Wind Advisory 66, NWS Juneau, AK

000 
WWAK77 PAJK 301239
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
439 AM AKDT WED SEP 30 2009

AKZ023-027-028-302100-
/X.CON.PAJK.WI.Y.0066.090930T2000Z-091001T0200Z/
CAPE DECISION TO SALISBURY SOUND COASTAL AREA-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION COASTAL AREA-
SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SITKA...PORT ALEXANDER...CRAIG...
KLAWOCK...KETCHIKAN...METLAKATLA
439 AM AKDT WED SEP 30 2009

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM AKDT
THIS EVENING...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM AKDT
THIS EVENING. 

A WEATHER FRONT WILL APPROACH THE OUTER COAST THIS MORNING AND
GENERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH. WIND GUSTS WILL INCREASE
UP TO AROUND 45 MPH BY MIDDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 1 PM AKDT TODAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

PSS

000 
WWAK77 PAJK 302032
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1232 PM AKDT WED SEP 30 2009

AKZ023-027-028-010200-
/X.CON.PAJK.WI.Y.0066.000000T0000Z-091001T0200Z/
CAPE DECISION TO SALISBURY SOUND COASTAL AREA-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION COASTAL AREA-
SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SITKA...PORT ALEXANDER...CRAIG...
KLAWOCK...KETCHIKAN...METLAKATLA
1232 PM AKDT WED SEP 30 2009

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM AKDT THIS EVENING...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM AKDT THIS EVENING. 

SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 6 PM AKDT TODAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

BECKER

000 
WWAK77 PAJK 010145
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
545 PM AKDT WED SEP 30 2009

AKZ023-027-010245-
/X.EXP.PAJK.WI.Y.0066.000000T0000Z-091001T0200Z/
CAPE DECISION TO SALISBURY SOUND COASTAL AREA-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION COASTAL AREA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SITKA...PORT ALEXANDER...CRAIG...
KLAWOCK
545 PM AKDT WED SEP 30 2009

...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 6 PM AKDT THIS EVENING...

THE WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 6 PM AKDT THIS EVENING. 

WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING BEHIND A FRONT THAT IS CONTINUING
TO MOVE INLAND.

$$

AKZ028-010500-
/X.EXT.PAJK.WI.Y.0066.000000T0000Z-091001T0500Z/
SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...KETCHIKAN...METLAKATLA
545 PM AKDT WED SEP 30 2009

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM AKDT THIS EVENING...

THE WIND ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM AKDT THIS EVENING. 

SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 9 PM AKDT THIS EVENING OR
SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

000 
WWAK77 PAJK 010444
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
844 PM AKDT WED SEP 30 2009


AKZ028-010545-
/X.EXP.PAJK.WI.Y.0066.000000T0000Z-091001T0500Z/
SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...KETCHIKAN...METLAKATLA
844 PM AKDT WED SEP 30 2009

...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 9 PM AKDT THIS EVENING...

THE WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 9 PM AKDT THIS EVENING. 

WINDS WILL DIMINISH BEHIND A FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE PANHANDLE.

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1245 PM AKDT TUE SEP 29 2009

.SHORT TERM...990 MB LOW NEAR PASN HAS A TRIPLE PT FEATURE DVLPG
INVOF PADQ AT THIS TIME. AN INFLECTION SHOULD BE FORMING ON THE
POLAR FRONT ZONE INVOF PADQ AT THIS TIME. 12Z WED THE LOW SHOULD
BE 120 NM S OF PAMD, AND ALREADY TO 994 MB WITH AN OCCLUSION
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP. 00Z THU THE LOW LOW SHOULD BE 990 MB 120 NM
SW OF PAYA WITH A MORE MATURE OCFNT EXTENDING TO A TRIPLE POINT
ABT TO MOVE ONSHORE PASI. THE STRONGEST WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
LANDFALL WILL OCCUR ALONG THE OUTER COAST S OF SITKA, AND GIVEN
THE TRACK OF THE JET STREAM, WILL ALSO EXTEND TO MOST OF THE SRN
PNHDL 00Z THU.

 THE TRACK OF THE DVLPG LOW AND THE SXN OF POLAR FRONT ZONE WAS
ALREADY IN A GOOD DENSITY OF RAOB SITES, AND COMBINED WITH THE
MODEL CONSENSUS, GIVES A HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECASTS FOR
TONIGHT AND WED. FRONTAL BOUNDARIES  ARE TOO SMALL FOR THE MODELS
TO DEPICT DIRECTLY, BUT 1000 MB VORT FIELDS CAN OFTEN BE USED FOR
APPROXIMATE  NPAC LOCATIONS AND THE AGREEMENT ON TODAYS MODEL
RUNS IS GOOD.

 THE MODEL DIFFERENCES ARE SMALL, BUT THE NAM WAS EASIER  TO
RECONCILE WITH PRESSURE FIELD AT THIS TIME. CSP WINDS FM THE E AT
ABT 10KT FOR LAST SVRL HOURS. COL IN NAM AT  18Z IS SE OF CSP AND
WOULD PROVIDE E WINDS THERE. GFS WOULD  HAVE THE COL RIGHT OVR
THE STATION, AND OTHER THAN A WEAK  LAND BREEZE, WOULD NOT GIVE
SGNFCNT E WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THE EXPECTED CIRCULATION PATTERN ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA
THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIODS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY A RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE
GULF FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE NAM HANDLES THE TROUGH A
LITTLE DEEPER THAN THE GFS WHILE PUSHING THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ALONG THE BOTTOM OF THE TROUGH FARTHER SOUTHWARD INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST ON LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. BLENDING THE NAM AND
GFS EQUALLY INTO THE INHERITED GRIDS FOR THE EARLIER PORTIONS OF
THE LONG TERM WOULD MAKE A GOOD FINE TUNE FOR THE AFTERNOON
PACKAGE. AN OMEGA BLOCK FORMING ACROSS THE GULF SEEMS A BIT
STRONGER THAN THE PREVIOUS THOUGHT.

 AT THE LOWER LEVELS...A SURFACE LOW OFF THE YAKUTAT BAY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE
THROUGH FRIDAY. A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE
EASTERN GULF AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA FROM FRIDAY THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT. AS THE NEXT LOW IN THE NORTH PACIFIC DRIFTING
NORTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN GULF OVER THE WEEKEND...AN ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. DURING THIS TIME FRAME...THE ECMWF IS
MORE AMPLIFIED AND DOES NOT COMPARE WELL WITH THE GFS AND HPC
GUIDANCE. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS GENERALLY SHOW GOOD CONTINUITY.
AS MODELS DIFFER IN HOW QUICKLY THEY ERODE THE RIDGE ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF...AND IN ORDER TO MAINTAIN THE FORECAST
CONSISTENCY... BLENDING THE GFS INTO THE EXISTING GRIDS FOR THE
WEEKEND AND THROUGH THE EARLY NEXT WEEK WOULD WORK OUT FAIRLY
NICE. THUS WILL LEAN OVER THE NAM AND GFS COMBINATION THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING THEN GENERALLY FOLLOW THE GFS GUIDANCE BLENDING
INTO THE INHERITED GRIDS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

 THE LOW OFF THE YAKUTAT BAY ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE PANHANDLE WITH LIKELY POPS.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL DECREASE A BIT BUT SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND ROUGH
SEAS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE OUTSIDE WATERS
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. POPS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AS A RIDGE
BUILDING ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
AS THE RIDGE CONTINUING TO BUILD EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN
GULF...A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE LOCAL
REGION THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. CLOUDINESS WILL DECREASE EARLY
FRIDAY AND RAIN FREE PERIODS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. CLOUDS
AND POPS WILL INCREASE AGAIN WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED
WITH A LOW IN THE NORTH PACIFIC DRIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
WESTERN GULF THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY NEXT WEEK. LIKELY
POPS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE PANHANDLE OVER THE WEEKEND THEN
GRADUALLY INCREASE TO LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 6 PM AKDT WEDNESDAY FOR AKZ023-027-
     028.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ041>043-051.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-013-021-022-031>036-052.

&&

JBT/AHN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
249 PM AKDT TUE SEP 29 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0453 AM     FREEZE           YAKUTAT                 59.54N 139.73W
09/29/2009  M27.00 F                            AK   ASOS

            YAKUTAT ASOS MEASURED A LOW TEMPERATURE OF 27 DEGREES

0453 AM     FREEZE           HOONAH                  58.11N 135.44W
09/29/2009  M27.00 F                            AK   AWOS

            HOONAH AWOS MEASURED A LOW TEMPERATURE OF 27 DEGREES

0553 AM     FREEZE           JUNEAU                  58.30N 134.41W
09/29/2009  M28.00 F                            AK   ASOS

            LOW TEMPERATURE OF 28 DEGREES RECORDED AT JUNEAU
            INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT.

&&

CVP