Wind Advisory 101, NWS Juneau, AK

000 
WWAK77 PAJK 230040
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
340 PM AKST TUE DEC 22 2009

AKZ018-230145-
/X.EXP.PAJK.WI.Y.0101.000000T0000Z-091223T0100Z/
TAIYA INLET AND KLONDIKE HIGHWAY-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...SKAGWAY
340 PM AKST TUE DEC 22 2009

...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 4 PM AKST THIS AFTERNOON...

THE WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 4 PM AKST THIS AFTERNOON. 

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL STATEMENT ON THIS EVENT.

$$

AKZ023-027-231400-
/X.NEW.PAJK.WI.Y.0102.091223T1500Z-091224T0000Z/
CAPE DECISION TO SALISBURY SOUND COASTAL AREA-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION COASTAL AREA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SITKA...PORT ALEXANDER...CRAIG...
KLAWOCK
340 PM AKST TUE DEC 22 2009

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 3 PM AKST WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JUNEAU HAS ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 3 PM AKST WEDNESDAY. 

* WIND: SOUTHEAST WIND WILL INCREASE TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40
  MPH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 5 AM AKST WEDNESDAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

AKZ028-231400-
/X.NEW.PAJK.WI.Y.0102.091223T1800Z-091224T0300Z/
SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...KETCHIKAN...METLAKATLA
340 PM AKST TUE DEC 22 2009

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM AKST WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JUNEAU HAS ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM AKST WEDNESDAY. 

* WIND: SOUTHEAST WIND WILL INCREASE TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40
  MPH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 5 AM AKST WEDNESDAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

BECKER

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
603 AM AKST TUE DEC 22 2009

.SHORT TERM...300 MB AND 500 MB RIDGE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE
TO THE EAST AND CLOSE OFF A HIGH OVER NORTHERN ALASKA. NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES OVER THE SE PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWEST FLOW
DOMINATES THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. SATELLITE
REVEALS HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS SPILLING OVER THE RIDGE AXIS
INTO THE PANHANDLE. COASTAL LOCATIONS CIGS HAVE FALLEN FROM VFR
TO MVFR AND THIN HIGH OVERCAST NOW COVER MOST OF THE INNER
CHANNELS PROVIDING A SLIGHT MODERATION ON A COLD MORNING. FRONTAL
BAND EVIDENT ON IR SATELLITE IN THE CENTRAL GULF ASSOCIATED WITH
RETROGRADING LOW IN THE BERING SEA. THE FRONT CONTINUES TO
STRETCH AND WEAKEN AT THIS TIME.

 WINDS REMAIN LIGHT ACROSS THE PANHANDLE THIS MORNING WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF PAGY WHICH HAS FLIRTED WITH ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS
EARLY THIS MORNING AS 1036 MB HIGH SLOWLY MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST
IN BRITISH COLUMBIA. WINDS REMAIN GUSTY OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES
ALONG THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS WITH PBPA STILL EXPERIENCING 30 KT
GUSTS.

 WIND AND SNOW ARE THE FORECAST CONCERNS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT AS GALE FORCE LOW STRENGTHENS AND MOVES NORTH ALONG THE
OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE WESTERN GULF THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT. 985 MB LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH AND THEN NORTHWEST
AND BE NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE KENAI PENINSULA BY 18Z WED.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY WITH ALL OFFSHORE
AND OUTSIDE WATERS AT GALES BY THIS EVENING AND STORM LEVEL WINDS
IN ASSOCIATION WITH BARRIER JET THIS EVENING IN MKZ 52 AS WARM
FRONT OCCLUDES AS IT APPROACHES THE NORTHERN COAST LATE TONIGHT.
BARRIER JET PEGS 65 TO 70 KTS AT 850 MB JUST OFF SHORE FROM ZONE
17. WIND FIELDS IN THE MODELS DISPLAYING CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES
IN TIME STRENGTH AND LOCATIONS OF NOT ONLY THE BARRIER JET BUT
ALSO FRONTAL POSITION AND ATTENDING WINDS AS IT APPROACHES THE
OUTER COAST AS WELL. WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED ALONG THE
OUTER COAST AND IN ZONE 17 LATE TONIGHT OR TOMORROW MORNING AND
FOR ZONES 22 23 LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. WOULD LIKE TO SEE
BETTER MODEL CONSENSUS ON LOCATION AND STRENGTH BEFORE PULLING
TRIGGER ON WIND ADVISORIES.

 DEEP AND COLD AIR ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE PANHANDLE ATTM WILL
ALLOW FOR PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM TO
START AS ALL SNOW THIS AFTERNOON IN PAYA. MODEL THICKNESS
PROFILES AND SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO CHANGE
OVER TO A RAIN SNOW MIX BY 09Z TO 12Z ON THE NAM12 EC AND UKMET.
THE MIX WITH RAIN COMES AT 15 TO 18Z ON THE GFS. A QUICK 1 TO
3 INCHES INDICATED FOR PAYA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE
MIXING WITH RAIN TONIGHT. GFS WAS OUTLIER SOLUTION AND WAS NOT
USED IN GRIDS. A LATER CHANGE OVER FROM ALL SNOW WOULD LIKELY
MEET ADVISORY LEVEL CRITERIA FOR NOW IN PAYA. AS PARENT LOW IS IN
THE WESTERN GULF THE FRONT WEAKENS AND STRETCHES AS IT APPROACHES
THE OUTER COAST. THERE IS A FAIRLY TIGHT POP GRADIENT WITH LIKELY
POP ON THE COAST AND CHANCE POPS IN THE INNER CHANNELS TONIGHT.
MINIMAL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED ALONG THE COST SOUTH OF PASI AND
1 TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTAL ZONES NORTH OF PASI.

 NAM12 AGAIN WAS HANDLING THE GRADIENT ALONG THE COASTAL MOUNTAIN
BEST AND WAS PREFERRED GUIDANCE. ECMWF AND NAM12 CLUSTERED WELL
AT THE TAIL END OF THE SHORT TERM. A BLEND OF THE TWO MODELS WAS
USED TO NUDGE INHERITED GRIDS. THIS COMBINATION INTRODUCED
MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE GRIDS OTHER THAN A SLIGHTLY FASTER
SOLUTION OF ABOUT 3 HOURS ON APPROACHING GALE FORCE LOW. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS MODEL SPREAD IS
LARGER TODAY THAN OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUING ACROSS THE FORECAST DOMAIN THROUGH
LATE THURSDAY. THE ECMWF HAS SHOWN A BETTER RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY
THAN OTHER MODELS WITH THE ORIENTATION OF THE RIDGE AND THE
POSITION OF THE INCOMING UPPER LOW FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC. THE
ECMWF ALSO SHOWS A BIT STRONGER TREND OF THE LOW TRACKING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC. BASED ON THE BETTER
CONTINUITY...PREFERRED THE ECMWF SOLUTIONS AND BLENDED INTO THE
INHERITED GRIDS THROUGH THE END OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

 THE POSITIVELY TILTED RIDGE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF
AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA DOWN SOUTH TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH
LATE THURSDAY WITH GUSTY OFFSHORE FLOW OUT OF THE INTERIOR PASSES.
THE INTERACTION OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN ACROSS THE
OUTER WATERS AND PANHANDLE COASTAL SECTIONS ON WEDNESDAY WITH
INCREASING WINDS/SEAS AND POPS.

 THE ARRIVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL GENERATE GALE FORCE WINDS AND
ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE AND OUTSIDE WATERS INCLUDING OCEAN
ENTRANCES OF INNER CHANNELS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWESTERN PANHANDLE COASTS WILL EXPERIENCE ADVISORY LEVEL
WIND GUSTS AS WELL FROM ELFIN COVE SOUTHEAST TO CRAIG ON WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.

 THE EMBEDDED CUT-OFF LOW OF THE INCOMING TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE FAR SOUTH WESTERN GULF BY EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...A SECONDARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
DRIFT TOWARDS THE PANHANDLE COAST FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

 A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST DOMAIN
WITH THE INCOMING TROUGH THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS THE RIDGE
GRADUALLY MOVE EAST AWAY FROM THE AREA...A COLDER AIR WILL RETURN
TO THE FORECAST AREAS FROM THE CANADIAN CONTINENT FROM SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ052.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ041>043-051.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011>013-021-022-031>036-053.

&&

CCC/AHN