Storm Warning 4, NWS Juneau, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAJK 061832 AAA
CWFAJK

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
930 AM AKST TUE JAN 6 2009 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA INSIDE WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO SKAGWAY

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ098-070100-
400 AM AKST TUE JAN 6 2009 
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
A 985 MB LOW IN THE NORTHEAST GULF WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE YUKON THROUGH
TUESDAY. A LOW WILL MOVE QUICKLY EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF AND
OVER THE QUEEN CHARLOTTES TUESDAY EVENING. OUTLOOK. A STRONG
GALE FORCE LOW WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHERN GULF BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

$$

PKZ011-070100-
GLACIER BAY-
400 AM AKST TUE JAN 6 2009 

...GALE WARNING TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
6 FT BUILDING TO 8 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU AND FRI...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ012-070100-
NORTHERN LYNN CANAL-
400 AM AKST TUE JAN 6 2009 

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 50 KT. SEAS 9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 50 KT. SEAS 9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...N GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...NE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU AND FRI...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ013-070100-
SOUTHERN LYNN CANAL-
400 AM AKST TUE JAN 6 2009 

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 50 KT. SEAS 9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 50 KT. SEAS 9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...NE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SNOW.
.FRI...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ021-070100-
ICY STRAIT-
930 AM AKST TUE JAN 6 2009 

UPDATED

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT BECOMING E IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...NE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...NE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SNOW.
.FRI...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ022-070100-
CROSS SOUND-
400 AM AKST TUE JAN 6 2009 

...GALE WARNING TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...NE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SNOW.
.FRI...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ031-070100-
STEPHENS PASSAGE-
400 AM AKST TUE JAN 6 2009 

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND TO 30 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES.
SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES.
SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...N GALE TO 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF INTERIOR
PASSES. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES.
SEAS 7 FT. SNOW.
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ032-070100-
NORTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
930 AM AKST TUE JAN 6 2009 

UPDATED

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW.
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ033-070100-
SOUTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
400 AM AKST TUE JAN 6 2009 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT...EXCEPT 8 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 5 FT...
EXCEPT 8 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. 
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW.
.FRI...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ034-070100-
FREDERICK SOUND-
930 AM AKST TUE JAN 6 2009 

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES.
SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES.
SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW.
.FRI...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ035-070100-
SUMNER STRAIT-
400 AM AKST TUE JAN 6 2009 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 10 KT BECOMING W 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
BUILDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES...SEAS 6
FT. SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW.
.FRI...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ036-070100-
CLARENCE STRAIT-
400 AM AKST TUE JAN 6 2009 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 10 KT BECOMING NW 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
BUILDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES...SEAS 6
FT. SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW.
.FRI...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
126 PM AKST MON JAN 5 2009

.SHORT TERM...985 MB LOW IN THE NORTHEAST GULF WILL REMAIN QUASI
STATIONARY THROUGH TONIGHT THEN START TO DIG SE ON TUESDAY. A
TROUGH/ARCTIC COLD FRONT EXTENDS SE OF THE LOW AND ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL PANHANDLE IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH AND WEST TO
COASTAL WATERS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A 1020 MB ARCTIC HIGH WILL
BUILD INTO THE SOUTHERN YUKON TONIGHT.

 BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO ROTATE INTO NORTHERN PANHANDLE
TODAY WHILE OPEN CELLED SHOWERS ARE MOVING INTO SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS ARE PRODUCING MODERATE SNOW OF
AROUND 1 INCH PER HOUR BUT AREA USUALLY SHORT LIVED. EXPECT AT
LEAST ONE MORE VORT LOBE TO ROTATE ACROSS CENTRAL PANHANDLE
TONIGHT AS 50H LOW PUSHES NORTHEAST AND OVER NORTHERN SOUTHEAST
ALASKA. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE AND OPTED TO
KEEP A GENERIC WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR 3 TO 5 INCHES IN A
12 HOUR PERIOD FOR MUCH OF COASTAL AND CENTRAL PANHANDLE THROUGH
TONIGHT.

 IN THE FAR NORTH THE NORTH WINDS HAVE TEMPORARILY SUBSIDED WITH
WINDS GUSTING LESS THAN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER...DO
EXPECT NORTHERLY GRADIENTS TO REBUILD THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH
STRONG GALES RETURNING TO THE NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS TONIGHT.
WINDS IN HAINES AND SKAGWAY SHOULD ALSO INCREASE WITH GUSTS
50 MPH EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW SINGLE
DIGITS CURRENTLY HAVE WIND CHILLS AROUND 15 BELOW ZERO BUT THIS
SHOULD LOWER AS TEMPERATURES FALL TONIGHT. WIND CHILL FOR WHITE
PASS IS CLOSER TO 35 BELOW ZERO. ALSO STILL EXPECT ARES OF
BLOWING SNOW AND HAVE OPTED TO PACKAGE THIS AS A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY AS WELL THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

 IN THE COASTAL AND OFFSHORE WATERS HAVE SEEN WESTERLY GALES
DIMINISH THROUGH THE MORNING AND SHOULD BE AT SMCR LEVELS THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE NORTHERN GULF SHOULD SEE WINDS GO TO THE NE TONIGHT
WITH STRONGER GUSTS OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES DEVELOPING. SEAS CAME
UP TO 20 FEET IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS DUE TO A SW SWELL BUT NOW
ARE STARTING TO SUBSIDE WHILE COASTAL BUOYS HAVE AROUND 14 FT
WHICH SHOULD START TO EASE LATER TONIGHT. ALSO NOTE TEMPERATURES
NOW IN THE 20S WITH DEW POINT AS LOW AS THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS
THE WESTERN GULF AND TEMPERATURES NOW BELOW FREEZING FOR EASTERN
GULF SO WILL INCLUDE SOME FREEZING SPRAY IN PKZ043-051 TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM... WEATHER WILL REMAIN COLD THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEHIND THE CURRENT SNOW. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN THE YUKON WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE HIGH PRESSURE
GRADIENTS ALONG THE COAST RANGES REINFORCING THE ARCTIC AIR THAT
IS ALREADY IN PLACE. IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE...A LONG WAVE TROUGH
IS FIXED OVER THE AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AND WILL BE
PUSHED OFF TO THE EAST AS A RIDGE BUILDS IN AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM ON THURSDAY.

MAJOR FORECASTING CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM IS THE SYSTEM MOVING
INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY. CURRENTLY IT LOOKS LIKE THE PRECIP WILL
START TO FALL LATE THURSDAY AS THE MOIST ONSHORE FLOW AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM STARTS OVERRUNNING THE ARCTIC AIR AT THE SURFACE AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EXPECT PRECIP TO REMAIN FROZEN OVER
MOST OF THE PANHANDLE TO START OUT BUT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
POSSIBLY WARM TEMPS UP ENOUGH TO HAVE THE SNOW START MIXING WITH
RAIN AS FAR NORTH AS JUNEAU SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

AFTER SATURDAY THE MODELS DIFFER BY A LARGE MARGIN BUT SEEM TO
POINT TO A WARMING TREND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. GRIDS WERE
UPDATED WITH A BLEND OF INHERITED/GFS/EC BLEND WITH A NOD MORE
TOWARD THE EC OUT THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY. USED A BLEND OF THE HPC
GUIDANCE AFTER THAT POINT AS IT PROVIDED A GOOD MIDDLE GROUND
SOLUTION TO THE DIFFERENCES SEEN FARTHER OUT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS FAIR TO GOOD THROUGH SATURDAY THEN POOR FARTHER OUT.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM AKST
     TUESDAY FOR AKZ023-024-026.
         WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM AKST TUESDAY FOR AKZ021-025.
         WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT FOR AKZ020-
     022.
         WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM AKST TUESDAY FOR AKZ018-019.
         WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM AKST THIS EVENING FOR AKZ017.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ011>013.
         STORM WARNING FOR PKZ012.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ011-013-021-022-031-032-041-042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ033-034-036-043-051-052.

&&

MM/EAL