Storm Warning 32, NWS Juneau, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAJK 230040 AAA
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
440 PM AKDT THU OCT 22 2009 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-231400-
440 PM AKDT THU OCT 22 2009 
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A STORM FORCE LOW IN THE SW GULF OF AK IS TRACKING NW TOWARD
KODIAK. A STRONG WEATHER FRONT IS MOVING N THROUGH THE GULF AND
ALONG THE PANHANDLE TONIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL WEAKEN EARLY FRI.

$$

PKZ041-231400-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 PM AKDT THU OCT 22 2009 

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 19 FT SUBSIDING TO
17 FT LATE. RAIN.
.FRI...SW WIND 35 KT BECOMING S 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 16
FT. SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. SW SWELL. 
.SAT...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SW SWELL. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.TUE...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 29 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-231400-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
400 PM AKDT THU OCT 22 2009 

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 20 FT SUBSIDING TO
18 FT LATE. RAIN.
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 15
FT. SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. SW SWELL. 
.SAT...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. SW SWELL. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE...S GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 30 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-231400-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
400 PM AKDT THU OCT 22 2009 

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 50 KT BECOMING SW 35 KT LATE. SEAS 21 FT
SUBSIDING TO 18 FT LATE. RAIN.
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT BECOMING S 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 16
FT. SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. SW SWELL. 
.SAT...SE GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 19 FT. SW SWELL. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 29 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-231400-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 PM AKDT THU OCT 22 2009 

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 50 KT BECOMING S 40 KT LATE. SEAS 22 FT
SUBSIDING TO 19 FT LATE. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
16 FT. SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT. SW SWELL. 
.SAT...SE GALE TO 45 KT. GUSTS TO 60 KT OUT OF INTERIOR BAYS
AND PASSES. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SE GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT. SW SWELL. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-231400-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 PM AKDT THU OCT 22 2009 

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 35 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 17
FT. SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT. SW SWELL. 
.SAT...E GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SE GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE...E GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 

$$

000 
FZAK52 PAJK 231131
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKDT FRI OCT 23 2009 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-240100-
400 AM AKDT FRI OCT 23 2009 
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE PANHANDLE FRI. THE RIDGE
WILL SLOWLY DRIFT E INTO CANADA THROUGH SAT MORNING AS A STRONG
980MB LOW LIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL GULF SAT.  

$$

PKZ041-240100-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 AM AKDT FRI OCT 23 2009 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SW SWELL. SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SW SWELL. SHOWERS IN THE
EVENING. 
.SAT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 18 FT.
RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT. W SWELL. RAIN.
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-240100-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
400 AM AKDT FRI OCT 23 2009 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SW SWELL. SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SW SWELL. SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING. 
.SAT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 18 FT.
RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-240100-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
400 AM AKDT FRI OCT 23 2009 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SW SWELL. SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 17 FT. SW SWELL. SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING. 
.SAT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 18 FT.
RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...S GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-240100-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 AM AKDT FRI OCT 23 2009 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT. S SWELL. SHOWERS. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 18 FT. SW SWELL. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING. SHOWERS.
.SAT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 17 FT.
RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-240100-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 AM AKDT FRI OCT 23 2009 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT. S SWELL. SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 19 FT. SW SWELL. SHOWERS.
.SAT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 18 FT.
RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
144 PM AKDT THU OCT 22 2009

.SHORT TERM...STRONG CYCLOGENETIC LOW ABT 300 NM S OF PAMD IS
DOWN TO AT LEAST 968 MB AT THIS TIME AND HAS ALREADY INCREASED
THE WINDS IN THE ERN GLFALSK TO 35 KT AND HAS GENERATED A HIGH
WIND EVENT FOR PAHY. THIS SYSTEM IS STRONGER WIND EVENT THAN THE
MODELS HAVE DEPICTED, ALBEIT THE HIGHEST SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ONLY
5 TO 10 KT HIGHER THAN WHAT THE MODELS HAVE BEEN DEPICTING.

 THERMAL WIND OBSERVATIONS RETRIEVED FROM BIORKA RADAR DATA
DEPICTED AN INCREASE OF AVAILABLE ENERGY OVER THE MODELS BY A
FACTOR OF 1.2 TO 1.3 OVER THE MODELS. COORDINATION WITH THE
ANCHORAGE OFFICE REACHED AGREEMENT ON INCREASING WINDS FOR OUR
COMMON AREA TO VALUES HIGHER THAN ANY OF THE MODELS. NOTE THE
INCREASED WINDS IN THE ZONE FORECASTS, AND THAT THE NEW MARINES
ARE RAISING THE STORM FORCE EXTENT TO MORE OF THE CWFAEG ZONES.

 POST FROPA CHG TO CONVECTIVE CELLS WILL ABRUPT AND DEEP CELLS
SHOULD DVLP SGFNT OUTFLOW AND POSSIBLE SLEET. CELLS WILL EASILY
BE OPEN FOR OUTER COAST ANYTIME AFTER ABOUT 12Z.

&&

.LONG TERM...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PASSING
ACROSS THE FORECAST DOMAIN. THEN THE MODELS START DIVERGING EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH A WEAK RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA AND
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING DOWN ACROSS THE WESTERN ALASKA.
THE 12Z RUN GFS SHOWS A FAIR CONSISTENCY FROM THE PREVIOUS RUN
WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA
AND BECOMES A LITTLE MORE RELIABLE IN LINE ALONG WITH THE HPC
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIODS. THE ECMWF DOES NOT MAKE A
GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND THE 00Z
RUN MAKES THE ECMWF AS AN OUTLIER FOR THE NEXT WEEK TIME FRAME.
PREFERRED TO GO WITH THE GFS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY FOLLOWED BY THE
BLEND OF THE GFS AND HPC GUIDANCE THROUGH THE END OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. THIS BLENDING WILL MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ESPECIALLY FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME WITH WETTER AND HIGHER WINDS
SCENARIO.

 AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL AFFECT THE EARLY PORTIONS
OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS THE TROUGH DRIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE EASTERN GULF AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA. GALE FORCE LOW ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE VERY ROUGH SEAS AND
HIGHER WINDS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE AND OUTSIDE WATERS THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. AS A WEAK RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE GULF...THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SHEAR APART OVER THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE ON
SUNDAY KEEPING HIGHER POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS WHILE LOWERING
POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE NEXT STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MARCHING ACROSS THE GULF
WILL PUSH A STRONG FRONT AGAIN OVER THE FORECAST DOMAIN LATE
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. A COLD CORE WITH 850MB
TEMPERATURE OF -6 TO -8 DEGREES IN CELSIUS WILL REMAIN OVER THE
YAKUTAT AREA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. CANNOT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT A CHANCE OF SNOW FOR YAKUTAT ON MONDAY NIGHT.
OTHERWISE...VERY ROUGH SEAS AND GALE WILL RETURN TO THE OFFSHORE
AND OUTSIDE WATERS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. INNER CHANNELS WITH
OCEAN ENTRANCES WILL LIKELY TO SEE GALE AND ROUGH SEAS AS WELL.

 BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE WESTERN ALASKA AND PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY TO BRING THE PANHANDLE A
COLD AIR MASS UNDER INCREASING OFFSHORE FLOW FROM THE CONTINENT ON
THURSDAY AND BEYOND TOWARDS THE HALLOWEEN. TRICK-OR-TREAT GOERS
WILL NEED TO WEAR EXTRA LAYERS.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM AKDT THIS EVENING FOR AKZ024-026-029.
         HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 PM AKDT THIS EVENING FOR AKZ027.
         WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM AKDT FRIDAY FOR
     AKZ025.
         WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM AKDT FRIDAY FOR AKZ017-022.
         WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM AKDT THIS EVENING FOR AKZ023-028.
         WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM AKDT FRIDAY FOR AKZ021.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ036-043-051-052.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012-013-021-022-033>035-041-042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-031-032.

&&

JBT/AHN