Wind Advisory 20, NWS Juneau, AK

000 
WWAK77 PAJK 011342 CCA
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
441 AM AKST SUN FEB 1 2009

AKZ027-028-012100-
/X.COR.PAJK.WI.Y.0020.090201T1341Z-090201T2100Z/
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION COASTAL AREA-
SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CRAIG...KLAWOCK...KETCHIKAN...
METLAKATLA
441 AM AKST SUN FEB 1 2009

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON AKST TODAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JUNEAU HAS ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON AKST TODAY. 

FRONTAL BAND MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WILL PRODUCE
WINDY CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA UNTIL NOON TODAY. WINDS OF 20 TO
30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL DIMINISH IN THE AFTERNOON.

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY NOON AKST TODAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

$$

000 
WWAK77 PAJK 011751
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
851 AM AKST SUN FEB 1 2009

AKZ027-028-011900-
/X.CAN.PAJK.WI.Y.0020.000000T0000Z-090201T2100Z/
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION COASTAL AREA-
SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CRAIG...KLAWOCK...KETCHIKAN...
METLAKATLA
851 AM AKST SUN FEB 1 2009

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JUNEAU HAS CANCELLED THE WIND
ADVISORY. 

WINDS ACROSS THE AREA HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THIS
MORNING...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY.

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL STATEMENT ON THIS EVENT.

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
134 PM AKST SAT JAN 31 2009

.SHORT TERM...A LOW NEAR PAMD WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT. A COMPLEX
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE ERN GULF TONIGHT...THEN ACROSS
SE AK SUN. SFC LOW WILL MOVE NE INTO THE NE GULF SUN...WHILE A LOW
PRESSURE WAVE FORMS OVER THE SE GULF TONIGHT AND MOVES ENE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE SUN.

TRICKY FORECAST FOR TONIGHT ACROSS THE N-CENTRAL AND NRN
AREA...MAINLY DUE TO PTYPE ISSUES. THE KEY PLAYER IN THIS WILL BE
HOW STRONG THAT LOW PRESSURE WAVE WILL BE THAT MOVES INTO THE
CENTRAL AREA SUN MORNING. THIS FEATURE WILL CUT OFF THE MARITIME
INFLOW TO AREAS N OF THE LOW TRACK...AND THIS WOULD MORE THAN
LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO KEEP PTYPE AS MAINLY SNOW OVER THE NRN AREAS
THROUGH EARLY SUN MORNING AT LEAST AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS FROM SE
TO E. THE NAM/UKMET/EC ALL SHOWED THIS FEATURE MORE PROMINENTLY
THAN THE GFS...WHICH CARRIED IT AS MORE OF AN OPEN TROF. WENT WITH
THE MODEL CONSENSUS ON THIS WITH THE STRONGER WAVE...SO DECIDED TO
KEEP THE WSW FOR PAJN/PAGS/PAHN AREAS GOING...AND ADDED PAOH AND
PAEL TO THE GROUP. ALL BUT THE PAHN WSW WILL BE FROM 03Z-15Z
TONIGHT...WHILE PAHN LASTS UNTIL 21Z SUN. WILL GO WITH MINIMAL
ACCUMS FOR THE WARNINGS...WITH 4 TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW FOR TONIGHT
AND ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES FOR SUN MORNING FOR PAHN.

ELSEWHERE...PRECIP SHOULD BEGIN AS SNOW OVER THE SRN INNER
CHANNELS BUT CHANGE TO RAIN THIS EVENING...EXCEPT THE HYDER AREA
WILL PROBABLY REMAIN ALL SNOW UNTIL EARLY SUN MORNING. DO NOT
THINK ANY OF THE SRN AREAS WILL REACH ADVY LEVEL SNOWFALL BEFORE
CHANGING OVER TO RAIN. THE PAYA AREA WILL BEGIN AS SNOW TONIGHT
THEN MIX WITH RAIN BY LATE SUN MORNING...THEN GO TO ALL RAIN
BY SUN AFTERNOON. LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH SNOW WILL FALL THERE TO
WARRANT A WINTER WEATHER ADVY...AND WILL ISSUE ONE FOR THEM FROM
06Z TONIGHT TO 21Z SUNDAY.

OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL PICK UP TO SCA LEVELS OVER THE OUTER WATERS
TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE MAIN LOW AND FRONTAL SYSTEM...AND REMAIN UP
AS LOW WILL HANG AROUND THE NRN GULF SUN ESPECIALLY OVER THE NW
HALF OF THE OUTER WATERS. WILL SEE SCA LEVEL WINDS DEVELOP OVER
THE SRN INNER CHANNELS THIS EVENING...WITH GALES LIKELY FOR
CLARENCE STRAIT LATE TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD DROP BACK TO LESS THAN
SCA LEVELS OVER THE INNER CHANNELS LATER SUN. WILL KEEP THE WIND
ADVY GOING THROUGH 03Z THIS EVENING FOR PAGY...WHEN MID-LEVEL SW
FLOW SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOWLY BACK AROUND TO A MORE S FLOW.

.LONG TERM...MODEL RUNS SEEM TO BE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH EACH
OTHER... WITH A FEW MINOR EXCEPTIONS IN THE GFS RUN WHICH LED TO
ME NOT INCLUDING IT IN THE MAJORITY OF THE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
FORECAST PACKAGE. BIGGEST DIFFERENCE WAS THE SUNDAY NIGHT TO EARLY
MONDAY TIME FRAME. USED PREDOMINATELY THE ECMWF FOR ANY
ADJUSTMENTS BUT IT SEEMS THAT I DID NOT MAKE MUCH DIFFERENCE IN SOME
OF THE CHANGES.

COLD POOL ROTATES OVER THE NORTHERN GULF SUNDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE WITH SHOWERS SHIFTING TO SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE. A DEVELOPING RUNNER ON THE
TRAILING FRONT SHOULD BRING ANOTHER BURST OF HEAVIER RAIN AND WIND
INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS FOR MONDAY NIGHT. HARDEST HIT AREA
LOOKS TO BE MISTY FJORDS AND IF HYDER HOLDS ON TO COLD AIR COULD
BE SIGNIFICANT SNOW FALL MONDAY NIGHT.

NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH THE MID WEEK TIME
FRAME AS THE PARENT LOW STAYS OVER THE BERING SEA... LOW DOES
DEVELOP ON THE FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF FOR WEDNESDAY. WILL
HAVE TO WATCH AS THE NORTHEAST GULF COULD POSSIBLE END UP WITH A
SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT FOR WEDNESDAY.

A RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC HAS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL FLOW
RUNNING SYSTEMS QUICKLY EASTWARD. IN THE LONG RANGE IT SEEMS THAT
THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT A VERY WET SYSTEM FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY FOR THE PANHANDLE REGION WHERE THE TRAILING COLD
FRONT HANGS UP OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. IF IT HOLDS TRUE WILL
HAVE TO WATCH FOR FLOODING ISSUES IN THE SOUTH AND CENTRAL AND
POTENTIALLY SOME HEAVY SNOW NORTHERN TO NORTH CENTRAL... WITH AT
LEAST GALE FORCE MARINE WINDS FOR THE COAST. QPF FORECASTS ARE 2
TO 4 INCHES LIQUID FOR A 24 HOUR PERIOD.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM AKST
 	    SUNDAY FOR AKZ020>022-025.
         WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 12 PM AKST
            SUNDAY FOR AKZ019.
         WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 12
            PM AKST SUNDAY FOR AKZ017.
         WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AKST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AKZ018.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ036.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-013-021-022-031-033>035-
            041>043-051-052.

&&

RWT/BEZENEK