Wind Advisory 48, NWS Juneau, AK

000 
WWAK77 PAJK 241244
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
444 AM AKDT MON AUG 24 2009

AKZ027-250015-
/X.CON.PAJK.WI.Y.0048.090824T1400Z-090825T1400Z/
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION COASTAL AREA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CRAIG...KLAWOCK
444 AM AKDT MON AUG 24 2009

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM AKDT TUESDAY...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM AKDT TUESDAY. 

A STRONG LOW IN THE SE GULF AND ASSOCIATED FRONT CONTINUE TO
TRACK NORTH ALONG THE AK PANHANDLE. WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH
THE MORNING WITH SUSTAINED WINDS 25 TO 35 MPH AND GUSTS TO AROUND
45 MPH. THESE STRONGER WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO LATE MONDAY
NIGHT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 4 PM AKDT MONDAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

AKZ023-028-250015-
/X.CON.PAJK.WI.Y.0048.090824T1700Z-090825T1400Z/
CAPE DECISION TO SALISBURY SOUND COASTAL AREA-
SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SITKA...PORT ALEXANDER...KETCHIKAN...
METLAKATLA
444 AM AKDT MON AUG 24 2009

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM
AKDT TUESDAY...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM
AKDT TUESDAY. 

A STRONG LOW IN THE SE GULF AND ASSOCIATED FRONT CONTINUE TO
TRACK NORTH ALONG THE AK PANHANDLE. WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH
THE MORNING WITH SUSTAINED WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH AND GUSTS TO AROUND
40 MPH. THESE STRONGER WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO LATE MONDAY
NIGHT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 4 PM AKDT MONDAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

000 
WWAK77 PAJK 242331
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
331 PM AKDT MON AUG 24 2009

AKZ023-027-028-250800-
/X.CON.PAJK.WI.Y.0048.000000T0000Z-090825T1400Z/
CAPE DECISION TO SALISBURY SOUND COASTAL AREA-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION COASTAL AREA-
SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SITKA...PORT ALEXANDER...CRAIG...
KLAWOCK...KETCHIKAN...METLAKATLA
331 PM AKDT MON AUG 24 2009

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM AKDT TUESDAY...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM AKDT TUESDAY. 

A STRONG LOW IN THE SE GULF AND ASSOCIATED FRONT CONTINUE TO
TRACK NORTH ALONG THE AK PANHANDLE. GUSTS TO 45 MPH WILL CONTINUE
TO OCCUR ALONG THE SOUTHERN OUTER COAST AND IN EXPOSED LOCATIONS
ALONG CLARENCE STRAIT. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY MIDNIGHT AKDT TONIGHT OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

000 
WWAK77 PAJK 250606
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1006 PM AKDT MON AUG 24 2009


AKZ023-027-028-250715-
/X.CAN.PAJK.WI.Y.0048.000000T0000Z-090825T1400Z/
CAPE DECISION TO SALISBURY SOUND COASTAL AREA-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION COASTAL AREA-
SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SITKA...PORT ALEXANDER...CRAIG...
KLAWOCK...KETCHIKAN...METLAKATLA
1006 PM AKDT MON AUG 24 2009

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JUNEAU HAS CANCELLED THE WIND
ADVISORY. 



$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
127 PM AKDT SUN AUG 23 2009

.SHORT TERM...ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE PANHANDLE THIS
MORNING WITH EXTENSIVE LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER AND AREAS OF
LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN INNER CHANNELS
WHERE THE DEEPER ONSHORE FLOW AND MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN ARE
FOCUSING THE RAINFALL. A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE OCCURRING
ALONG THE COAST WITH A WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE ADVECTING INTO THE
EASTERN GULF THIS AFTERNOON. THIS MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL ADVECT
THROUGH THE PANHANDLE TONIGHT ALLOWING THE PRECIPITATION TO
DIMINISH AND REMAIN MAINLY NORTH OF FREDERICK SOUND. THE MAIN
FORECAST PROBLEM THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS THE
STRENGTHENING GALE FORCE LOW IN THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC...THAT
WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF TOMORROW AFTERNOON. USED A
COMBINATION OF THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF FOR THE SHORT TERM
PACKAGE AS BOTH OF THESE MODELS INITIALIZED THE GALE FORCE LOW
THE BEST AND HAD A MORE WESTWARD SOLUTION AS THE LOW ADVECTS
ALONG THE OUTER COAST INTO THE LONG TERM. THE 12Z UKMET ALSO HAD
A FAVORABLE SOLUTION HOWEVER ITS 850 MB WINDS WERE A LITTLE TOO
WEAK. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
AS IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE HOW FAR NORTH THE WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE TOMORROW.

 FOR TONIGHT THE SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE WILL WEAKEN
AND MOVE INTO THE YUKON AND THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL TURN AND BECOME
MORE SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH 700 MB ALLOWING PRECIP RATES TO
DIMINISH ALONG THE EASTERN INNER CHANNELS. THE SOUTHERLY SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT AND TURN NORTHERLY AS THE
GALE FORCE LOW ADVECTS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF. THIS WILL
ALLOW THE LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS ALONG LYNN CANAL THIS EVENING
TO DIMINISH. WINDS IN EAST-WEST ORIENTED CHANNELS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WILL INCREASE TO SMCR TONIGHT WITH THE
INCREASING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT THERE. THE FIRST FRONTAL
BAND WILL APPROACH PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND LATE TONIGHT BRINGING
WIND ADVY GUSTS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

 FOR TOMORROW THE 850 MB BARRIER JET WILL STRENGTHEN ALONG THE
COAST MOUNTAINS TO 60 KNOTS AND WITH THIS STRONG OF A LLJ EXPECT
WIND ADVY GUSTS IN AKZ027 AND AKZ028. THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ORIENTATION WILL ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR WIND ADVY GUSTS
ALONG SOUTHERN BARANOF ISLAND INTO THE AFTERNOON. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR THE WINDY CONDITIONS INTO THE AFTERNOON FOR WIND ADVY
GUSTS NORTH OF SUMNER STRAIT. ATTM EXPECT ONLY BREEZY CONDITIONS
NORTH OF FREDERICK SOUND ON MONDAY AS THE GALE FORCE LOW WILL
BEGIN TO WEAKEN BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH OPENS
SLIGHTLY. RAIN WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE PANHANDLE
TOMORROW AS THE FRONTAL BAND FROM THE GALE FORCE LOW ADVECTS
NORTHWARD BUT THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL REMAIN ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AS THE STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL JET FORCING WILL
REMAIN THERE. WILL SEE BREAKS IN PRECIP NEAR PAGY AND PAYA IN THE
MORNING AS THE OFFSHORE FLOW THERE WILL LIMIT PRECIP. THIS
DEVELOPING GALE FORCE LOW BEARS WATCHING THROUGH TOMORROW AS
WINDY CONDITIONS COULD SPREAD NORTH OF FREDERICK SOUND IF THE
SURFACE LOW ADVECTS NORTHWARD MORE QUICKLY THAN CURRENT 12Z MODEL
RUNS INDICATE.

.LONG TERM...LOW SHOULD MOVE N THRU THRU THE ERN GULF MON NIGHT THEN
DRIFT BACK TO THE W OVER THE N-CENTRAL GULF BY LATE
TUE...WEAKENING LATE MON NIGHT AND TUE. LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER LOW
WILL DEVELOP JUST S OF THE GULF WED THEN HEAD N INTO THE GULF BY
THU. YET ANOTHER LOW WILL LIKELY MOVE TO S OF THE GULF FOR FRI
INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT THIS ONE WILL BEAR WATCHING CLOSELY AS IT
WILL CONTAIN WHAT IS LEFT OF TYPHOON VAMCO. FOR THE LONGER
TERM GRIDS...ENDED UP PREFERRING 00Z EC RUN WHICH WAS BLENDED WITH
CURRENT GRIDS FOR MON NIGHT-WED BEFORE USING NEW HPC PRES FIELD
FOR WED NIGHT ONWARD.

AM KEEPING WIND ADVYS GOING FOR ZONES 23..27 AND 28 THRU MON NIGHT
AS PRES GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT WITH APPROACH OF LOW AND SECOND
WRAP OF OCCLUDED FRONT MOVING IN. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT AREAS
FURTHER N COULD SEE ADVY LEVEL WINDS AS WELL...BUT NOT AS
CONFIDENT IN THAT AND IT WOULD BE A LATER 3RD PERIOD EVENT FOR
THOSE AREAS. THERE MAY BE A BREAK IN THE PRECIP ALONG THE NRN
INNER CHANNELS DUE TO INCREASED OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING...BUT AM
KEEPING POPS IN THE LIKELY RANGE FOR MOST NRN AREAS. MAIN
EXCEPTIONS WILL BE PAGY AND PAYA AREAS WHERE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BE
STRONGER. HAD POPS DROP TO CHANCE LEVELS BY LATE NIGHT FOR PAGY
AND WENT WITH CHANCE POPS FOR ALL OF MON NIGHT FOR PAYA.

NEXT SYSTEM WILL HELP TURN FLOW MORE SE THRU A DEEP LAYER BY LATE
WED AND SLOW NE MOVEMENT OF A FRONTAL ZONE INTO THE AREA. HAVE
LOWERED POPS ESPECIALLY WED NIGHT INTO THU TO CHANCE LEVELS FOR
THIS REASON. FRONT SHOULD SLOWLY PUSH INTO THE AREA THU NIGHT AND
POPS JUMP BACK TO LIKELY MOST AREAS THEN.

FOR FRI ONWARD...FLOW BECOMES MORE ONSHORE SO IT IS LIKELY AREA
WILL BE WET. THE BIG CONCERN FOR THIS PERIOD IS WHAT EFFECT THE
REMNANT OF TYPHOON VAMCO WILL HAVE ON SFC DEVELOPMENTS. WILL JUST
HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND HOPEFULLY IT
BECOMES CLEARER ON WHAT WILL HAPPEN TO VAMCO.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM AKDT TUESDAY FOR AKZ027.
         WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM AKDT TUESDAY FOR AKZ023-
     028.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ033-036-041-042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-021-022-031-032-034-035-043.

PSS/RWT