Wind Advisory 59, NWS Juneau, AK

000 
WWAK77 PAJK 180306
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
706 PM AKDT THU SEP 17 2009


AKZ027-180415-
/X.CAN.PAJK.WI.Y.0059.000000T0000Z-090918T0500Z/
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION COASTAL AREA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CRAIG...KLAWOCK
706 PM AKDT THU SEP 17 2009

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JUNEAU HAS CANCELLED THE WIND
ADVISORY. 

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL STATEMENT ON THIS EVENT.

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
553 AM AKDT THU SEP 17 2009

.SHORT TERM...THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A TROF OF LOW
PRESSURE DRIFTING NORTH OVER THE EASTERN GULF. THIS TROF IS
PRODUCING RAIN SHOWERS WITH SOME STRONG BANDS ROTATING OVER THE
PANHANDLE. THERE IS SOME GUSTY WINDS OVER LAND ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS TROF BUT MAINLY THE STRONG WINDS ARE OVER THE MARINE WATERS
WITH SOME AREAS OF SMALL CRAFT WINDS.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST GULF WILL SLOWLY DRIFT
TO THE EAST TO BE SOUTH OF KODIAK AND IN DOING SO VORT LOBES INTO
THE EASTERN GULF. THE SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE PANHANDLE WITH MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE
SOUTH. A MODERATE SHORTWAVE TROF WILL LIFT OUT OF THE NORTH
PACIFIC ALONG WITH A DEVELOPING LOW. AS THIS FEATURE LIFTS NORTH
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE DIFLUENT AND THE EASTERLY
WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL INCREASE. AS THIS HAPPENS THE SHOWERS
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE WILL DIMINISH FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE
DAY. THE WINDS OVER THE PANHANDLE WILL REMAIN TO BE 10 TO 20 MPH
OVER THE LAND AND NEAR 20KT OVER MARINE WATERS WITH LOCAL AREAS OF
SMALL CRAFT THIS MORNING BUT THEY SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY
AS THE SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING OVER THE PANHANDLE FROM CANADA WILL
WEAKEN SOME.

THE DEVELOPING LOW WILL DEEPEN TO THE UPPER 990S AS IT ROLLS UP
THE COAST THIS EVENING AND BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS NW INTO
THE NORTHERN GULF LATE TONIGHT. THIS LOW WILL INCREASE THE WINDS
OVER THE SE GULF TO SMALL CRAFT AND TO MIN GALE IN CLARENCE STRAIT
BUT AS THE LOW WEAKENS AND LIFTS NORTH THESES WINDS WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT. ALSO AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTH THE EASTERLY
WINDS NEAR CROSS SOUND WILL INCREASE TO 25KT. IT WILL BECOME WINDY
OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES LATE THIS AFTER WITH GUST TO 35 MPH AS
THE LOW ROLLS UP ALONG THE COAST. WINDS OVER THE REST OF THE INNER
CHANNELS WILL BACK AROUND TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
AND RANGE FROM 10 TO 20 KT WITH SOME AREAS NEAR INTERIOR SEEING
GUSTS NEAR 35 KT.

RAIN WILL BEGIN TO MOVE BACK INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN AREAS EARLY
THIS EVENING WITH STRONG MID AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AS THE WARM
FRONT LIFTS OVER THE AREA. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTH BUT
WITH MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW AT THE SURFACE THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH
RAIN OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD IN THE EVENING BUT AS THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW INCREASE AND BECOME LESS DIFLUENT RAIN WILL BE LIKELY NEAR
THE JUNEAU AND HOONAH AREAS. FURTHER NORTH THERE WILL BE JUST OF
SOME RAIN AS THE NORTHERN WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL KEEP THE
CHANCE OF RAIN LOWER.

&&

.LONG TERM...MID RANGE MODELS SOLUTIONS CONTINUED TO FIRM UP ON
TRACK OF THE NEXT MAJOR SYSTEM. FIRST DEALING WITH REMNANTS OF
CIRCULATION OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA THAT IS GETTING MOVED ONSHORE
WITH ONE LAST TRAILING LOW MOVING OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
PANHANDLE FRIDAY NIGHT. SHOULD SEE A RIDGE TRYING TO BUILD OVER
THE PANHANDLE AREA SATURDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. MODEL
SOLUTIONS TAKE THIS LOW TO SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS IT BEGINS TO FILL FROM THE MID 970 RANGE SUNDAY
MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BAND WILL SPREAD ONSHORE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHOULD SEE GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE OUTER
COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AT LEAST.

STARTING NEXT WEEK PROBLEMS BEGIN TO ARISE WITH LATER DAYS
PORTION OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE ESPECIALLY WITH A LOW FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT. 06Z GFS RUN BACKED OFF A LITTLE FROM WHAT THE 00Z RUN HAD
FOR THIS LOW BUT STILL A AT LEAST 10 MB DIFFERENT AT 12Z ALTHOUGH
ECMWF CATCHES UP BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. DUE TO THE LARGE
DIFFERENCES AT THE TIME BEING AND THE DIFFERENCE BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT OVER THE PANHANDLE FROM WHAT HPC GUIDANCE WAS FROM
YESTERDAY... DEFERRED MAKING CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED TIME FRAME TO
DAY SHIFT.

CONFIDENCE FOR THE FORECAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK IS MODERATE.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ036.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-013-022-033-035-041>043-051-052.

&&

ABJ/BEZENEK