Wind Advisory 52, NWS Juneau, AK

000 
WWAK77 PAJK 300155
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
555 PM AKDT SAT AUG 29 2009


AKZ024>028-300300-
/X.EXP.PAJK.WI.Y.0052.000000T0000Z-090830T0200Z/
EASTERN BARANOF ISLAND AND SOUTHERN ADMIRALTY ISLAND-
JUNEAU BOROUGH AND NORTHERN ADMIRALTY ISLAND-
INNER CHANNELS FROM KUPREANOF ISLAND TO ETOLIN ISLAND-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION COASTAL AREA-
SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ANGOON...JUNEAU...PETERSBURG...
WRANGELL...KAKE...CRAIG...KLAWOCK...KETCHIKAN...METLAKATLA
555 PM AKDT SAT AUG 29 2009

...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 6 PM AKDT THIS EVENING...

THE WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 6 PM AKDT THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH
CONTINUED LOCALLY WINDY...WINDS ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH. A FEW GUSTS TO 35 MPH CAN STILL BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS.

THIS WILL BE THE LAST STATEMENT FOR THIS EVENT.

$$

MM

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
554 AM AKDT SAT AUG 29 2009

.SHORT TERM...GOES WV AND IR SHOW A WELL DEFINED JET STREAM FM
THE NPAC AND NNE OVR THE PNHDL BTWN PASI AND PAYA. THE ASSOCD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SLOWLY WEAKENING AS IT MOVES ONSHORE. BARRIER
FLOW IS EXTENDING THE GALE FORCE WINDS AS FAR WEST AS CAPE
SUCKLING. FEW CHANGES ARE BEING MADE TO THE FORECASTS, WITH THE
MOST NOTEWORTHY BEING A 5 KT DECREASE IN THE WINDS FOR MARINE
ZONE 53 THAT HAS LOWERED THE GALE WARNING TO A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY.

 A SHARP-AMPLITUDE TROUGH ALOFT EXTENDING S FM OVER PAWD  IS
RAPIDLY LOSING THAT AMPLITUDE. ONE IMPORTANT CONSEQUENCE IS THE
WEAKENING OF THE 997 MB LOW ABOUT 450 NM S OF PAC. THE LOW HAS AN
ASSOC FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS  STRONG ENOUGH TO GEN THE
FOLLOWING: FIRST, ARE THE  WINDS INCLUDING THE GALE FORCE WINDS
FOR THE OUTSIDE WATERS  FROM CAPE FAIR WEATHER TO CAPE SUCKLING.
SECOND, THE STRONG  SW FLOW OF WHAT WAS A SUBTROPICAL AIRMASS IS
BRINGING HEAVY  RAIN ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE AS
WELL AS THE  VICINITY OF PAYA. NOTE THE AREAL FLOOD WARNING FOR
THE SKAGWAY ZONE 18 INCLUDING THE TAIYA RIVER.

 LOOPS SHOW FAST, LOW-AMPLITUDE WVS MOVG NNE ALONG THE FNTL
BNDRY AND OVER THE PNHDL BTWN PASI AND PAYA AT THIS TIME.  THE
STRONGEST JETSTREAKS IDENTIFIED OVERNIGHT WAS AT 05Z WITH
150 KNOTS LOCATED 700 NM UPSTREAM FM PASI FOR THE 275H-2227H
FIELD. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS HAD SLOW WEAKENING WHILE  MOVING
EAST ACRS THE ERN GLFALSK. THE 00Z GFS SEEMS SLIGHTLY  SLOW ON
FNT TRACK E, BUT NAM IS SGFNTLY SLOR. FOR THIS REASON THE GFS HAS
BEEN USED AS THE PRIMARY GUIDANCE. ALSO THE GOES  WV SHOWS THE
SHORT WVS MOVG ALNG FNTL BNDRY. THESE SHORT WVS  DO NOT SHOW UP
ENOUGH ON THE ON NAM VORT FIELDS. THE GFS DOES  SHOW SUCH WVS,
ALBEIT THE TIMING IS HARD TO CORRESPOND WITH  THE SIM.

 &&

 .LONG TERM...THE REMAINS OF FORMER TROPICAL SYSTEM VAMCO WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE PANHANDLE FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE
WEAKENING LOW CENTER WILL BE MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EASTERN
GULF FOR THE LATE WEEKEND. RAIN WILL BE TAPERING OFF TO SHOWERS
OVER THE PANHANDLE FOR MONDAY AS PARALLEL TO SLIGHT OFF SHORE
FLOW SETS UP AS THE LOW MOVES SOUTH.

 BY MIDWEEK, FORECAST CONFIDENCE BEGINS TO DROP AS THE GFS KEEPS
AN UPPER LOW IN THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC FOR A DAY OR TWO LONGER.
FOLLOWING THIS, THE EC DEVELOPS A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF
WITH MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW OVER NORTHERN ALASKA WHILE THE GFS DIGS A
TROUGH OVER THE BERING MIDWEEK AND MOVES IT EAST INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL ALASKA AND THE WESTERN GULF FOR LATE NEXT WEEK. IN EITHER
CASE, MOST OF THE PANHANDLE WILL SEE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ON
TUESDAY AS A WEAK HIGH BUILDS IN THE EASTERN GULF. THIS IS
FOLLOWED BY A RETURN OF A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA BY LATE WEEK
AS ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS.

 GENERALLY, THE CHANGES DONE TO THE LONG RANGE FORECAST WERE
SMALL, WITH THE BIGGEST CHANGE BEING A REDUCTION OF THE WINDS IN
THE OFFSHORE FOR DAYS 5 AND 6. STUCK WITH THE EC AND SOME GFS IN
THE MID RANGE AND HPC IN THE LONG RANGE. OTHERWISE, LEFT MOST OF
THE FORECAST AS IS.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...AREAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 3 PM AKDT SUNDAY FOR AKZ018.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ051-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011>013-021-022-031>036-041>043.

&&

JBT/EAL