Wind Advisory 49, NWS Juneau, AK

000 
WWAK77 PAJK 261042
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
242 AM AKDT WED AUG 26 2009


AKZ018-261145-
/X.CAN.PAJK.WI.Y.0049.000000T0000Z-090826T1300Z/
TAIYA INLET AND KLONDIKE HIGHWAY-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...SKAGWAY
242 AM AKDT WED AUG 26 2009

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JUNEAU HAS CANCELLED THE WIND
ADVISORY. 

PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS AS RIDGE OVER THE PANHANDLE TRACKS EAST.
BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 MPH WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
THROUGH THE MORNING.

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL STATEMENT ON THIS EVENT.

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
131 PM AKDT TUE AUG 25 2009

.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE THIS MORNING SHOWS THE VERTICALLY
STACKED LOW IN THE GULF CONTINUING TO WEAKEN AND FILL WITH
SEVERAL FRONTAL BANDS ADVECTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE PANHANDLE.
WITH THE COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT MOVING OVER THE PANHANDLE THE
RAINFALL ACTIVITY HAS BECOME CONVECTIVE WITH SUNNY BREAKS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE ALSO INCREASED THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL
PANHANDLE THIS MORNING AS THE SOUTHERLY SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES DRAMATICALLY INTO THE EVENING WITH A SURFACE RIDGE
STRENGTHENING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. WILL SEE LOCALLY
BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE PANHANDLE
WITH SOUTHERLY SMCR WITHIN THE INNER CHANNELS. KEPT CLOSE TO
INHERITED GRIDS THROUGH SHORT TERM BLENDING TOWARD THE 12Z NAM IN
THE 1ST TWO PERIODS. THE 12Z NAM INITIALIZED THE VERTICALLY
STACKED LOW IN THE GULF THE BEST THIS MORNING AND HAD THE BEST
REPRESENTATION OF THE BUILDING SURFACE RIDGE AND RESULTANT
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE PANHANDLE TOMORROW. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE REMAINS ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

 FOR TONIGHT WILL SEE SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUE ACROSS THE ENTIRE
PANHANDLE WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL ACROSS THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE
AND ALONG THE EASTERN INNER CHANNELS WHERE THE 850 MB WINDS WILL
TURN TO SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY. THE BIGGEST CONCERN THROUGH TONIGHT
WILL BE THE SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PANHANDLE. WILL KEEP BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE INNER CHANNELS TONIGHT WITH THE RAPIDLY BUILDING SURFACE
RIDGE ADVECTING OVER THE PANHANDLE. COULD SEE HIGHER GUSTS
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN LYNN CANAL AND TAIYA INLET WHERE THE
WIND ORIENTATION AND SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BECOMES MORE
FAVORABLE FOR GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS BY THE LATE EVENING.

 FOR TOMORROW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE PANHANDLE FROM
SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST AS A MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE
EASTERN GULF WITH THE RIDGE AXIS OFFSHORE. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW
CLEARING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLE THROUGH THE
DAY AS OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS THROUGH 850 MB. HIGH TEMPERATURES
TOMORROW WILL REACH INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WHERE THE GREATEST AMOUNT OF CLEARING WILL
OCCUR. WINDS WILL REMAIN LOCALLY BREEZY IN THE MORNING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLE BEFORE DIMINISHING IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS WITH THE
SURFACE RIDGE IN PLACE. WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONGEST OFFSHORE
TOMORROW AND NEAR PAYA AS A WEAK BARRIER FLOW DEVELOPS WITH GUSTS
TO 25 KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...UPPER TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE GULF THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...THEN PROBABLY MOVE SLOWLY EWD THEN SEWD ACROSS THE AREA
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS IDEA IS BEST SUPPORTED BY THE EC AND GFS
ENSEMBLES...WITH GFS OPERATIONAL RUN LOOKING A BIT TOO FAST TO
MOVE OUT THE TROF. WILL HAVE A FEW SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THE THU-SUN TIME FRAME...AND REMARKABLY THE MODELS ARE
FAIRLY CLOSE ON THEM. ENDED UP MAKING LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PRES
FIELD BEYOND THU DUE TO THIS AGREEMENT...BUT DID MAKE SOME OTHER
CHANGES BASED MAINLY ON LOCAL EFFECTS.

FOR WED NIGHT INTO FRI...PRECIP BAND ASSOCIATED WITH AN INVERTED
TROF WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE MAIN PANHANDLE AREA BY EARLY
EVENING...WITH THE CLEARING TREND FROM THE SHORT TERM REACHING THE
N-CENTRAL AREA BY EARLY EVENING. IT WILL NOT BE LONG LIVED HOWEVER
AS AN OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE AREA...AND BRING IN
MORE CLOUDS FROM THE S LATER WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING. PRECIP
FROM THIS FRONT SHOULD GET TO THE SRN AND CENTRAL COASTAL AREA
TOWARD DAYBREAK THU...THEN PUSH SLOWLY INLAND DURING THU. THE FAR
ERN INNER CHANNELS MAY NOT GET INTO THE PRECIP UNTIL LATE THU NIGHT
DUE TO FAIRLY STRONG E-SE FLOW IN THE LOW-MID LEVELS...AND ENDED
UP LOWERING POPS FOR THAT AREA THU INTO EARLY THU NIGHT. WINDS
WILL BE STRONGEST OVER THE GULF WITH 35-45 KT LIKELY AND 25-35 KT ELY
OUTFLOW WINDS IN THE MORE E-W INNER CHANNELS THU INTO THU NIGHT.
THE PRES GRADIENT ORIENTATION LOOKS TOO ELY FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
ADVY LEVEL WINDS ALONG THE COAST BUT AREAS SUSCEPTIBLE TO E WINDS
MAY GET THERE. LOOKS LIKE FRONT WILL AMCO. IT WILL
MOVE INTO THE GULF BY EARLY SAT...AND THE ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO OUR AREA DURING LATE FRI NIGHT AND SAT. LATE
FRI NIGHT AND SAT LOOK TO BE WET AREA WIDE...AND WILL SEE WINDS
PICK UP AGAIN TO GALE FORCE OVER MUCH OF THE GULF AND SCA TO MIN
GALE LEVELS INSIDE ESPECIALLY FOR THE MORE E-W INNER CHANNELS. MAY
END UP NEEDING WIND ADVYS WITH THIS ONE AS THE PRES GRADIENT
ORIENTATION WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR SE WINDS ALONG THE COAST.
THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY E THROUGH THE AREA LATER SAT. BEHIND
THE FRONT...FLOW WILL TURN MORE ONSHORE SO IT WILL LIKELY REMAIN
WET OVER MUCH OF THE AREA SAT NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST SUN NIGHT.

FURTHER OUT...FORECAST BECOMES MORE TRICKY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WITH
HOW FAST UPPER TROF MOVES OUT. DECIDED TO KEEP THE FORECAST AS IS
FOR MON ONWARD AND ALLOW LATER SHIFTS GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THIS.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ036.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-013-021-022-031>035-041>043-051-
     052.

PSS/RWT