Storm Warning 40, NWS Juneau, AK

000 
FZAK67 PAJK 250017
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 PM AKST TUE NOV 24 2009 

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-251400-
400 PM AKST TUE NOV 24 2009 
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 966 MB STORM FORCE LOW WILL TRACK INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF
OVERNIGHT AND THEN NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE CENTRAL OUTER COAST ON
WEDNESDAY WHILE SLOWLY WEAKENING. A SECOND LOW WILL FORM IN THE
NORTH CENTRAL GULF OVERNIGHT AND TRACK NORTH TOWARDS PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND.  

$$

PKZ310-251400-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
400 PM AKST TUE NOV 24 2009 

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 16 FT.
RAIN IN THE EVENING. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING N 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
19 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SW SWELL. SHOWERS.
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
214 PM AKST MON NOV 23 2009

.SHORT TERM...THE FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH ALL PANHANDLE
LOCATIONS EXCEPT FOR YAKUTAT AND AS OF EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A
SHORT WAVE VISIBLE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY IS LOCATED JUST OFF THE
COAST AND APPEARS TO BE GETTING SHEARED QUITE A BIT...AS IT
LOOKED A LOT MORE IMPRESSIVE EARLIER THIS MORNING. ANTICIPATED
SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE NOW BEGINNING TO
REPLACE THE STEADY STATE PRECIP FROM EARLIER. LOOKS LIKE THE RAIN
SNOW LINE GOT AS FAR SOUTH AS FREDERICK SOUND ON THE INSIDE
OVERNIGHT. HAVE BEEN WATCHING SNOW CHANGE TO RAIN SHOWERS FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. CURRENTLY ONLY HAVE SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE FAR NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS. OBS FROM
HAINES INDICATING THAT THE HEAVY SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY HAVE
BEGUN A LITTLE PRIOR TO THE WINTER WEATHER WARNING...WHICH
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. SNOW
SHOWERS IN SKAGWAY AS WELL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT DO NOT
EXPECT TO SEE ENOUGH ACCUMULATION TO REQUIRE A WARNING OR
ADVISORY THERE.

 FARTHER SOUTH AND OFFSHORE...VERY IMPRESSIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD
PATTERNS IN THE IMAGERY AND HAVE SEEN LIGHTNING OVER THE QUEEN
CHARLOTTES AND NEAR PRINCE RUPERT. BASED ON CONVECTIVE GUIDANCE
AND WHAT IS VISIBLE IN IMAGERY...AM PLANNING ON ADDING ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE COASTAL MARINE ZONES FROM CAPE SPENCER SOUTH
FOR THIS EVENING.

 AS THE FRONT CONTINUES INLAND OVER CANADA...THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL RE-ORIENT OUT OF THE SOUTH. AS IS OFTEN THE
CASE...WINDS OVER LYNN CANAL AND THROUGH ZONE 18 WILL BE
STRONGEST. HAVE A WIND ADVISORY BEGINNING THIS EVENING AND LASTING
FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. BY TOMORROW MORNING...THE GRADIENT WILL RE-
ORIENT AGAIN IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT FRONT WHICH SHOULD ARRIVE
OVER THE SOUTHERN OUTER COAST LATE TUESDAY. WINDS IN ADVANCE OF
THIS FRONT LOOKING PRETTY STRONG WITH 65 TO 75 KTS AT 850 MB. WILL
BE ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE OUTSIDE COAST FROM CAPE SPENCER
SOUTH AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN ZONES.

 SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE COASTAL MARINE ZONES TONIGHT DUE
TO WINDS AND/OR SEAS WILL GIVE WAY TO GALE WARNINGS TOMORROW IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. ALSO HAVE BRIEF PERIOD OF STORM FORCE
CONDITIONS IN COASTAL ZONE 43. SMALL CRAFT SOUTHERLIES TONIGHT
OVER LYNN CANAL AND GLACIER BAY. FOR TOMORROW...SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING OVER ALL INNER CHANNELS EXCEPT SOUTHEAST
GALES IN CLARENCE STRAIT BY MORNING AND EAST GALES FOR ICY
STRAIT/CROSS SOUND BY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUE NIGHT THRU SUN/...A SOMEWHAT MILDER SW FLOW ALFT
BECOMING ESTABLISHED OVER SEAK MID TO LATE THIS WEEK FOR A RETURN
TO LOW ELEVATION RAIN INSTEAD OF SNOW. SEVERAL NOTABLE STORM
SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH THE GULF DURING THE EXTENDED RANGE. GLOBAL
MODELS SHOW THE SURFACE LOW CENTERS STAYING WEST OR NW OF THE
PANHANDLE THEREBY MAINTAINING A MOIST AIR MASS OVER THE FCST AREA
AND ALTERNATING WARMING/COOLING AHEAD OF/BEHIND SYSTEMS ON TUE
NIGHT...THANKSGIVING AND SAT.

BY TUE NIGHT THE WEATHER SYSTEM SEEN ON TODAYS SATELLITE IMAGERY
EXTENDING EAST FROM THE SFC LOW NEAR 44N 160W WILL BE LIFTING NWD
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND INTO SE AK. TEMPS AT 850 MB /ROUGHLY
5K FT MSL/ WARM BRIEFLY TO NEAR 0 DEG C EARLY WED IN ALL BUT FAR
NORTHERN ZONES. THAT SYSTEM SLINGS INLAND WED AND WILL BE REPLACED
WITH TEMPORARY RIDGING AND A RETURN TO COOLER WLY FLOW OFF THE
GULF. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES NE THROUGH THE GULF WED
NIGHT AND THANGSGIVING DAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN AND STIFF S WINDS
ALG OUTER COAST. 850MB TEMPS LOWER TO ABOUT -3 C THUR WHICH MAKES
FOR SNOW LEVELS SLOPING FROM AT OR BELOW 1K IN N AND 2K FT MSL IN S.
SFC PRESSURE GRADIENTS IN GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE GOOD LOW LEVEL
ELY FLOW /DOWNSLOPING/ AND MAY KEEP PRECIP AMOUNTS ON LIGHT SIDE
DESPITE GOOD WLY ONSHORE FLOW ALFT PERPENDICULAR TO TOPOGRAPHY
WHICH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE GOOD SNOW ACCUMULATION ABOVE SNOW LEVELS.

WAY OUT AT END OF EXTENDED RANGE AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK THE GFS
INDICATES A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDING ALONG ENTIRE
WEST COAST. THE ECMWF SHOWS MUCH FLATTER WESTERLY /WETTER/ FLOW
PATTERN. THE 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FROM NCEP/CPC FAVORS ABV AVE TEMPS
AND PCPN WHICH WOULD INDICATE RIDGING INTO SEAK BUT NOT STRONG
ENOUGH TO BLOCK A MOIST SW FLOW.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM AKST TUESDAY FOR AKZ023-027.
         WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM AKST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     AKZ020-021-025.
         WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 6 PM AKST TUESDAY FOR AKZ022-028.
         WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TO 6 PM AKST TUESDAY FOR AKZ029.
         WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM AKST THIS EVENING FOR AKZ019.
         WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM AKST TUESDAY FOR
     AKZ018.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ043.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ021-022-036-041-042-051-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011>013-031>035.

&&

FRITSCH/TA