Wind Advisory 89, NWS Juneau, AK

000 
WWAK77 PAJK 260256
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
556 PM AKST WED NOV 25 2009

AKZ028-260400-
/X.EXP.PAJK.WI.Y.0088.000000T0000Z-091126T0300Z/
SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...KETCHIKAN...METLAKATLA
556 PM AKST WED NOV 25 2009

...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 6 PM AKST THIS EVENING... 

BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH SOME
INFREQUENT HIGHER GUSTS IN EXPOSED AREAS THIS EVENING.

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL STATEMENT ON THIS EVENT.

$$

AKZ023-027-260900-
/X.CON.PAJK.WI.Y.0088.000000T0000Z-091126T0900Z/
CAPE DECISION TO SALISBURY SOUND COASTAL AREA-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION COASTAL AREA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SITKA...PORT ALEXANDER...CRAIG...
KLAWOCK
556 PM AKST WED NOV 25 2009

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT...

EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH GUSTS
TO 45 MPH IN EXPOSED LOCATIONS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATE
TONIGHT. THE AWOS AT THE HYDABURG SEAPLANE BASE RECORDED A MAXIMUM
WIND GUST TO 45 MPH AROUND 236 PM THIS AFTERNOON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH. 

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY MIDNIGHT AKST THIS EVENING OR
SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

AKZ018-260915-
/X.CON.PAJK.WI.Y.0089.091126T1200Z-091127T0300Z/
TAIYA INLET AND KLONDIKE HIGHWAY-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...SKAGWAY
556 PM AKST WED NOV 25 2009

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM AKST
THURSDAY...

STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP NEAR TAIYA INLET THURSDAY MORNING
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY MIDNIGHT AKST THIS EVENING OR
SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

000 
WWAK77 PAJK 260735
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1035 PM AKST WED NOV 25 2009

AKZ023-027-260845-
/X.CAN.PAJK.WI.Y.0088.000000T0000Z-091126T0900Z/
CAPE DECISION TO SALISBURY SOUND COASTAL AREA-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION COASTAL AREA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SITKA...PORT ALEXANDER...CRAIG...
KLAWOCK
1035 PM AKST WED NOV 25 2009

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JUNEAU HAS CANCELLED THE WIND
ADVISORY. 

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL STATEMENT ON THIS EVENT.

$$

AKZ018-261500-
/X.CON.PAJK.WI.Y.0089.091126T1200Z-091127T0300Z/
TAIYA INLET AND KLONDIKE HIGHWAY-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...SKAGWAY
1035 PM AKST WED NOV 25 2009

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM AKST
THURSDAY...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM AKST
THURSDAY. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 6 AM AKST THIS EVENING OR
SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

000 
WWAK77 PAJK 261322
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
422 AM AKST THU NOV 26 2009

AKZ018-270115-
/X.CON.PAJK.WI.Y.0089.000000T0000Z-091127T0300Z/
TAIYA INLET AND KLONDIKE HIGHWAY-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...SKAGWAY
422 AM AKST THU NOV 26 2009

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM AKST THIS EVENING...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM AKST THIS EVENING. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 4 PM AKST THIS AFTERNOON OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

000 
WWAK77 PAJK 270031
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
331 PM AKST THU NOV 26 2009

AKZ018-270300-
/X.CON.PAJK.WI.Y.0089.000000T0000Z-091127T0300Z/
TAIYA INLET AND KLONDIKE HIGHWAY-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...SKAGWAY
331 PM AKST THU NOV 26 2009

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM AKST THIS EVENING...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM AKST THIS EVENING. 

SOUTH WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH WILL CONTINUE
UNTIL EARLY THIS EVENING AND THEN RAPIDLY DIMINISH. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 6 PM AKST THIS AFTERNOON OR
SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

000 
WWAK77 PAJK 270106
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
406 PM AKST THU NOV 26 2009


AKZ018-270215-
/X.CAN.PAJK.WI.Y.0089.000000T0000Z-091127T0300Z/
TAIYA INLET AND KLONDIKE HIGHWAY-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...SKAGWAY
406 PM AKST THU NOV 26 2009

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JUNEAU HAS CANCELLED THE WIND
ADVISORY. 

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL STATEMENT ON THIS EVENT.

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
130 PM AKST WED NOV 25 2009

.SHORT TERM...A 980 MB GALE FORCE LOW 150 NM SOUTHWEST OF SITKA
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT ADVECTS NORTHWARD EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
A STRONG 850 MB LLJ CONTINUES TO ADVECT OVER THE PANHANDLE
BRINGING LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN
OUTER COAST WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH. ELSEWHERE...LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
CONTINUES ALONG THE HAINES HIGHWAY AND WITH CONTINUED UPSLOPE
FLOW THROUGH TONIGHT EXPECT ANOTHER 6 TO 10 INCHES. THE
DISSIPATION OF THE GALE FORCE LOW IN THE NORTHERN GULF TONIGHT
AND THE BUILDING SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE TOMORROW ARE
THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEMS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND BOTH THE
12Z NAM AND GFS HAVE INITIALIZED THE MID LEVEL VORTICITY AND
MOISTURE FIELDS WELL. SO BLENDED THE 12Z GFS AND NAM THROUGH THE
SHORT PERIOD THOUGH USED MORE OF A NAM SURFACE WIND FIELD BECAUSE
IT HAD A MORE REALISTIC SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE WITH THE BUILDING SURFACE RIDGE TOMORROW.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

 FOR TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO SEE WINDY CONDITIONS ALONG THE
OUTER COAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT WITH A SECOND WRAP OF STRONG 850 MB
WINDS ADVECTING NORTHWARD. LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO
SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE INNER CHANNELS THROUGH THE NIGHT AS
THE SECOND WRAP MOVES NORTHWARD AND A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE HIGHEST ALONG THE OUTER COAST THROUGH TONIGHT AS
THE 500 MB LOW WILL ADVECT NORTHWARD AND MOVE ONSHORE JUST EAST
OF YAKUTAT BAY KEEPING THE BEST MID LEVEL PVA WEST OF CHATHAM
STRAIT. THE RAIN/SNOW LINE WILL REMAIN IN THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE
THROUGH TONIGHT...HOWEVER COULD SEE A FEW SNOWFLAKES MIX WITH
RAIN IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. STRONG UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUES IN THE
HAINES AREA WITH THE OVERRUNNING SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ALOFT AND
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. BY LATE TONIGHT THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
BECOME SOUTHERLY THROUGHOUT THE PANHANDLE AND THIS WILL CAUSE
SNOW LEVELS TO RISE ABOVE 1000 FEET IN HAINES AND SKAGWAY.

 FOR TOMORROW MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL ADVECT ACROSS THE PANHANDLE
AND THIS WILL HELP TO BUILD A SURFACE RIDGE INTO THE EASTERN GULF
AND PANHANDLE. THE SOUTHERLY SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE
QUITE STRONG ACROSS THE NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS AND EXPECT WIND
ADVY GUSTS NEAR TAIYA INLET WITH GALES IN NORTHERN LYNN CANAL.
WILL ALSO SEE LOCALLY WINDY NEAR CROSS SOUND IN THE MORNING WITH
A STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT THERE. SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVECT ACROSS THE PANHANDLE TOMORROW WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH 500 MB...HOWEVER WITH THE MID
LEVEL RIDGING DONT EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE AS VIGOROUS TOMORROW.
THE HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN ALONG THE EASTERN INNER
CHANNELS TOMORROW WHERE THE TERRAIN ENHANCES THE RAINFALL...WHILE
THE OUTER COAST WILL SEE A FEW SUNNY BREAKS. WITH THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT ALL LEVELS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE
WILL SEE THE SNOW LEVEL REMAIN ABOVE 1500 FEET THROUGH TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM...LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS WITH A RIDGE OVER THE
PANHANDLE QUICKLY TRACKING EAST AS AN UPPER LVL TROUGH TRACKS
INTO THE WESTERN GULF. WEAK 975 MB LOW TRACKS NORTHWARD OVER
KODIAK FRI. SAT INTO SUN A DEVELOPING 970 MB LOW MOVING FROM THE
N PAC INTO THE W GULF. MODELS HAVE BECOMING A BIT MORE CONSISTENT
WITH THE TRACK OF THIS LOW JUST EAST OF PAMD. AS THIS LOW MAKES
LANDFALL AND WEAKENS A SURFACE RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE S GULF
WITH A LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE BERING SEA. GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG
THE COASTAL WATERS WITH SUBSTANTIAL SEAS HEIGHTS...30 PLUS FEET
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION SAT INTO SUN. PRECIP WILL BE A MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE WITH MOSTLY RAIN TO THE
SOUTH. 850 TEMPS REMAINS ABOVE -6C THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A
BRIEF DROP TO ABOUT -10C MON. RAISED QPF AMOUNTS FOR THE WEEKEND
AS MOISTURE CONNECTION LOOKS TO BE WELL ESTABLISHED.

MODELS WERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM
THROUGH ABOUT DAY 5 BEFORE DIVERGING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
LONG TERM. USED A BLEND OF GFS WITH NAM12 UNTIL DAY
4...TRANSITIONING FROM THE SHORT TERM. HPC GUIDANCE WAS A GOOD
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GFS AND EC...WHICH WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE NEXT LOW BUT A BIT OFF IN FINAL TRACK.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE WAS AVERAGE TO A BIT ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE
START OF THE LONG TERM WITH GOOD MODEL CONSTANCY AND AGREEMENT
BETWEEN MODELS. CONFIDENCE DROPS AS MODELS DIVERGE TOWARD THE END
OF THE PERIOD.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT FOR
AKZ023-027.
         WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT FOR
AKZ019.
         WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM AKST THURSDAY FOR
AKZ018.
         WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AKST THIS EVENING FOR AKZ028.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012-041>043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
PKZ011-013-021-022-031>036-051-052.

&&

PSS/PRB