREA TUE AS
LOW AND WARM FRONT MOVE NWD INTO THE ERN GULF. GALES SHOULD OCCUR
OVER THE FAR WRN GULF MARINE AREAS TONIGHT...THEN DEVELOP OVER THE
ERN GULF MARINE AREA TUE. WILL SEE SCA LEVEL WINDS DEVELOP OVER
THE MORE E-W INNER CHANNELS TUE. LYNN CANAL WILL LIKELY SEE SCA
LEVEL S WINDS TUE DUE TO SW FLOW ALOFT LOWERING PRESSURES OVER THE
FAR NRN AREA AND SRN YUKON...ENHANCING S PRES GRADIENTS. PAGY
COULD GET TO MIN ADVY LEVEL BY LATE THIS EVENING...BUT FOR NOW
WILL KEEP THEM JUST BELOW ADVY LEVELS. OUTER COAST MAY ALSO GET
NEAR ADVY LEVEL WINDS LATE TUE...BUT AGAIN WILL HOLD OFF AS THERE
IS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY ON HOW STRONG THAT LOW MOVING N WILL BE.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRONT CONTINUES EASTWARD THOUGH THE PANHANDLE
WEDNESDAY...A FAIR BIT OF MOISTURE WITH FRONT. MAJORITY OF THE
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT... EXCEPT FOR THE FAR
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GLACIER BAY AND NORTHER LYNN CANAL WHERE
SOME COLD AIR DRAINAGE FROM NORTH WINDS WILL HOLD ENOUGH TO COLD
AIR FOR SOME WET SNOW. WILL CONTINUE TO REVIEW AND CHECK THE SNOW
AMOUNT THROUGH THE AFTER NOON TO ISSUE TIME.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL USHER OUT
THE PRECIPITATION AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF FROM A
DEEP DEVELOPING SYSTEM SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS. THE SURFACE HIGH
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO NORTHWEST CANADA REACH FOR 1050 MB AS
THE UPPER LEVEL BLOCKING RIDGE FORMS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS
RIDGE WILL BECOME THE DOMINATE FEATURE FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INTO
NEXT WEEK...WITH PROLONGED DRY PERIOD. WITHOUT AN ESTABLISH
AREA OF ARCTIC AIR DOESNT LOOK LIKE THERE WILL A SIGNIFICANT COULD
OUT BREAK..MAYBE JUST A LITTLE COOL DOWN.

MODELS HAD SOME DISCREPANCY FROM AROUND LATE THURSDAY INTO
SATURDAY HAVING TO DO WITH WHERE A CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS
POSITIONED. WENT WITH HPC AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS THAT PLACED THIS LOW
WEST OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INSTEAD NORTH OF MONTANA.

CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE EVEN OUT TO THE LATER PERIODS AS
MAJORITY OF THE LONG RANGE MODELS AGREE ON THE BLOCKING FEATURE.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ041>043-051-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-012-021-022-032>036.

&&

RWT/BEZENEK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
433 PM AKST MON NOV 30 2009

AKZ025-010900-
JUNEAU BOROUGH AND NORTHERN ADMIRALTY ISLAND-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...JUNEAU
433 PM AKST MON NOV 30 2009

SOME BLACK ICE AND GENERALLY SLIPPERY CONDITIONS ARE FORMING ON
AREA ROADWAYS THIS EVENING DUE TO WET PAVEMENT AND TEMPERATURES
FALLING BELOW FREEZING. USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING THIS EVENING.
SLIPPERY CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE LATE TONIGHT AS TEMPERATURES
GRADUALLY WARM UP ABOVE FREEZING.