Storm Warning 52, NWS Juneau, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAJK 172221 AAA
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
115 PM AKST THU DEC 17 2009 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-180100-
400 AM AKST THU DEC 17 2009 
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A LOW WILL MOVE N THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF THU AND THEN OVER THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE THURSDAY NIGHT. W GALE FORCE WINDS WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE GULF BY FRIDAY MORNING. 

$$

PKZ041-180100-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
115 PM AKST THU DEC 17 2009 

UPDATED

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND TO 50 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 24 FT BUILDING TO 26 FT LATE. RAIN.
.FRI...SW GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 18 FT. W SWELL. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. W SWELL. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-180100-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
115 PM AKST THU DEC 17 2009 

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND TO 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT BECOMING SW 45 KT LATE. SEAS 22 FT
BUILDING TO 25 FT LATE. RAIN.
.FRI...SW GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. W SWELL. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. W SWELL. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-180100-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
115 PM AKST THU DEC 17 2009 

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND TO 45 KT. SEAS 15 FT BUILDING TO 19 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT BECOMING W 45 KT LATE. SEAS 21 FT
BUILDING TO 24 FT LATE. RAIN.
.FRI...SW GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. W SWELL. 
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SW SWELL. 
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-180100-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
115 PM AKST THU DEC 17 2009 

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT BUILDING TO 17 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT BECOMING W 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN. SNOW
SHOWERS LATE. 
.FRI...SW GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-180100-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
115 PM AKST THU DEC 17 2009 

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING NW 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
11 FT. S SWELL. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
EVENING...THEN SNOW SHOWERS LATE. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SW SWELL. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SW SWELL. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SW SWELL. SNOW SHOWERS.
RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
442 PM AKST WED DEC 16 2009

.SHORT TERM...SAT IMAGERY AT NOON SHOWS A COMPLEX FORECAST
PATTERN OVER THE AK GULF AND SE PANHANDLE. LOW 1 OVER PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND WILL REMAIN THERE THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE
DISSIPATING N. THE FRONT FORM THIS SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED SNOW FALL
OVER PAYA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE BIG QUESTIONS IS
TEMPERATURES OVER PKZ17. TEMPS HAVE BEEN AT OR BELOW FREEZING
THROUGH THE DAY WITH MODELS SHOWING WARMER TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE ANOTHER COLD POOL TRACKING IN. MODEL 850 TEMPS WARMING TO
-3 THIS EVENING THEN DROPPING TO -9. DECIDED TO KEEP THE AREAS
MORE SNOW WITH A MIX OF RAIN...THAT SAID SNOW AMOUNTS WERE
INCREASED SO HAVE EXTENDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADV OUT TO 5 AM
THU. WINDS OVER THE N OUTER COAST ARE AT GALE FORCE AND EXPECT
THEM TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE THE LOW DISSIPATED.
TIMING IS A BIT UNCERTAIN SO COULD SEE A DRAMATIC DROP OFF
EARLIER THAN EXPECTED. LOW2 OVER THE QUEEN CHARLOTTES HAS BEEN
TRACKING NE TOWARD BC. THIS HAS BEEN PROVIDING SOME LIGHT SNOW
OVER THE SRN ZONES THIS MORNING BUT HAS DISSIPATING. SNOW FALL
OVER HYDER FORM THIS LOW HAS BEEN LESS THAN ANTICIPATED SO HAD
ENDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY OVER PKZ29 EARLY. LOW 3 IS
MOVING UP FROM THE N PAC THU INTO FRI WITH GALE FORCE WINDS IN
COASTAL WATER WITH WIND ADVY GUSTS OVER THE SRN 3 ZONES. FINAL
TIMING OF THIS WILL DEPEND OF LONG TERM. A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE FINAL TRACK OF THIS LOW AS GFS HAD THE LOW DUMBBELL OVER
THE PANHANDLE FRI AFTERNOON.

 MODEL OF CHOICE WAS THE GFS BUT MADE FEW CHANGES TO PRESS AND
WINDS IN THE GRIDS. BIGGEST CHANGES WERE COOLING OFF TEMPS TO THE
N SLIGHTLY KEEPING SNOW LONGER IN THE FORECAST WITH HIGHER
AMOUNTS. CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE. WHILE MODELS WERE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT AND INITIALIZED WELL THE TEMPERATURE RANGE SO CLOSE TO
A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN CAN CAUSE SOME LARGE DIFFERENCES IN SNOW
FALL AMOUNTS.

&&

.LONG TERM...LONG RANGE MODELS REMAIN IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH
WEEKEND BUT BEGIN TO DIVERGE BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THE
COLD UPPER TROUGH IN THE GULF OF ALASKA TILTS SE TO NW AS IT
SWINGS THROUGH SE ALASKA BY SATURDAY. THEN A NEW TROUGH ALOFT IS
ESTABLISHED FURTHER WEST OVER THE BERING SEA THAT BUILDS A RIDGE
IN THE GULF BY MONDAY. MODELS DIFFER IN THE EASTERLY PROGRESSION
OF THE RIDGE. FOLLOWED HPC PREFERENCE OF STEEPING THE RIDGE BUT
KEEPING IT FIXED IN THE GULF RATHER THAN MOVING IT THROUGH
SOUTHEAST ALASKA. ENSEMBLES SHOW CONSIDERABLE SPREAD ON THE EAST
SIDE OF THE RIDGE SO THERE IS STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY
ABOUT WHETHER OR NOT THE WESTERLIES WILL BREAK THROUGH THE RIDGE.

FOR THE WEEKEND THE RAIN WILL ABRUPTLY CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS AS
VERY COLD AND STRONG WESTERLY FLOW FOLLOWS THE TROUGH THAT MOVES
INLAND INTO CANADA. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF THUNDER WITH THE
SHARP TEMPERATURE CONTRAST OVER FRI NIGHT. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH
EARLY IN THE WEEK AS THE COLD ARE IS MODIFIED BY THE BUILDING
RIDGE.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON THURSDAY TO MIDNIGHT AKST THURSDAY NIGHT
     FOR AKZ027>029.
         WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM AKST THURSDAY FOR AKZ019.
         WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM AKST THURSDAY FOR AKZ017.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ011>013-022-033>036-041>043-051-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ021-031-032.

&&

PRB/CFD