Storm Warning 45, NWS Juneau, AK

Issued

Nov 13, 2009, 4:00 AM AKST (13:00 UTC)

Expired

Nov 13, 2009, 4:00 PM AKST

In force

12 hr

Issued by

NWS Juneau, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAJK 131309
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKST FRI NOV 13 2009 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-140100-
400 AM AKST FRI NOV 13 2009 
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
 A WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE PANHANDLE TODAY. A STORM FORCE
LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN GULF FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE
SOUTHERN YUKON SATURDAY. ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
PANHANDLE FRIDAY NIGHT. 

$$

PKZ041-140100-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 AM AKST FRI NOV 13 2009 

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW IN THE MORNING. SEAS 21 FT
SUBSIDING TO 19 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING...THEN RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 40 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT LATE. SEAS 16 FT
BUILDING TO 19 FT LATE. RAIN.
.SAT...SW GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 24 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 24 FT. W SWELL. RAIN
SHOWERS...SNOW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. 
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.TUE...S GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-140100-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
400 AM AKST FRI NOV 13 2009 

...GALE WARNING TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 35 KT BECOMING SW IN THE MORNING. SEAS 21 FT
SUBSIDING TO 18 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING...THEN RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...S WIND INCREASING TO 45 KT LATE. SEAS 17 FT BUILDING
TO 21 FT LATE. RAIN.
.SAT...SW STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT. SEAS 27 FT. RAIN AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 25 FT. RAIN SHOWERS...SNOW
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. 
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.TUE...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-140100-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
400 AM AKST FRI NOV 13 2009 

...GALE WARNING TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 35 KT BECOMING SW IN THE MORNING. SEAS 20 FT
SUBSIDING TO 17 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING...THEN RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT BUILDING TO 22 FT LATE. RAIN.
.SAT...SW STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT. SEAS 28 FT. RAIN AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 26 FT. RAIN SHOWERS...
SNOW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 20 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS...THEN RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-140100-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 AM AKST FRI NOV 13 2009 

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT SUBSIDING TO 14 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SNOW IN THE MORNING. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND INCREASING TO 40 KT LATE. SEAS 16 FT BUILDING
TO 20 FT LATE. RAIN.
.SAT...SW STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT. SEAS 28 FT. RAIN WITH
POSSIBLE SNOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 24 FT. RAIN SHOWERS...
SNOW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 18 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS...THEN SNOW AND RAIN. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-140100-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 AM AKST FRI NOV 13 2009 

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW IN THE
MORNING...THEN RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND BECOMING 35 KT LATE. SEAS 15 FT BUILDING TO
17 FT LATE. RAIN.
.SAT...SW STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT. SEAS 26 FT. RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SW SWELL. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

NWS Juneau, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this storm warning went out at Nov 12, 3:50 PM AKST, 12 hours 10 minutes earlier.

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
350 PM AKST THU NOV 12 2009

.SHORT TERM...ACTIVE WEATHER DAY AGAIN AS POWERFUL COLD FRONT
CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH THE PANHANDLE. FRONT IS ALONG A TAKU
INLET TO PAGN LINE AND CONTINUES TO MOVES EAST AND SOUTHEAST.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE WITH ADVISORY
LEVEL GUSTS IN ZONES 26 27 28 AND EXPOSED LOCATIONS IN ZONE 29.
CLARENCE STRAIT CURRENTLY AT STORM FORCE WINDS WITH 50KTS
SUSTAINED AND GUSTS TO 66 KT. RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES CONTINUES
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND IS MIXING WITH SNOW AT TIMES IN PAPG.

BEHIND THE FRONT WINDS QUICKLY DIMINISH AND TURN TO WEST OR
NORTHWEST AND THERE IS A RAPID TRANSITION TO SHOWER ACTIVITY. ICE
PELLETS MIXING IN SHOWERS AS NOTED IN PASI OB AS WELL AS JUNEAU
WFO OFFICE. CIGS AND VIS HAVE JUMPED BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR WITH
PASSING SHOWERS OF RAIN AND RAIN AND SNOW AND SNOW AFTER THE
FRONT. MAX SCA FORCE WINDS STILL IN THE OUTSIDE WATERS WITH STRONG
GRADIENT. CAPE SPENSER STILL GUSTING TO 55KTS ATTM.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING IN THE
SOUTHERN ZONES AS FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO CANADA. A TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF ATTM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
SOUTHEAST INCREASING COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS EVIDENT ON RADAR IN THE GULF. ATMOS IS SUFFICIENTLY
UNSTABLE WITH VERY CHILLY AIR ALOFT AND WITH VORTICITY ASSOCIATED
WITH TROUGH...CAN NOT RULE OUT LIGHTNING THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND OUTSIDE WATERS. WINDS ALSO
INCREASE TOMORROW A 850 MB WIND MAX APPROACHING 50 KTS PUSHES
ONSHORE FROM THE SOUTHWEST. ATTM GRIDS FALL SHORT OF ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS FOR BULLSEYE ZONES 23 AND 25.

MODEL GUIDANCE WAS CONSISTENT TODAY WITH PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS AND
DIFFERED MINIMALLY IN BETWEEN MODEL FAMILIES IN THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. OPTED TO UPDATE OFFICIAL GRIDS WITH A BLEND OF 12Z NAM12
AND 12Z GFS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM.

.LONG TERM...THE EXPLOSIVE CYCLOGENESIS EVENT TRACKING NE INTO THE CNTRL
GLFALSK IS STILL TO OCCUR DURG 00Z SAT TO 12Z FRI. THE INFLECTION
OF THE POLAR FRONT WILL RAPIDLY OCCLUDE SHORTLY BEFORE LANDFALL
DURING THE SAME PERIOD.  ABT 00Z MON THE CDFNT WILL EXTEND NE
TO SW OVER CWZV.  NOTE THE DISCUSSION OF STRONG COLD ADVECTION
THAT IS GIVEN BLO.

THE EXPLOSIVE CYCLOGENESIS HAS A PRIOR WAVE MOVING NE ALONG THE
AK PEN.  THIS WAVE AS WELL AS THE EARLY CYCLONE WAVE EVOLUTION
IS GIVEN A MORE REALISTIC TREATMENT BY THE GFS THAN THE ECMWF.
WHILE THIS VIEW IS REACHED BASED ON EXPERIENCE AND IS THEREFORE
SUBJECTIVE, THE SAME CONLUSION WAS INDEPENDANTLY REACHED BY THIS
OFFICE AND PAFC.

LANDFALL OF THE NEWLY FORMED OCFNT SHOULD OCCUR FM PASI N BY
12Z SAT. MODEST DIFFERENCES IN FRONTAL TIMING ARE GIVEN IN THE
MODELS, FOR SAT 12Z ONWARD, BUT THIS FAR IN THE FUTURE
THE AGREEMENT IS GOOD.

STRONG AND LONG COLD ADJECTION WILL OCCCUR AFTER FROPA. FOR EXAMPLE
INVOG PAKT: THE 1000-500 MB THICKNESS DROPS FM 540 DAM 18Z SAT
TO 519 DAM 18Z SUN. THIS STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL ALSO
OCCUR OVER ALL THE INNER CHANNELS THAT CAN RETAIN MUCH OF
THE PRIOR WARM AMS IN THE LOWER BNDRY LAYER. POST FROPA
CONVECTION WILL CHANGE MOST OF THE PRECIP TO SNOW SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY N OF FREDERICK SOUND.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     AKZ022-023-027-028.
         WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AKST THIS EVENING FOR AKZ018-028-029.
         HIGH WIND WATCH SATURDAY MORNING FOR AKZ029.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ041.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ011>013-021-022-031>036-042-043-051-052.

&&

CCC/JBT

Storm Warnings in Alaska, 2009Every storm warning in 2009

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.