Storm Warning 1, NWS Juneau, AK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
601 AM AKST SUN JAN 4 2009

.SHORT TERM... MAP ANALYSIS: HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE
MAINLAND ALASKA AND NORTHWEST CANADIAN ARCTIC AREA. AN ELONGATED
LOW OVER THE GULF HAS ONE LOW SOUTH OF KODIAK ABOUT 250 NM WHILE
A DEVELOPING LOW IS ABOUT 54/140 THIS MORNING WHILE THE FRONT IS
BEGINNING TO APPROACH THE COAST OF PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND.

 FORECAST REASONING: PROBLEM OF THE DAY IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THROUGH TONIGHT. RAIN
SNOW LINE MEANDERING ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA AND WILL
PROBABLY CREATE SOME HAVOC WITH SNOW AMOUNTS AS WELL FOR THE
WARNING ONGOING. ALSO A GOOD PUSH OF WIND HAS MOVED INTO THE AREA
AS WELL. EXPECT THE WIND THROUGH NOON OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION
AND SNOW AND/OR RAIN TAPERING OFF AS WELL. OVER THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN AREAS PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE
DAY AS WELL. STRONG WINDS NORTHERLY WINDS AND OUTFLOW OVER THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE PICKING UP THROUGH THE DAYTIME PERIODS AND
SHOULD ALSO FALL OFF THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING TIME
FRAMES.

 A FAIR 100-120 KT JET OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF IS MOVING THE LEAD
LOW QUICKLY TO THE EAST WHILE THE MAIN PARENT CENTER HANGS BACK
FURTHER WEST. SHOULD SEE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVE THE SOUTHERN
HALF THE PANHANDLE BY AFTERNOON BUT THE LOW WILL A LITTLE SLOWER.
 VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR (SURFACE TEMPERATURE THIS MORNING AS -58F
AT EAGLE, AK) REMAINS OVER ALASKAN INTERIOR AND YUKON TERRITORY
INTO TONIGHT. WIND CHILLS OVER THE WHITE PASS AREA WILL CONTINUE
TO BE IN THE MINUS 30 TO 40 RANGE THROUGH TONIGHT.

 PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LASTING A LITTLE LONGER OVER THE MISTY
FJORDS AREA (ZONE 29) SO HAVE EXTENDED THE WARNING THERE THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. SNOW OVER THE REST OF THE AREA WILL DIMINISH BUT EXPECT
TO SEE SCATTERED AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW/SHOWERS PERSIST THROUGH
TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...THE SNOWFALL EVENT DISCUSSED ABOVE WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY AN ARCTIC AIRMASS FROM YUKON TRRTY.  THE CONFIDENCE
HAS BECOME GOOD THAT TEMPERATURES NEAR ZERO F WILL SPREAD S TO
REACH GUSTAVUS AND JUNEAU TUESDAY NIGHT. THE ARCTIC AIRMASS
WILL MODIFY AND WEAKEN AS IT EXTENDS FARTHER SOUTH THROUGH
THE WEEK.

A 500H LOW OVER ANCHORAGE AT THIS TIME IS TRACKING EAST.  THIS
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM FOR THE
SURFACE LOW, DISCUSSED IN THE SHORT RANGE SECTION ABOVE, TO
TRACK EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE TONIGHT.  THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL ALSO HELP GENERATE WEAK LOWS THAT WILL TRACK
ESE APPROXIMATELY ALONG A LINE FROM MIDDLETON TO SITKA MON.
THESE WEAKER LOWS WILL BE MOVING ALONG A WEAK ARCTIC FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT IS BEING MAINTAINED IN THE GENERAL VICINITY OF
THE LINE FROM MIDDLETON TO SITKA.  THE ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE REPLENISHED DESPITE MARITIME MODIFICATION.

THE ARCTIC OUTFLOW OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL RESULT
IN THE RELATIVELY WARM WATER STEAMING WATER VAPOR INTO THE
ARCTIC AMS.  THE RESULT IS A FAMILY OF WEAK LOWS THAT TRACK
ESE AND SPREAD LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND WEAK PRECIP RATES TO THE
EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA.

THE LOW ALOFT WILL MOVE E ALONG THE B.C. AND YUKON TRRTY BORDER
MON AND MON NIGHT, AND CONTINUING E THEREAFTER.  THIS TRACK WILL
ALLOW THE DEEPER MORE INTENSE ARCTIC OUTBREAK THAT WILL RESULT
IN THE COLDER TEMPERATURES BY MIDWEEK, AND SEND TO TRACK OF SE
MOVING WEAK LOWS TO THE SRN PNHDL AND PERIODICALLY TO DIXON
ENTRANCE.

AS USUAL, WE HAVE LOWER CONFIDENCE THE FARTHER OUT THE FORECAST
GOES.  THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS CONTINUE TO DISPLAY SOLUTIONS
THAT ARE DIFFICULT TO RECONCILE.THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION
CENTER HAS STATISTICAL GUIDANCE THAT IS BEING APPLIED TO THE
FORECAST PACKAGE FOR THU ONWARD.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM AKST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AKZ024-
     026-028.
         WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON AKST TODAY FOR AKZ027-028.
         WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AKST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     AKZ019-021-025.
         WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AKST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AKZ022.
         WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM AKST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     AKZ020.
         WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM AKST THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR AKZ019-020.
         WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT FOR AKZ029.
         WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AKST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AKZ018.
         WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM AKST MONDAY FOR AKZ018.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ012.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ011>013-022-036.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ021-031>035-041>043-051-052.

&&

BEZENEK/JBT

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