Wind Advisory 43, NWS Juneau, AK

000 
WWAK77 PAJK 171249
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
449 AM AKDT SUN MAY 17 2009

AKZ025-171800-
/X.CON.PAJK.WI.Y.0043.000000T0000Z-090517T1800Z/
JUNEAU BOROUGH AND NORTHERN ADMIRALTY ISLAND-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...JUNEAU
449 AM AKDT SUN MAY 17 2009

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM AKDT THIS
MORNING...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM AKDT THIS MORNING. 

STRONG WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH NEAR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND
DOUGLAS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATE SUNDAY MORNING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 1000 AM AKDT SUNDAY OR SOONER
IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

000 
WWAK77 PAJK 171745
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
945 AM AKDT SUN MAY 17 2009


AKZ025-171845-
/X.EXP.PAJK.WI.Y.0043.000000T0000Z-090517T1800Z/
JUNEAU BOROUGH AND NORTHERN ADMIRALTY ISLAND-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...JUNEAU
945 AM AKDT SUN MAY 17 2009

...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 10 AM AKDT THIS MORNING...

THE WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 10 AM AKDT THIS MORNING. 

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL STATEMENT ON THIS EVENT.

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1232 PM AKDT SAT MAY 16 2009

.SHORT TERM...MORNING SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS A WEAK LOW IN THE
SOUTH CENTRAL GULF WITH A WEAKENING FRONT DRIFTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN GULF AND A DEVELOPING MOISTURE FETCH OVER
THE SOUTH EASTERN GULF...JUST EAST OF THE LOW CENTER...MARCHING
TO THE QUEEN CHARLOTTES. A DISSIPATING BAROCLINIC LEAF OVER FAR
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW IS HEADING TOWARDS BRITISH COLUMBIA
COAST. LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WITH
PERSISTING ONSHORE FLOW IN BETWEEN THE DEVELOPING FETCH OF
MOISTURE AND DISSIPATING BAROCLINIC LEAF. AS THE WEAKENING FRONT
OVER FAR NORTHEASTERN GULF CONTINUES DRIFTING NORTH...OFFSHORE
FLOW SLOWLY INCREASES...CLOUDINESS DECREASE AND FREQUENT SUNNY
BREAKS OCCUR OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLE WITH
TEMPERATURES SOARING UP TO THE UPPER 40S TO THE LOWER 50S. ALONG
AND BEHIND THE TRAILING EDGE OF THE FRONT...GUSTY WINDS OCCUR
ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLE COASTAL SECTIONS WITH SMALL
CRAFT WIND REPORTED FROM CAPE SPENCER.

 MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT AND THE NAM AND GFS WILL BE USED TO
BLEND THE INHERITED GRIDS TO KEEP A MAXIMUM CONSISTENCY FOR SHORT
TERM FORECAST PERIODS. THIS WILL MAKE A MINOR CHANGES OVER THE
PREVIOUS PACKAGE WITH A FEW COSMETIC TOUCHES. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA WILL
REMAIN QUASI- STATIONARY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS PERSISTING
TROUGH ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO FEED LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE
FETCH OVER THE SOUTHEAST GULF WITH CATEGORICAL POPS FOR SOUTHERN
FORECAST AREAS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE PHASING OUT FRONT IN THE
FAR NORTHEAST GULF WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE POP FOR CENTRAL
PANHANDLE WITH A BIT HIGHER POPS FOR CENTRAL PANHANDLE COAST.
NORTHERN AREAS WILL STAY DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT EXPERIENCE
INCREASING OFFSHORE WINDS WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS FROM
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING ALONG WITH SMALL CRAFT WINDS FOR
NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS INCLUDING STEPHENS PASSAGE. THE SOUTHERN
MOST INSIDE PASSAGE MAY EXPERIENCE SMALL CRAFT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND
SUNDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE WEAK LOW DISSIPATING BY LATE SUNDAY
EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS MODELS
ARE BECOMING MORE AGREEABLE WITH EACH OTHER FARTHER OUT WITH THE
NEWER RUNS. PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH A UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF
AND A RIDGE OVER WESTERN ALASKA. TROUGH WILL MOVE ON TO THE EAST
AS THE RIDGE SPLITS. THE SOUTHERN PART BECOMES A LOWER AMPLITUDE
RIDGE IN THE SOUTHERN JET AND THE NORTHERN PART BECOMES A CUT OFF
HIGH OVER INTERIOR ALASKA AND THE YUKON BY TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT A UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GULF AND ALSO BECOMES CUT
OFF DRIFTING IN THE CENTRAL GULF THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH A DIRTY RIDGE OVER THE PANHANDLE.

AT THE SURFACE, OFFSHORE FLOW IN THE NORTH AND ONSHORE FLOW IN THE
SOUTH WILL KEEP THE NORTH MOSTLY DRY AND KEEP A CHANCE OF RAIN FOR
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE MONDAY. MOST OF THE PANHANDLE
SHOULD BE DRY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TUESDAY EXCEPT FOR THE VERY
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. ONSHORE FLOW RESUMES TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING
CLOUDS AND THE RETURN OF A CHANCE OF RAIN FOR MOST OF THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK DRIFTING LOW SETTLES INTO THE WESTERN GULF.
THE PRESENCE OF THIS LOW AND THE DIRTY RIDGE ALOFT WILL KEEP AT
LEAST A CHANCE OF PRECIP FOR THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. NO SIGNIFICANT SEAS OR WINDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THURSDAY WHERE THEY START TO
HAVE SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE HANDLING OF THE CUT OFF HIGH IN THE
INTERIOR. GFS TAKES THIS FEATURE AND MERGES IT BACK INTO THE
RIDGE AXIS JUST TO OUR EAST WHILE THE EC SUGGESTS A MERGE WITH A
RIDGE OVER THE BERING AT THE END OF THE WEEK. THOUGHT GFS WAS
THE SLIGHTLY BETTER CHOICE DUE TO CONSISTENCY OF THE MORE RECENT
RUNS. FORECAST WAS UPDATED WITH A BLEND OF THE GFS/NAM IN THE
MEDIUM RANGE AND THEN SWITCHED TO A GFS/EC BLEND PAST 00Z
WEDNESDAY. USED A LITTLE MORE OF THE GFS IN THE LONGER RANGE THEN
THE OTHER MODELS.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011>013-022-031-036-041-043-051.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ042.

&&

AHN/EAL