Wind Advisory 84, NWS Juneau, AK

000 
WWAK77 PAJK 161844
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
944 AM AKST MON NOV 16 2009

AKZ023-026>028-162100-
/X.CON.PAJK.WI.Y.0084.000000T0000Z-091116T2100Z/
CAPE DECISION TO SALISBURY SOUND COASTAL AREA-
INNER CHANNELS FROM KUPREANOF ISLAND TO ETOLIN ISLAND-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION COASTAL AREA-
SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SITKA...PORT ALEXANDER...PETERSBURG...
WRANGELL...KAKE...CRAIG...KLAWOCK...KETCHIKAN...METLAKATLA
944 AM AKST MON NOV 16 2009

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON AKST TODAY...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON AKST TODAY. 

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING NORTH ALONG THE SE ALASKA COAST
WITH AN ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT WILL BRING GUSTY NE TO SE WINDS TO
SOUTHERN SE ALASKA THIS MORNING. STRONGEST GUSTS TO 45 MPH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY NOON AKST TODAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

000 
WWAK77 PAJK 162052
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1152 AM AKST MON NOV 16 2009

AKZ027-028-162200-
/X.CAN.PAJK.WI.Y.0084.000000T0000Z-091116T2100Z/
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION COASTAL AREA-
SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CRAIG...KLAWOCK...KETCHIKAN...
METLAKATLA
1152 AM AKST MON NOV 16 2009

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JUNEAU HAS CANCELLED THE WIND
ADVISORY. 

WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE HAVE DIMINISHED.

$$

AKZ021-024-025-170000-
/X.EXB.PAJK.WI.Y.0084.000000T0000Z-091117T0000Z/
EASTERN CHICHAGOF ISLAND-
EASTERN BARANOF ISLAND AND SOUTHERN ADMIRALTY ISLAND-
JUNEAU BOROUGH AND NORTHERN ADMIRALTY ISLAND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HOONAH...ANGOON...JUNEAU
1152 AM AKST MON NOV 16 2009

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM AKST THIS AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JUNEAU HAS ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM AKST THIS AFTERNOON. 

A FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS GUSTING
TO 45 MPH. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 3 PM AKST TODAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

AKZ023-026-170000-
/X.EXT.PAJK.WI.Y.0084.000000T0000Z-091117T0000Z/
CAPE DECISION TO SALISBURY SOUND COASTAL AREA-
INNER CHANNELS FROM KUPREANOF ISLAND TO ETOLIN ISLAND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SITKA...PORT ALEXANDER...PETERSBURG...
WRANGELL...KAKE
1152 AM AKST MON NOV 16 2009

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM AKST THIS AFTERNOON...

THE WIND ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM AKST THIS
AFTERNOON. 

WINDS CONTINUING TO GUST TO 45 MPH WITH AND WILL DIMINISH BY 3
PM. WRANGALL AND KAKE HAD GUSTS TO 45 MPH WITH AN ISOLATED GUST TO
65 MPH AT FIVE FINGER AND CAPE DECISION.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 3 PM AKST TODAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

000 
WWAK77 PAJK 162352
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
252 PM AKST MON NOV 16 2009


AKZ021-023>026-170100-
/X.EXP.PAJK.WI.Y.0084.000000T0000Z-091117T0000Z/
EASTERN CHICHAGOF ISLAND-
CAPE DECISION TO SALISBURY SOUND COASTAL AREA-
EASTERN BARANOF ISLAND AND SOUTHERN ADMIRALTY ISLAND-
JUNEAU BOROUGH AND NORTHERN ADMIRALTY ISLAND-
INNER CHANNELS FROM KUPREANOF ISLAND TO ETOLIN ISLAND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HOONAH...SITKA...PORT ALEXANDER...
ANGOON...JUNEAU...PETERSBURG...WRANGELL...KAKE
252 PM AKST MON NOV 16 2009

...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 3 PM AKST THIS AFTERNOON...

THE WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 3 PM AKST THIS AFTERNOON. 

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
982 MB LOW LOCATED OFFSHORE OF THE PANHANDLE MOVES NORTH OF THE
AREA. WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH WERE OBSERVED AT POINT
ALEXANDER TO FIVE FINGERS LIGHT HOUSE.

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL STATEMENT ON THIS EVENT.

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
537 AM AKST MON NOV 16 2009

.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS A BROAD UPPER
LEVELS TROUGH OVER THE GULF. AT THE SURFACE A WEAKENING LOW IN
THE N GULF CONTINUES TO BRING SHOWER ACTIVITY TO PAYA AND WILL
LINGER THERE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. TO THE SOUTH A SERIES OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS ARE TRACKING OUT OF THE NORTHERN PACIFIC TOWARDS
THE QUEEN CHARLOTTES. THE FIRST LOW HAS BEGUN A NORTHERLY TRACK
ALONG THE COAST...PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS HAD THE SYSTEM A BIT MORE
TO THE EAST. THE FRONTAL BAND ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW BRING
MIXED PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WITH SOME GUSTY
WINDS. THE THROUGH IS THE WINDS GUST WHILE HIGH WILL BE SHORT
LIVED...SO DECIDED AGAINST A WIND ADVISORY. AGAIN WILL HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE ON THE GUSTS TO SEE IF THE SECONDARY WRAP KEEPS THE
GUSTS HIGH. THE NEXT TWO LOWS WILL BEGIN TO MERGE TOGETHER
CAUSING A MORE NEGATIVE TILT TO LOW NUMBER ONE AND TRACK THAT LOW
MORE TO THE NORTH WEST. A THIRD STRONGER SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP INTO
TUESDAY WITH COLD AIR MOVING IN FROM THE BERING SEA. THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE LOOKING TO STAY DRY WITH NORTHERLY FLOW. FOR THE
CENTRAL PANHANDLE EXPECTED THE EASTERLY DOWN SLOPE TO KEEP THE
AREAS DRY. PAPG IS THE QUESTION FOR THE DAY AS SNOW GUIDANCE IS
JUST NEAR WINTER ADVISORY LEVELS. SOME UNCERTAINTY IF THERE WILL
BE A MIX OF RAIN TO KEEP SNOW AMOUNTS DOWN. DEW POINTS SHOULD BE
LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP ALL SNOW BUT WITH UNCERTAINTY KEPT SNOW TOTAL
AT 2 TO 4 INCHES. THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE SHOULD SWITCH TO ALL
RAIN THROUGH THE MORNING WITH THE WARM AIR BROUGHT UP FROM THE
SOUTH.

 USED THE UKMET AS THE GFS KEEP THE LOW A BIT TOO FAR TO THE EAST
AND DID NOT RESOLVE THE INTERACTION OF THE NEXT TOW SYSTEMS AS
WELL AS THE UK. 500MB PVA IN THE GFS LOOKED TO BE WRAPPED INTO
THE LOW WITH THE UK PVA ALONG THE EDGE. THE EC WAS A BIT TOO
QUICK WITH THE NORTHERLY PROGRESSION OF THE LOW AND THE NAM JUST
DID NOT INITIALIZED VERY WELL.

 WITH THE COMPLEX FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE.
INTERACTION OF THE SYSTEMS IN THE N PACIFIC AND S GULF WILL BE
THE BIGGEST QUESTION.

&&

.LONG TERM...UPPER LEVEL AGREEMENT ACTUALLY PRETTY GOOD THROUGH
00Z ON THE 24TH BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF. BIGGEST DIFFERENCES
OCCURRING NEXT WEEKEND WHEN ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE IN TRACKING
SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. MAJOR
THEMES IN THE EXTENDED RANGE INCLUDE AN UPPER LOW DROPPING OUT OF
THE INTERIOR AND INTO THE CENTRAL GULF ON THURSDAY. THIS FEATURE
WEAKENS RAPIDLY AS FAIRLY LARGE SHORT WAVE SWEEPS EAST ACROSS THE
GULF AND INTO THE WEST COAST EARLY THIS WEEKEND.
THEREAFTER...SEVERAL SHORT WAVES ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LOW IN
THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE INTERIOR SWING THROUGH THE GULF AND
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE MAKING FOR AN UNSETTLED...ONSHORE WEATHER
REGIME.

AT THE SURFACE...SOME SIGNIFICANT GFS ENSEMBLE SPREAD AT THE START
OF THE EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST BUT WELL SOUTH OF THE PANHANDLE.
OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC BOTH RESOLVING TWO SEPARATE LOWS IN THE
GULF AT THE START WHEREAS ENSEMBLE MEAN SMOOTHS THEM OVER INTO ONE
ELONGATED FEATURE. FIRST SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIVERGENCE AT THE
SURFACE DEALS WITH INTENSITY OF A LOW FORECAST TO ENTER THE
SOUTHEAST GULF FROM THE SOUTH ON THURSDAY. GFS MAINTAINS THIS
FEATURE SIGNIFICANTLY DEEPER THAN EITHER GFS OR UKMET. OPTED FOR
THE 16/00Z UKMET/ECMWF SOLUTION AND AS A RESULT...BACKED OFF ON
THE WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLE AND
ASSOCIATED MARINE ZONES. 06Z GFS REMAINS OUT OF STEP WITH EUROPEAN
GUIDANCE. BY SATURDAY...EC AND GFS IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A
A 978-982 MB LOW IN CENTRAL TO NORTHERN GULF. MAJOR DIFFERENCE
WITH REGARD TO PANHANDLE WEATHER HAS TO DO WITH THE SHAPE AND TIME
OF ARRIVAL OF THE ASSOCIATED FRONT ALONG THE OUTER COAST. WENT
WITH MORE OF AN EC SOLUTION WHICH BETTER DEPICTED THE EXPECTED WARM
TYPE OCCLUSION AND A WEAK TRIPLE POINT LOW FORMING WEST OF PRINCE
OF WALES ISLAND.

NOT A LOT OF CHANGES TO DAILY HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS SUPPORTING AT LEAST A RAIN-SNOW MIX...IF NOT
STRAIGHT SNOW...UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND WHEN AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT
WILL ELIMINATE SNOW FROM THE FORECAST FOR ALL BUT THE FAR NORTHERN
INNER CHANNELS AND YAKUTAT. HOWEVER...BEFORE THE TRANSITION TO
STRAIGHT RAIN...MANY LOCATIONS COULD SEE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES OF NEW
SNOW LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS MID LEVEL
MOISTURE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH OVER RUNS LOW LEVEL COLD AIR.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-013-031-033>036-041-042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ043-051-052.

&&

PRB/FRITSCH