Storm Warning 15, NWS Juneau, AK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
224 PM AKDT WED MAR 18 2009

.SHORT TERM...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK LOW JUST OFF
THE COAST NEAR SITKA WITH AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL ZONES. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE NORTH INTO THE NORTHERN ZONES THIS EVENING BRING SNOW TO THE
NORTHERN ZONES. SNOW SHOWERS WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES. THE LOW WILL MOVE NORTHWEST INTO
THE CENTRAL GULF TONIGHT AND ANOTHER FRONTAL BAND WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE PANHANDLE THU MORNING.

PRECIP TYPE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALL SNOW AS COLD AIR REMAINS
ENTRENCHED OVER THE PANHANDLE. LOOKING FOR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE PANHANDLE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT WITH LONE
EXCEPTION BEING ALONG THE FRONTAL BAND WERE SNOW WILL FALL AT A
STEADIER RATE. LOOKING FOR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES
TONIGHT WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS NEAR STRONGER SHOWERS. EXPECT
SAME TREND THU AS SECOND FRONTAL BAND MOVES ACROSS THE PANHANDLE
THROUGH THE MORNING.

WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO BELOW SCA LEVELS LATER THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS. BEGINNING EARLY THU
MORNING...WINDS WILL INCREASE TO SCA LEVELS ACROSS THE W-E INNER
CHANNELS AHEAD OF THE SECOND FRONTAL BAND. WINDS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN AT SCA LEVELS INTO THE AFTERNOON THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH.

&&

.LONG TERM...MORNING MODEL RUNS IN FAIR AGREEMENT INTO THE WEEKEND
ON THE MAIN PATTERN OF THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
GULF OF ALASKA. WILL SEE A COUPLE OF LOWS MOVE OVER THE SOUTHERN
GULF AND ROTATE NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AREA. NEXT
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE FRIDAY. THE
LOW WILL THEN MOVE WESTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS THE NEXT LOW ROTATES ABOUT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND INTO
THE GULF EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SECOND ONE IS SUGGESTING THAT IT
WILL BE A LITTLE FURTHER WEST AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW RETROGRADES
MORE TO THE WESTERN GULF.

BETWEEN THE SYSTEMS BANDS OF SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO
SPREAD ONSHORE SOUTHERN SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND LIFT NORTHWARD AND
DIMINISHING. THINKING GENERALLY JUST CHANCE SHOWERS OVER THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE AREAS.

EXTENDED RANGE PERIODS... I DID SOME ADJUSTMENTS TOWARDS THE
HPCGUIDANCE. THIS DID SHIFT SOME OF THE WEATHER SIGNIFICANTLY IN
THE LATER PERIOD. MODELS DO CONTINUE TO HAVE PROBLEMS AT THAT
RANGE SO WILL SEE HOW THAT WILL CHANGE AS THE TIME GETS CLOSER.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011>013-021-022-033>036-041>043.

&&

MAM/BEZENEK