Wind Advisory 46, NWS Juneau, AK

000 
WWAK77 PAJK 072347
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
347 PM AKDT TUE JUL 7 2009

AKZ025-080100-
/X.CAN.PAJK.WI.Y.0046.000000T0000Z-090708T0100Z/
JUNEAU BOROUGH AND NORTHERN ADMIRALTY ISLAND-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...JUNEAU
347 PM AKDT TUE JUL 7 2009

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JUNEAU HAS CANCELLED THE WIND
ADVISORY. 

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL STATEMENT ON THIS EVENT.

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
514 AM AKDT TUE JUL 7 2009

.SHORT TERM...EARLY MORNING SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS A WEAK INVERTED
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE PANHANDLE COAST WITH A LARGE
AREA OF CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA...OUTSKIRTING
MIDDLE TO HIGH CLOUDS WESTWARD TOWARDS HYDER AND KETCHIKAN AREAS.
SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS DIXON ENTRANCE WITH
EXTENSIVE MARINE STRATUS AND AREAS OF FOG INVADING SOUTHERN
COASTAL AREAS. ELSEWHERE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL...PROMISING
ANOTHER DAY OF DRY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. WITH PREVAILING
OFFSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE...
ADIABATIC HEATING WILL CONTINUE. RED FLAG WARNING DUE TO
EXTREMELY LOW HUMIDITY FOR SKAGWAY AREA WILL BE POSTED ONCE AGAIN
TODAY. FLOOD ADVISORY FOR TAIYA RIVER REMAINS IN EFFECT AND
HYDROLOGIC STATEMENT FOR OTHER RIVERS OF CONCERN CONTINUES AS
WELL.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HIGHLY AMPLIFIED OMEGA BLOCK
ACROSS THE GULF AND WEAKENING UPPER LOW OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA
THROUGH TONIGHT. USED THE 06Z RUN NAM12 TO MAINTAIN CONSISTENCY
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE RIDGE TOP WILL START ERODING LATE
TONIGHT OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. THIS WILL BRING MARINE
STRATUS BACK TO THE NORTHERN MOST OUTSIDE WATERS LATE TONIGHT...
WHILE THE INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE MAINTAINING
MARINE STRATUS IN THE AREA. AT THE SAME TIME...THE INVERTED TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE SOUTH SLIGHTLY. AHEAD OF THIS
WEAKENING...PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOST
ZONES TO DECREASE NORTHERLY WINDS. THUS...SMALL CRAFT WIND ACROSS
THE NORTHERN LYNN CANAL WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. DUE TO
THE PROXIMITY OF THE PARENT CONVECTIONS IN BRITISH
COLUMBIA...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS HYDER AND KETCHIKAN AREAS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM...THE RIDGE OUT OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA REMAINS ROUGHLY
IN PLACE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. AND A AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
INTERIOR AREAS WILL CONTINUE AS WELL DUE TO THERMAL HEATING THERE.
BY LATE WEDNESDAY THE TROUGH THAT WAS ALONG THE OUTER COAST HAS
MOVED EAST BACK INTO THE INTERIOR OF BRITISH COLUMBIA ALLOWING THE
RIDGE AXIS OFF SHORE TO MOVE EASTWARD SOME. AS A RESULT THE EXPECT
THE SEA STRATUS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WILL AGAIN MOVE TO THE
COASTAL AREAS THROUGH THURSDAY. SHOULD ALSO SEE A LITTLE COOLER
WEATHER ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AS WELL...STILL EXPECTING
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S THOUGH.

DRY WEATHER AND LOW HUMIDITY READING SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS TO ABOUT THURSDAY SO WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
THE FIRE THREAT. ALSO STILL SHOULD BE WARM EN OUGHT TO HAVE TO
WATCH THE RIVERS AS WELL. CONTINUED SNOW MELT OFF THE MOUNTAINS
SHOULD KEEP RIVERS RUNNING HIGHER THAN USUAL.

MODEL RUNS WERE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT...LIKE IDEA OF HOLDING THE
RIDGE OVER THE GULF THAT THE MODELS WERE HOLDING TO AND PREVIOUS
DAY SHIFT LEANED TOWARDS IN MAKING THE LATER TIME FRAME GRIDS FOR
NEXT WEEKEND. MADE MINIMAL ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY
ONWARD. DID SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS EARLY WITH THE NAM FOR
WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE
AVERAGE.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...AREAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM AKDT THURSDAY FOR AKZ018.
         RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM AKDT THIS
     EVENING FOR AKZ018.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012.

&&

AHN/BEZENEK