Wind Advisory 17, NWS Juneau, AK

000 
WWAK77 PAJK 290013
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
313 PM AKST WED JAN 28 2009

AKZ027-290900-
/X.NEW.PAJK.WI.Y.0018.090129T0300Z-090129T0900Z/
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION COASTAL AREA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CRAIG...KLAWOCK
313 PM AKST WED JAN 28 2009

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT
AKST TONIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JUNEAU HAS ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT
AKST TONIGHT. 

A WEATHER FRONT MOVING OVER THE PANHANDLE WILL GENERATE GUSTY
SOUTHEAST WINDS TO AROUND 40 MPH.

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 12 AM AKST TONIGHT OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

$$

AKZ018-290900-
/X.EXT.PAJK.WI.Y.0017.000000T0000Z-090129T0900Z/
TAIYA INLET AND KLONDIKE HIGHWAY-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...SKAGWAY
313 PM AKST WED JAN 28 2009

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT...

THE WIND ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT. 

WINDY CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE NEAR TAIYA INLET.

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 12 AM AKST TONIGHT OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

$$

000 
WWAK77 PAJK 290603
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
903 PM AKST WED JAN 28 2009

AKZ018-291400-
/X.CAN.PAJK.WI.Y.0017.000000T0000Z-090129T0900Z/
/X.NEW.PAJK.HW.A.0001.090130T1200Z-090131T1200Z/
TAIYA INLET AND KLONDIKE HIGHWAY-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...SKAGWAY
903 PM AKST WED JAN 28 2009

...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...
...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JUNEAU HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED. 

A STRONG LOW WILL BUILD INTO THE YUKON LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL INCREASE THE SOUTHERLY WINDS IN SKAGWAY AND NEAR TAIYA INLET
WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH.

A WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
HIGH WINDS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 5 AM AKST THURSDAY MORNING OR
SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

$$

AKZ027-290715-
/X.CAN.PAJK.WI.Y.0018.000000T0000Z-090129T0900Z/
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION COASTAL AREA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CRAIG...KLAWOCK
903 PM AKST WED JAN 28 2009

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JUNEAU HAS CANCELLED THE WIND
ADVISORY. 

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL STATEMENT ON THIS EVENT.

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
606 AM AKST WED JAN 28 2009

.SHORT TERM...LARGE SCALE WARMING STILL TO OCCUR TODAY
AND ONLY SMALL ADJUSTMENTS ARE BEING MADE FOR THE
SHORT RANGE PACKAGE.  THE FRONTAL STRUCTURES, HOWEVER
ARE DIFFICULT TO IDENTIFY FOR THE REASONS GIVEN BELOW
AND THEREFORE WE CAN ONLY CLAIM CONFIDENCE IS FAIR FOR
THE RATE OF WARMING FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT,
AS WELL AS THE WIND EVENT THIS EVENING.

THE NEXT PARAGRAPH GIVES THE DETAILS OF THE INTERPRETATION
USED.  IT IS FOLLOWED BY A PARAGRAPH THAT DETAILS WHY
THE LARGE SCALE CONTEXT RESULTS IN AMBIGUITY THAT IS
WORSE THAN USUAL.

1004 MB LOW 400 NM SE OF KODIAK IS THE INFLECTION FOR A
COLD FRONT EXTENDING TO THE SSW AND FOR A WARM FRONT
EXTENDING TO THE ESE. THIS LOW SHOULD NOT CLOSE TO MORE
THAN ABOUT 4 MB AS IT TRACKS TOWARD A LANDFALL BETWEEN CAPE
SPENCER AND CAPE FAIRWEATHER ABOUT 06Z THIS EVENING. NOTE
THE GALES FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND FOR THIS EVENING
INCLUDE ALL THE COASTAL ZONES EXCEPT 52.

WHY HIGHER AMBIGUITY THAN USUAL FOR THE SHORT RANGE:
LARGE SCALE TROUGH ALOFT EXTENDS S FM THE BERING SEA
ACROSS ADAK, AND IS THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THE
996 MB LOW NEAR COLD BAY.  A DEVELOPING LOW ABOUT 300 NM
SE OF KODIAK IS INDICATED ON SVRL MODELS BUT IS MORE
DIFFICULT THAN USUAL TO IDENTIFY ON THE GOES AND WV IMAGES.
HOWEVER, A COMPLEX DISTURBANCE IN THE CIRRUS CLOUD
SHIELD SEEMS TO HAVE JET STREAK FEATURES THAT FIT MODEL
SOLUTIONS, ALBEIT THE AMBIGUITY IN THIS INTERPRETATION
IS HIGH.  THE GOES IR AND WV BOTH DEPICT A JETSTREAM CORE
IN AN ARC FM 1000 NM S OF DUTCH HARBOR TO 100 NM SE OF
KODIAK TO OVER YAKUTAT.  MOST FRONTAL STRUCTURES ARE
DIFFICULT TO IDENTIFY FROM GOES IMAGES AND THE LACK OF
DISCERNABLE DETAIL IS LIKELY FROM A COMPLEX SERIES OF
WARM FRONTS REACHING TO OR NEAR THE TROPOPAUSE.
WITH ONLY FAIR CONFIDENCE, A SOLUTION IS BEING USED
THAT IS BEING DISTILLED FROM A MODEL CONSENSUS.

AVN FOR TODAY ESPECIALLY FOR THE PRES GRAD AND WINDS IN
LYNN CANAL, BUT OTHER MODEL DIFFERENCES ARE SMALLER.

.LONG TERM... A WAVY MERIDIONAL STORM TRACK AT OUR LATITUDE TAKING
SHAPE IN THE LONG RANGE. PREVAILING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL STEER
SEVERAL SHORT WAVES INTO THE PANHANDLE AND MAINTAIN A WET WEATHER
PERIOD. WEATHER SYSTEMS ARRIVING THU-THUR NIGHT AND AGAIN SUN
HAVE SUB TROPICAL CONNECTIONS AND WILL BRING MILD AIR AND LOCALLY
HEAVY PRECIPITATION. IN BETWEEN THEM A COOLER AIR MASS WILL SPREAD
SUB FREEZING TEMPS OVER THE PANHANDLE AGAIN.

THE STORM TRACK OVER THE PACIFIC IS SOMEWHAT TRAPPED BETWEEN
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS SIBERIA/ALASKA INTERIOR AND
SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE N OF HAWAII EXTENDING W-E ALG 30N. THE
WAVY NATURE OF THE STORM TRACK MEANS ALTERNATING WARM AND COOL
SPELLS FOR OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL MAKE FORECASTING THE TYPE
OF PRECIP...RAIN OR SNOW...VERY DIFFICULT AND ENTIRELY DEPENDENT
OF CORRECTLY POSITIONING FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. TO HELP WITH THIS I
USED A BLEND OF THE 06Z NAM12 DETAILS FOR AS LONG AS I COULD
TOGETHER WITH THE 00Z WED GFS AND THE EXISTING GRIDS TO IDENTIFY
SOME OF THE DETAILS.

THE FIRST SHORT WAVE THU-THUR NIGHT HAS TWO FORECAST ISSUES TO DEAL
WITH. ONE IS A POTENTIAL FOR WIND ADVY ALG THE SOUTH OUTER COAST. THE
PARENT 987 MB LOW APPROACHES AND TIGHTENS THE SE PRESSURE GRADIENT
OVER THE PANHANDLE WHILE A 125KT JET STREAK IS OVERHEAD. SECOND
FCST PROBLEM IS PLACEMENT OF THE ASSOC WARM FRONT. MODEL BLEND ABV
PUTS THE RAIN/SNOW LINE NORTH OF JNU/ICY STRAIT BY THU AFTN BUT
NOT AS FAR NORTH AS HAINES. WITH NEARLY ONE INCH OF LIQUID PRECIP
FCST...THIS RAIN/SNOW LINE WILL DETERMINE WHICH AREAS GET HEAVY
SNOW - UP TO 10 INCHES - AND WHICH AREAS WILL GET HEAVY RAIN.
BELIEVE RAIN WILL MOVE NORTH TO BERNERS BAY BUT NOT QUITE HAINES.
HENCE WE REISSUED WINTER STORM WATCH FOR HAINES ZONE AND WILL USE
THUR MODEL RUNS TO HELP DETERMINE NORTHERN EXTENT OF WARM FRONT
DURING THE DAY THUR.

A COOL SHOWERY WEST FLOW ALOFT WILL LOWER TEMPS/SNOW LEVELS AGAIN
OVER THE WEEKEND. THINKING NOW IS NO SNOW ADVY NEEDED BUT THIS
BEARS WATCHING SINCE A STEADY DIET OF LIGHT SNOW LIKELY ALL
PANHANDLE FRI NIGHT AND SAT AND THIS COULD ADD UP. FREEZING OF THE
JUST SATURATED ROAD AND GROUNDS MAY MAKE FOR SOME SLIPPERY
HAZARDS. ANOTHER FRONTAL WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE SW ON SUN WHICH
WILL BRING ANOTHER WARM UP AND A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SUN-MON. THE
GFS HINTS AT COLDER AIR BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR TEMPS IN THE 20S
AND TEENS. I BUMPED THE TEMPS UP SLIGHTLY TUE-WED BUT OVERALL
BELOW AVE TEMPS STILL LIKELY.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
     FOR AKZ019.
         WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AKST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     AKZ017.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ022-041>043-051.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-013-033>036-052.

&&

JBT/TA