Wind Advisory 16, NWS Juneau, AK

000 
WWAK77 PAJK 271351
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
451 AM AKST TUE JAN 27 2009


AKZ018-271500-
/X.EXP.PAJK.WI.Y.0016.000000T0000Z-090127T1400Z/
TAIYA INLET AND KLONDIKE HIGHWAY-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...SKAGWAY
451 AM AKST TUE JAN 27 2009

...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 5 AM AKST EARLY THIS MORNING...

THE WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 5 AM AKST EARLY THIS MORNING. 

THIS WILL BE THE LAST STATEMENT ON THIS EVENT.

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1255 PM AKST MON JAN 26 2009

.SHORT TERM...WINTER STORM MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA THIS
MORNING WILL ALL STATION REPORTING SNOW. ARCTIC FRONT ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST SE THROUGH DIXON ENTRANCE STARTING TO PUSH
ONSHORE. EXPECT ARCTIC FRONT TO CONTINUE NORTH AND EAST AND
BECOMING STATIONARY JUST NORTH OF FREDERIC SOUND THIS EVENING. A
DEVELOPING 985 MB LOW IN SOUTHERN GULF WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TODAY
TO BE JUST EAST OF SITKA THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN MOVE EAST ACROSS
CENTRAL PANHANDLE TONIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT EXTENDS NE
THROUGH CENTRAL GULF AND THEN ARCS SE THROUGH COASTAL WATERS AND
IS FORECAST TO MOVE ONSHORE SOUTHERN AND COASTAL AREAS FROM THE
SW LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN MOVE ALOFT OVER CENTRAL
PANHANDLE TONIGHT.

 MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AND AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN
AND COASTAL ZONES WILL TRANSITION TO RAIN AND WIND BY THIS
EVENING. EXTENDED WINTER WEATHER TO ACCOUNT FOR THE TIME IT WILL
TAKE TO CROSS THE ZONE.

 HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW AHEAD OF ARCTIC FRONT CONTINUING
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AREAS INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WARM FRONT
MOVES INTO SOUTH CENTRAL THIS EVENING WHERE IT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ALOFT. THIS WILL CAUSE PRECIP TYPE PROBLEMS AS SOME AREAS
WILL CHANGE TO RAIN WHILE OTHERS IN BETTER PROTECTED LOCATIONS
STAY ALL SNOW. WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN IN FORECAST
TONIGHT... ESPECIALLY NEAR STIKINE OUTFLOW WITH BQPA2 STILL AT
23F. HAVE UPPED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL DUE BETTER
FORCING PRODUCING MORE PRECIP AND SLIGHTLY LONGER DURATION.

 HEAVIEST SNOWFALL ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL EXPECTED LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING UNDER AREA FRONTOGENESIS FROM INCREASING NORTHERLIES
TO THE NORTH AND APPROACHING SOUTHERLIES TO SOUTH. STILL THINK
9 TO 15 INCHES IS GOOD FOR AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO NEAR
FREEZING THIS AFTERNOON BUT CAA TONIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPS BACK IN
LOWER 20S BY TUESDAY MORNING.

 LESS PRECIP EXPECTED FOR NORTHERN SOUTHEAST ALASKA BUT COLDER
TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW FOR A HIGHER SNOW TO WATER RATIO AND
COMBINED WITH ADVISORY LEVEL NORTH WINDS IN SKAGWAY...BLOWING
SNOW WILL BE AN ISSUE SO KEPT WSW/WWY IN PLACE.

 OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED FOR PAYA INTO EVENING THEN
DECREASING CLOUDS THROUGH TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...YET ANOTHER WINTER STORM IS EXPECTED ON THE HEELS OF
THE CURRENT STORM. IT WILL BE AFFECTING THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY AS THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW MOVING UP THE
ALASKA PENINSULA MOVES INTO THE PANHANDLE. SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
ZONES SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH TO SEE MOSTLY RAIN. THE NORTHERN ZONES
ARE STILL A LITTLE UNCERTAIN AS TO WHAT TYPE OF PRECIP THEY WILL
GET PARTICULARLY FROM JUNEAU TO GUSTAVUS TO HOONAH. THE RAIN SNOW
LINE LIES SOUTH OF JUNEAU AND HOONAH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AND
MOVES NORTHWARD THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THINK THAT THE PRECIP WILL
START OUT AS SNOW IN JUNEAU AND HOONAH THURSDAY MORNING AND THEN
MIX WITH OR CHANGE OVER TO RAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE AGAIN
CHANGING BACK TO SNOW LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AS TEMPS FALL BELOW
FREEZING ONCE AGAIN. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM JUST UNDER
ADVISORY CRITERIA TO WARNING AMOUNTS UP NEAR HAINES AND SKAGWAY BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

A CHANCE OF PRECIP REMAINS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO BE RAIN AND SNOW FOR
THE SOUTHERN ZONES AND SNOW OR RAIN AND SNOW FOR THE REST OF THE PANHANDLE.

MODELS WERE IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT OVERALL. FAVORED THE GFS
SOLUTION FOR THE LONG TERM. EC CARRIED THE THURSDAY LOW A LITTLE
TO FAR TO THE NW FOR MY LIKING. BEYOND SATURDAY...FAVORED THE HPC
GUIDANCE AS THE MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY BEYOND THAT POINT.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 AM AKST TUESDAY FOR AKZ026.
         WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM AKST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     AKZ023-027-028.
         WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM AKST THIS EVENING FOR AKZ020-022-
     024.
         WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT FOR AKZ019-021-
     025.
         WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 12 PM AKST TUESDAY FOR AKZ029.
         WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT FOR AKZ018.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ036-041>043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011>013-021-022-031>035-051-052.

MM/EAL