Wind Advisory 36, NWS Juneau, AK

000 
WWAK77 PAJK 172158 CCA
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
459 AM AKDT TUE MAR 17 2009

AKZ025-180000-
/X.UPG.PAJK.HW.A.0003.090318T1100Z-090319T0000Z/
/X.COR.PAJK.WI.Y.0036.090318T1100Z-090318T2000Z/
JUNEAU BOROUGH AND NORTHERN ADMIRALTY ISLAND-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...JUNEAU
459 AM AKDT TUE MAR 17 2009

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 12 PM AKDT WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JUNEAU HAS ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 12 PM AKDT WEDNESDAY
FOR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND SOUTH DOUGLAS. 

THE HIGH WIND WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE EASTERN GULF LATE THIS
EVENING WILL PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS NEAR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND
SOUTH DOUGLAS LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH.

&&

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 4 PM AKDT THIS AFTERNOON OR
SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

$$

AKZ018-180000-
/X.NEW.PAJK.WI.Y.0036.000000T0000Z-090318T2100Z/
TAIYA INLET AND KLONDIKE HIGHWAY-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...SKAGWAY
1020 AM AKDT TUE MAR 17 2009

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON AKDT WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JUNEAU HAS ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON AKDT WEDNESDAY.

NORTHEAST WINDS WILL GUST TO 45 MPH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH.

&&

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 4 PM AKDT THIS AFTERNOON OR
SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.
 
$$

000 
WWAK77 PAJK 172352
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
352 PM AKDT TUE MAR 17 2009

AKZ018-180800-
/X.EXT.PAJK.WI.Y.0036.000000T0000Z-090318T2000Z/
TAIYA INLET AND KLONDIKE HIGHWAY-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...SKAGWAY
352 PM AKDT TUE MAR 17 2009

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON AKDT WEDNESDAY...

THE WIND ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON AKDT WEDNESDAY. 

NORTHEAST WINDS WILL GUST TO 45 MPH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY MIDNIGHT AKDT TONIGHT OR SOONER
IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&


$$

AKZ025-180800-
/X.CON.PAJK.WI.Y.0036.090318T1100Z-090318T2000Z/
JUNEAU BOROUGH AND NORTHERN ADMIRALTY ISLAND-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...JUNEAU
352 PM AKDT TUE MAR 17 2009

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO NOON AKDT
WEDNESDAY...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO NOON AKDT
WEDNESDAY. 

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE EASTERN GULF LATE THIS
EVENING WILL PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS NEAR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND
SOUTH DOUGLAS LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY MIDNIGHT AKDT TONIGHT OR SOONER
IF CONDITIONS WARRANT. 

&&


$$

CVP

000 
WWAK77 PAJK 180748
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1148 PM AKDT TUE MAR 17 2009

AKZ018-182000-
/X.CON.PAJK.WI.Y.0036.000000T0000Z-090318T2000Z/
TAIYA INLET AND KLONDIKE HIGHWAY-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...SKAGWAY
1148 PM AKDT TUE MAR 17 2009

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON AKDT WEDNESDAY...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON AKDT WEDNESDAY FOR
THE SKAGWAY AREA.

STRONG NORTHEAST WIND WILL CONTINUE WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY NOON AKDT WEDNESDAY OR SOONER
IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

AKZ025-182000-
/X.CON.PAJK.WI.Y.0036.090318T1100Z-090318T2000Z/
JUNEAU BOROUGH AND NORTHERN ADMIRALTY ISLAND-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...JUNEAU
1148 PM AKDT TUE MAR 17 2009

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO NOON AKDT
WEDNESDAY FOR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND SOUTH DOUGLAS...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO NOON AKDT
WEDNESDAY FOR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND SOUTH DOUGLAS. 

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE EASTERN GULF WILL CONTINUE TO
GENERATE STRONG GUSTY WINDS NEAR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND SOUTH
DOUGLAS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY NOON AKDT WEDNESDAY OR SOONER
IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

000 
WWAK77 PAJK 181955
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1155 AM AKDT WED MAR 18 2009

AKZ018-025-182100-
/X.EXP.PAJK.WI.Y.0036.000000T0000Z-090318T2000Z/
TAIYA INLET AND KLONDIKE HIGHWAY-
JUNEAU BOROUGH AND NORTHERN ADMIRALTY ISLAND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SKAGWAY...JUNEAU
1155 AM AKDT WED MAR 18 2009

...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT NOON AKDT TODAY...

THE WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT NOON AKDT TODAY. 

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL STATEMENT ON THIS EVENT.

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1217 PM AKDT MON MAR 16 2009

.SHORT TERM...VISIBLE SATELLITE THIS MORNING REVEALS SEVERAL
SURFACE LOWS ROTATING CYCLONICALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF AS THE LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE GULF. ONE OF THESE SURFACE LOWS AND ASSOCIATED
WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH IS BRINGING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THIS MORNING WITH SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SNOW
SHOWERS NORTH OF FREDERICK SOUND. THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AT MID
LEVELS CONTINUES TO ENTRAIN DRY AIR INTO THE SHOWERS AND WITH
NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW LITTLE PRECIPITATION IS FALLING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE. ELSEWHERE LOCALLY WINDY
CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE NEAR OUTFLOW
AREAS AND GAPS WITH WIND ADVY GUSTS NEAR PAYA AND PAGY AND GALES
IN ASSOCIATED MARINE WATERS. THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM FOR THE
SHORT TERM REMAINS THE LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS AND THE TIMING OF
THE WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL PANHANDLE THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. USED THE 12Z NAM FOR
THE SHORT TERM PACKAGE TODAY AS IT HAD THE BEST HANDLE ON THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THE NAM ALSO DEPICTED THE MANY
SURFACE LOWS ACROSS THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN GULF QUITE WELL.
BLENDED IN SOME OF THE 12Z GFS NEAR HAND OFF AS THE GFS TIMING
AND INITIALIZATION OF THE MID LEVEL VORTICITY FIELD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GULF WAS PREFERRED WITH ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE
ROTATING ACROSS THE PANHANDLE TOMORROW. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

 FOR TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SNOW SHOWERS ROTATE FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH ACROSS THE PANHANDLE WITH THE BEST PRECIP CHANCES
REMAINING ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND OUTER COAST AND IN UPSLOPE
REGIONS ALONG WESTERN CHATHAM STRAIT. EXPECT THE MAJORITY OF THE
PRECIP TO BE SNOW AS DRY AIR WILL KEEP THE WET BULB TEMPERATURES
BELOW ZERO IN THE CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT. WITH THE TEMPERATURES
CLOSE TO OR ABOVE FREEZING EXPECT SNOW AMOUNTS TO BE LIGHT.
LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLE, ESPECIALLY NEAR YAKUTAT,
SKAGWAY, AND DOWNTOWN JUNEAU, AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN STRONG. ALSO GALES AND FREEZING SPRAY WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS TONIGHT. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
SHOWER ACTIVITY TONIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW SOUTH OF THE
CHARLOTTES INTERACTS WITH LAND BECAUSE CAPE VALUES ON THE 12Z
ANNETTE SOUNDING WERE NEAR 300 J/KG AND COULD POSSIBLY SEE SOME
SMALL HAIL AND LIGHTNING AS THE STRONGER SHOWERS INTERACT WITH THE
TERRAIN.

 FOR TOMORROW LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE. KEPT WIND ADVY
TIMING THE SAME AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ROTATE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE AND THIS WILL RELAX THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ENOUGH TO DIMINISH THE WIND ADVY GUSTS BY EARLY EVENING.
PRECIP CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN HIGHEST ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE ROTATES ONSHORE. EXPECT SNOW
AMOUNTS TO CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT AS THE MID LEVEL DYNAMICS ARE NOT
ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE SURFACE AND MID LEVEL DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT.
PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL AGAIN QUICKLY DIMINISH NORTH OF FREDERICK
SOUND AS DRY SOUTHEASTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH
OFFSHORE FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE.

&&

.LONG TERM... GOVERNING UPR LEVEL LONG WAVE PATTERN WILL BE SLOW
TO CHANGE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. COLD AIR TROUGHS EXTEND SOUTH FROM THE
POLE OVER THE ATLANTIC... AK PANHANDLE AND WEST CST NO AMERICA...
AND SIBERIA/NE ASIA. WARM UPR RIDGES COVER CENTRAL US AND PACIFIC
ALG DATELINE AND BERING. THE GFS 5-WAVE PROG DEAMPLIFIES THE
PATTERN SOMEWHAT OVER TIME BUT THE LOCATIONS OF TROUGHS AND RIDGES
STAY NEARLY CONSTANT.

FOR SE AK THIS WOULD INDICATE A PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND
THE PERIMETER OF THE GULF WITH FLOW OVER THE PANHANDLE BEING FROM
THE SE-NE QUADRANT. FCST POSITIONS OF INDIV SFC LOW CENTERS
CIRCLING AROUND THE GULF HAVE WOBBLED AROUND A BIT PAST FEW MODEL
RUNS AND ARE TRENDING FARTHER S. HPC FCST MAPS FOR SE AK ALSO GOING
THIS ROUTE. LOW POSITIONS WILL BE IMPORTANT FOR PRECIP LOCATION
AND TYPE. RAIN/SNOW BANDS WILL LIKELY FORM E AND S OF THE LOW
CENTERS AND DRIER OFFSHORE FLOW WILL SET UP N OF THE LOW CENTERS.
INITIAL THOUGHTS ARE TO KEEP THE ZONES NORTH OF JUNEAU TO CROSS
SOUND LINE DRY WHILE ZONES SOUTH OF THAT LINE WILL BE OPEN TO
WETTER WEATHER.

TWO NOTABLE ITEMS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE TO DEAL WITH. MISTY FJORDS
AND KETCHIKAN ZONES ARE BEING HIGHLIGHTED IN STATISTICAL GFS
GUIDANCE FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR GREATER THAN 6 INCHES SNOW ON
WED...WHICH MIGHT ALSO TURN OUT TO BE A SLUSHY RAIN/SNOW MIX. THE
CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE PATTERN DOES INDICATE POTENTIAL HVY PCPN
IN PLACES...ESP FARTHER S. AND THERE IS SOME WARM AIR LIFTING N
AHEAD OF THE SFC LOWS SO WILL BOOST SNOW AMTS THERE IN AFTN PKG
BUT STAY BLO WARNING CRITERIA. SECOND ISSUE IS THE HIGH WIND WATCH FOR
JNU ZONE TUES NIGHT/WED MORNING. LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE SHOWING
LESS FAVORABLE CONDS FOR A TAKU EVENT AND LEANING MORE TOWARD
STRONG OUTFLOW EVENT. GIVEN THE SOLUTION FLIP IN ONLY ONE MODEL
RUN WILL PROBABLY LEAVE WATCH UP FOR NOW BUT THINKING ADV LEVEL
WINDS MORE LIKELY EARLY WED MORNING HRS RATHER THAN WARNING LEVEL
WINDS.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR AKZ025.
         WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 12 PM AKDT TUESDAY FOR AKZ018.
         WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AKDT TUESDAY FOR AKZ017.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ011>013-021-022-043-051-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ031>036-041-042.

&&

PSS/TA