Wind Advisory 10, NWS Juneau, AK

000 
WWAK77 PAJK 121603
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
703 AM AKST MON JAN 12 2009

AKZ027-121715-
/X.CAN.PAJK.WI.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-090112T2100Z/
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION COASTAL AREA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CRAIG...KLAWOCK
703 AM AKST MON JAN 12 2009

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JUNEAU HAS CANCELLED THE WIND
ADVISORY. 

STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL STATEMENT ON THIS EVENT.

$$

AKZ017-022-023-122100-
/X.CON.PAJK.WI.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-090112T2100Z/
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO CAPE SUCKLING COASTAL AREA-
SALISBURY SOUND TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER COASTAL AREA-
CAPE DECISION TO SALISBURY SOUND COASTAL AREA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...YAKUTAT...ELFIN COVE...PELICAN...
SITKA...PORT ALEXANDER
703 AM AKST MON JAN 12 2009

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON AKST TODAY...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON AKST TODAY. 

THE WEATHER FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE GULF WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
GUST TO 40 MPH IN EXPOSED AREAS OVER THE PANHANDLE COASTLINE FROM
YAKUTAT SOUTH TO THE DIXON ENTRANCE. THE WINDS WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY NOON AKST MONDAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

$$

AKZ018-122100-
/X.CON.PAJK.WI.Y.0010.090113T0000Z-090113T1200Z/
TAIYA INLET AND KLONDIKE HIGHWAY-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...SKAGWAY
703 AM AKST MON JAN 12 2009

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
3 AM AKST TUESDAY...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
3 AM AKST TUESDAY. 

THE WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE SOUTH AND INCREASE TO 25 MPH WITH
HIGHER GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW IN THE GULF THIS MORNING
LIFTS INTO THE YUKON. THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND BY
THE LATE AFTERNOON WINDS GUSTS WILL REACH 40 MPH. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AND BEGIN TO
DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT.

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY NOON AKST MONDAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

$$

000 
WWAK77 PAJK 122051
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1151 AM AKST MON JAN 12 2009

AKZ017-022-023-122200-
/X.EXP.PAJK.WI.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-090112T2100Z/
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO CAPE SUCKLING COASTAL AREA-
SALISBURY SOUND TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER COASTAL AREA-
CAPE DECISION TO SALISBURY SOUND COASTAL AREA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...YAKUTAT...ELFIN COVE...PELICAN...
SITKA...PORT ALEXANDER
1151 AM AKST MON JAN 12 2009

...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT NOON AKST TODAY...

THE WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT NOON AKST TODAY. 

THIS IS THE FINAL STATEMENT ON THIS EVENT.

$$

AKZ018-130500-
/X.CON.PAJK.WI.Y.0010.090113T0000Z-090113T1200Z/
TAIYA INLET AND KLONDIKE HIGHWAY-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...SKAGWAY
1151 AM AKST MON JAN 12 2009

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
3 AM AKST TUESDAY...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
3 AM AKST TUESDAY. 

THE WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE SOUTH AND INCREASE TO 25 MPH WITH
HIGHER GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW IN THE GULF LIFTS INTO
THE YUKON. THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON WINDS GUSTS WILL REACH 40 MPH. THESE CONDITIONS WILL 
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AND BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT.

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 8 PM AKST MONDAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

$$

000 
WWAK77 PAJK 122357
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
257 PM AKST MON JAN 12 2009

AKZ019-130800-
/X.EXA.PAJK.WI.Y.0010.090113T0000Z-090113T1200Z/
HAINES BOROUGH AND LYNN CANAL-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...HAINES
257 PM AKST MON JAN 12 2009

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM AKST TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JUNEAU HAS ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM AKST TUESDAY. 

SOUTH WIND TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH...STRONGEST WINDS
WILL BE FROM HAINES SOUTH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 11 PM AKST MONDAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

$$

AKZ018-130800-
/X.CON.PAJK.WI.Y.0010.090113T0000Z-090113T1200Z/
TAIYA INLET AND KLONDIKE HIGHWAY-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...SKAGWAY
257 PM AKST MON JAN 12 2009

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM AKST TUESDAY...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM AKST TUESDAY. 

SOUTH WIND 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. 

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 11 PM AKST MONDAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

$$

000 
WWAK77 PAJK 130748
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1048 PM AKST MON JAN 12 2009

AKZ018-019-131200-
/X.CON.PAJK.WI.Y.0010.000000T0000Z-090113T1200Z/
TAIYA INLET AND KLONDIKE HIGHWAY-HAINES BOROUGH AND LYNN CANAL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SKAGWAY...HAINES
1048 PM AKST MON JAN 12 2009

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM AKST TUESDAY...

SOUTH WIND TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE IN TAIYA
INLET AND ALONG LYNN CANAL.

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 11 PM AKST MONDAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

$$

000 
WWAK77 PAJK 130910
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1210 AM AKST TUE JAN 13 2009

AKZ018-019-131200-
/X.CON.PAJK.WI.Y.0010.000000T0000Z-090113T1200Z/
TAIYA INLET AND KLONDIKE HIGHWAY-HAINES BOROUGH AND LYNN CANAL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SKAGWAY...HAINES
1210 AM AKST TUE JAN 13 2009

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM AKST EARLY THIS
MORNING...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM AKST EARLY THIS
MORNING. 

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 3 AM AKST TUESDAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

$$

000 
WWAK77 PAJK 131143
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
243 AM AKST TUE JAN 13 2009

AKZ018-019-131245-
/X.EXP.PAJK.WI.Y.0010.000000T0000Z-090113T1200Z/
TAIYA INLET AND KLONDIKE HIGHWAY-HAINES BOROUGH AND LYNN CANAL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SKAGWAY...HAINES
243 AM AKST TUE JAN 13 2009

...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 3 AM AKST EARLY THIS MORNING...

THE WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 3 AM AKST EARLY THIS MORNING. 

THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINSIH THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS AND BEGIN TO SWITCH AROUND THE NORTH.

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL STATEMENT ON THIS EVENT.

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1155 AM AKST SUN JAN 11 2009

.SHORT TERM... BIG PROBLEM TODAY IS SUBTROPICAL SOURCE REGION
FOR T-BONE SHAPED WEATHER SYSTEM/FRONT MOVING INTO SE TONIGHT.
COMPARE GFS AND NAM QPF TO AMSU AND THERE IS LOTS OF JUICE. WILL
ISSUE FLOOD WARNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES FOR WATER ON SNOW:
25 26 28 29. CONFIDENCE HIGH THAT THERE WILL BE PROBLEMS WITH
STREETS AND ROOFS.

THE LEAST FAVORITE MODEL TODAY IS THE GFS WHICH DRIVES THE MAIN
SFC LOW CENTER INLAND AT 36 HRS VT 00Z TUE. USED THE NAM FOR WIND
AND BLEND OF GFS AND NAM FOR QPF.

.LONG TERM...ONE LARGE SCALE WARM REGIMEN AFTER ANOTHER.
CHANGE TO FLOW WITH TROPICAL SOURCE REGION HAS BEGUN. THE GLOBAL
COMPOSITE IR SHOWS THE MERIDIONAL JET STREAM EXTENDING SOUTH OF THE
ALASKA PENINSULA BY ABOUT 2500 MILES.

A SECOND SECTION OF POLAR FRONT ZONE IS CROSSING THE DATELINE
IN A BROAD BAND FROM 300 TO 1200 NM S OF THE CHAIN. THIS SECOND
SECTION OF POLAR FRONT WILL PROVIDE THE STRONG WARMING FROM LOW
LATITUDES FOR DAYTIME TUE ONWARD.

MODELS: GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS AND HIGH FORECASTER CONFIDENCE THAT
THE THAT THE LARGE SCALE WARM UP AND CHANGE TO RAIN THAT IS
OCCURRING AT THIS TIME WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES PERSISTING
ABOVE FREEZING AND PERIODIC BANDS OF HEAVY RAIN. THE CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH FOR THESE WARMER CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST FRI NIGHT.

WE HAVE LESS CONFIDENCE IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR THE
INDIVIDUAL RAIN BANDS AND WIND EVENTS ASSOCIATED WITH
INDIVIDUAL FRONTAL WAVES.  RUN TO RUN CHANGES ARE SIGNIFICANT:
GFS MSLP MODEL DRIFT FOR 36 HR, AND 60 HR, INDICATE MODEL
ADJUSTMENTS.  THESE COMPLICATIONS WITH THE INDIVIDUAL
DETERMINISTIC MODELS ENCOURAGE THE USE OF HPC GUIDANCE, AND
THE USE OF MOS THAT ARE BEING FACTORED IN WITH INCREASING
WEIGHT FOR 12Z THU ONWARD.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 12 PM AKST MONDAY FOR
     AKZ017-022-023-027.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012-013-022-041>043-051-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-021-031>036.

JCC/JBT