Wind Advisory 78, NWS Juneau, AK

000 
WWAK77 PAJK 302235 CCA
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
233 PM AKDT FRI OCT 30 2009


AKZ025-310500-
/X.COR.PAJK.WI.Y.0078.091030T2233Z-091031T0500Z/
JUNEAU BOROUGH AND NORTHERN ADMIRALTY ISLAND-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...JUNEAU
233 PM AKDT FRI OCT 30 2009

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM AKDT THIS EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JUNEAU HAS ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM AKDT THIS EVENING.

STRONG OUTFLOW OUT OF CHANNELED TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WILL CAUSE STRONG WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH FOR AREAS NEAR AND
SOUTH OF DOWNTOWN JUNEAU. WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH HAVE ALREADY BEEN
OBSERVED THIS AFTERNOON AT SOUTH DOUGLAS. WINDS WILL DISSIPATE
LATE THIS EVENING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 900 PM AKDT THIS EVENING OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

000 
WWAK77 PAJK 310454
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
854 PM AKDT FRI OCT 30 2009

AKZ025-310600-
/X.EXP.PAJK.WI.Y.0078.000000T0000Z-091031T0500Z/
JUNEAU BOROUGH AND NORTHERN ADMIRALTY ISLAND-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...JUNEAU
854 PM AKDT FRI OCT 30 2009

...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 9 PM AKDT THIS EVENING...

THE WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 9 PM AKDT THIS EVENING. 

THE STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THROUGH TONIGHT.

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL STATEMENT ON THIS EVENT.

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
158 PM AKDT FRI OCT 30 2009

.SHORT TERM...YET ANOTHER LOW IS CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE
PANHANDLE AND WILL MOVE THROUGH RATHER QUICKLY TONIGHT. SATELLITE
AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A ELONGATED LOW WEST OF THE QUEEN
CHARLOTTE ISLANDS MOVING TO THE NE. THE CLOUD AND PRECIP SHIELD
IN FRONT OF IT COVERS MOST OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLE
AS WELL AS PART OF THE NORTHERN HALF. PRECIPITATION HAS ONLY BEEN
OBSERVED FROM A LINE FROM PAPG TO PAAP AND SOUTHWARD. NORTH OF
THIS LINE, OFFSHORE DOWNSLOPE WINDS ARE PREVENTING ANY PRECIP
THAT IS FALLING FROM REACHING THE GROUND THUS FAR. THE OFFSHORE
FLOW IS NOTED IN THE VELOCITY RADAR IMAGE FROM PACG AS A
CONSISTENT SWATH OF AWAY VELOCITIES SW OF THE RADAR. TOWARD
PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND THE VELOCITIES TURN MORE ONSHORE
ACCOUNTING FOR THE WET WEATHER IN THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. YAKUTAT
IS THE ODD ONE OUT TODAY AS THEY ARE EXPERIENCING MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES.

MEANWHILE, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE PANHANDLE IS
TIGHTENING AS THE LOW COMES NORTH. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE
ALREADY BLOWING IN SOME OF THE N-S CHANNELS. ELDRED ROCK, WHEN IT
DOES REPORT A DECENT OB, IS BLOWING AT GALE FORCE, AND POINT
RETREAT HAS A MAX SCA WIND AT THE MOMENT. STEVENS PASSAGE IS ALSO
KICKING UP SOME SCA WINDS AS EVIDENT BY THE OBS FROM POINT BISHOP
AND FIVE FINGERS.

AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE TONIGHT, PRECIP
WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTH. THE CHALLENGE STILL REMAINS ON HOW
FAR NW THE PRECIP WILL GET. CURRENT THINKING HAS MOST OF THE
MOISTURE AND LIFTING ALONG AND EAST OF CHATHAM STRAIT YET THE
PRECIP WILL STILL BE FIGHTING THE DRYING AFFECT OF DOWNSLOPE WINDS
IN THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. CONSEQUENTLY HAVE PLACED THE HIGHEST
POPS ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM JUNEAU TO HOONAH TO SITKA. AND
HAVE AT LEAST CHANCE POPS FOR THE REST OF THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE.
PRECIP TYPE WILL ALSO BE A CHALLENGE. THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE
PRECIP COULD FALL AS SNOW OR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW LATE TONIGHT
AND EARLY TOMORROW. CURRENTLY THINK THAT THE BULK OF THE PRECIP
WILL BE PULLING AWAY BY THE TIME IT GETS COLD ENOUGH TO START
SNOWING. YET A DECENT AMOUNT OF PRECIP COULD STILL BE IN THE
JUNEAU AREA BY THAT POINT SO HAVE PUT UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION IN FOR JUNEAU LATE TONIGHT.

SYSTEM IS A LITTLE TOO WEAK AND FAST MOVING TO BUILD UP SOME GOOD
WINDS, SO EXCEPT FOR THE CHANNEL WINDS FARTHER NORTH, I AM NOT
EXPECTING ANY STRONG WINDS FROM THIS SYSTEM AT THE PRESENT TIME.
AS SUCH NO WIND ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN POSTED.

FOR TOMORROW, A WEAK LOW WILL FORM IN THE NORTHERN GULF AND WILL
SIT THERE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO BRINGING ONSHORE FLOW, SHOWERS
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE PANHANDLE. WITH THE COLDER AIR OVER
THE WARMER OCEAN WATERS, THERE WILL BE SOME INSTABILITY. HAVE
MENTIONED THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE SOUTHERN
COASTAL ZONES AND IN ZONE 27 FOR TOMORROW WHERE THE GREATEST
INSTABILITY EXISTS.

USED THE NAM FOR THE UPDATES TO THE FORECAST, AS I THOUGHT IT
REPRESENTED THE APPROACHING LOW THE BEST OF THE VARIOUS MODELS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE DUE TO GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT AND CONSISTENCY

.LONG TERM...THE 12Z 500 MB GFS 5 WAVE PATTERN WITH 12Z NAEFS AND
ECMWF ENSEMBLE SUPPORT CONTINUE TO KEEP THE LONG WAVE TROUGH IN THE GULF
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING WITH WEAK MID LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARIES
ADVECTING ACROSS THE PANHANDLE OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS MID LEVEL
PVA COMBINED WITH ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH 500 MB WILL BRING A GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE...HOWEVER 12Z
ENSEMBLES ARE SHOWING ANOTHER LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE
GULF TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE SOME DISTINCT TIMING
DIFFERENCES WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE NEXT GALE FORCE LOW INTO THE
WESTERN GULF NEXT THURSDAY. KEPT CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE
BLENDING TOWARD THE HPC SOLUTION WHICH USED PRIMARILY THE 00Z
ECMWF ENSEMBLE SOLUTION DAYS 6 THROUGH 8. THE 12Z GFS IS HAVING A
DIFFICULT TIME INITIALIZING THE BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY WEST OF THE
DATELINE THAT WILL DEVELOP INTO THE NEXT GALE FORCE LOW AND
THEREFORE THE 12Z GFS WAS DISCOUNTED AS TOO QUICK BRINGING A 980
MB LOW INTO THE WESTERN GULF ON TUESDAY. NEAR HAND OFF WITH SHORT
TERM BLENDED TOWARD A 12Z UKMET/NAM SOLUTION THROUGH DAY 3 TO KEEP THE
RESIDUAL LOW IN THE WESTERN GULF ON SUNDAY AS THE 12Z GFS
CONTINUES TO ADVECT THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EASTWARD TOO QUICKLY.

BANDS OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS
NORTH OF FREDERICK SOUND AS TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO NEAR
FREEZING. ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE COULD SEE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY EVENING AS A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND
CAA THROUGH 500 MB ADVECT INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF INCREASING
THE INSTABILITY WITH CAPE VALUES NEAR 200 J/KG. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LOCALLY BREEZY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE AND NEAR INTERIOR
PASSES THROUGH MONDAY AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN
STRONGEST NORTH OF THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR. OTHERWISE WINDS WILL
ONLY GUST TO 20 KNOTS NEAR THE STRONGER SHOWERS THROUGH MONDAY.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WILL SEE PRECIP AMOUNTS DIMINISH WITH THE
OFFSHORE WIND COMPONENT INCREASING ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND WEAK
MID LEVEL RIDGING ALOFT. ANOTHER GALE FORCE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE GULF AND ACROSS THE PANHANDLE TOWARD THURSDAY AND FRIDAY OF
NEXT WEEK...BUT WITH THE SURFACE LOW REMAIN IN THE WESTERN GULF
THROUGH THE EVENT EXPECT THE STRONGEST WINDS TO REMAIN ALONG THE
OUTER COAST WITH HIGH GALES IN THE NORTHERN GULF AS BARRIER FLOW
WILL ENHANCE THE SURFACE WINDS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE AFTER WEDNESDAY AS TIMING THE
MOVEMENT OF THE NEXT GALE FORCE FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE PANHANDLE
IS CONTINUING TO BE DIFFICULT WITH THE 12Z GFS FLIP-FLOPPING ON
ITS SOLUTION. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT ANOTHER LONG WAVE TROUGH
WILL ADVECT INTO THE GULF LATE NEXT WEEK AS THERE IS LOW ENSEMBLE
SPREAD IN THE 12Z SOLUTIONS. WITH THIS IN MIND TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK WITH PRECIP AMOUNTS
ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ011>013.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ021-022-031>036-041>043-051.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ052.

&&

EAL/PSS