Wind Advisory 67, NWS Juneau, AK

000 
WWAK77 PAJK 060401
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
801 PM AKDT MON OCT 5 2009


AKZ018-060515-
/X.EXP.PAJK.WI.Y.0067.000000T0000Z-091006T0400Z/
TAIYA INLET AND KLONDIKE HIGHWAY-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...SKAGWAY
801 PM AKDT MON OCT 5 2009

...WIND ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

THE WIND ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ARE CONTINUING BUT GUSTS ABOVE 40 MPH ARE NOT
EXPECTED. 

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL STATEMENT ON THIS EVENT.

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
120 PM AKDT MON OCT 5 2009

.SHORT TERM...A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW IN THE NORTHERN GULF AND
WELL DEFINED BAROCLINIC LEAF ON THE 20Z SATELLITE WILL CONTINUE
TO ADVECT EASTWARD INTO THIS EVENING. THE STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY
SURFACE PRESSURE AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO THE YUKON AND
NORTHERN CANADA WILL BE THE FORECAST PROBLEM OF THE DAY AS WINDS
WILL REMAIN LOCALLY WINDY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE INTO THE
EVENING AND COULD GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 MPH. THE BIORKA RADAR AS
WELL AS THE LOCAL JUNEAU PROFILER NETWORK SHOW WINDS IN ACCESS OF
45 KNOTS NEAR 2000 FEET AND AS THE VERTICAL ENVIRONMENT BECOMES
MORE CONVECTIVE TONIGHT COULD SEE THESE WINDS MIX DOWN TO THE
SURFACE. RAIN CONTINUES TO SPREAD SOUTHWARD ALONG THE PANHANDLE
AS 850 MB WINDS BECOME MORE ONSHORE AND INCREASE TO 60 KNOTS.
BLENDED INHERITED GRIDS TOWARD THE 12Z NAM AND LOCAL WRF SOLUTION
TODAY TO CAPTURE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE COAST MOUNTAINS
AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PACKAGE AS MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT
WITH THE SURFACE WIND FIELD AND DIMINISHING PRECIP TONIGHT.

 FOR TONIGHT THE SURFACE LOW AND MID LEVEL TROUGH NOW IN THE
NORTHERN GULF WILL ADVECT INTO THE YUKON. AS THE SURFACE LOW
ADVECTS INTO NORTHERN CANADA BY LATE TONIGHT THE SOUTHERLY
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN ALLOWING THE LOCALLY
WINDY CONDITIONS TO DIMINISH. WILL SEE GALES NEAR CROSS SOUND AND
ALONG LYNN CANAL THIS EVENING BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH WITH GUSTS TO
35 MPH NEAR TAIYA INLET. ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE WILL ONLY SEE LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS AS THE
STRONGEST SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN ALONG THE BORDER
WITH THE YUKON. THE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PANHANDLE WILL BECOME SCATTERED SHOWERS BY LATE TONIGHT AS CAA AT
500 TO 850 MB WILL ALLOW THE VERTICAL ENVIRONMENT TO BECOME
CONVECTIVE. LATE TONIGHT THE 850 MB WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY
ALLOWING CLEARING SKIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE.

 FOR TOMORROW NORTHERLY 850 MB WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL
STRENGTHEN ALONG THE OUTER COAST ALLOWING THE MAJORITY OF THE
PANHANDLE TO SEE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WILL SEE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN INNER CHANNELS IN THE
MORNING BEFORE THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AS WHOLE ADVECTS INTO BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND MID LEVEL NVA MOVES ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. A SURFACE
HIGH TO 1035 MB WILL BUILD INTO THE YUKON BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON
ALLOWING THE NORTHERLY WINDS TO INCREASE TO 20 KNOTS ALONG LYNN
CANAL WITH THE INCREASED NORTHERLY SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT.
COULD SEE PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE TOMORROW
MORNING AS LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR
RADIATION FOG IN THE MORNING...ESPECIALLY NEAR PAYA.

&&

.LONG TERM...STRONG UPPER RIDGE ALONG WEST COAST AND NORTHEAST
PACIFIC WILL DOMINATE SOUTHEAST ALASKA WEATHER WHILE A DEEP LONG
WAVE TROUGH ALONG 160W WILL PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THIS
WILL BRING RELATIVELY DRIER CONDITIONS WITH COOL NIGHT AND MILD
DAYS FOR FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA THIS WEEK. NCEP AND GLOBAL MODELS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT/CONSISTENCY FOR PAST 3 RUNS. STILL PREFER ECMFW
WHICH OFFERS MORE DETAIL IN SURFACE PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA
AND SOUTHERN YUKON. MAIN DIFFERENCES IN POSITION AND AND TIMING OF
SURFACE FEATURES IS MOST PREVALENT IN WESTERN ALASKA AND WILL HAVE
MINIMAL IMPACT ON SOUTHEAST ALASKA SENSIBLE WEATHER. SINCE HPC
INCORPORATED EC INTO THEIR SOLUTION USED THIS WITH OF BLEND OF
EXISTING GRIDS FOR TODAY.

FIRST WARM FRONT WILL PUSH TO COASTAL SOUTHEAST ALASKA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY. OVERALL DO NOT EXPECT TOO MUCH PRECIP FROM THIS
FEATURE. RIDGE REBUILDS OVER PANHANDLE THURSDAY NIGHT AND DOESNT
SHIFT EAST UNTIL SATURDAY. MAIN OCCLUSION PUSHES INTO THE EASTERN GULF
FRIDAY BUT SLOWS AND DOES NOT PUSH THROUGH SOUTHEAST ALASKA UNTIL
THE WEEKEND.

WIND WILL STAY MIN SMCR OR LESS THROUGH THE WEEK. INNER CHANNELS
EXPECTED TO GO NE MID WEEK AND COULD SEE SOME STRONGER GUTS OUT OF
INTERIOR PASSES WITH OT MUCH EXPECTED FOR PUBLIC ZONES. WITH
BREAKS IN CLOUDS...PARTICULARLY AT NIGHT...LOWS EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND FREEZING FOR WIND SHELTERED INNER CHANNELS. MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS DURING THE DAY WILL LIKELY KEEP DAYTIME HIGH DOWN IN THE 40S.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012-022.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-013-021-031>035-042-043-051-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ041.

&&

PSS/MM