Small Craft Advisory 710, NWS Juneau, AK

Issued

Nov 19, 2009, 11:45 AM AKST (20:45 UTC)

Expired

Nov 19, 2009, 4:00 PM AKST

In force

4 hr

Issued by

NWS Juneau, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAJK 192050 AAA
CWFAJK

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1145 AM AKST THU NOV 19 2009 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA INSIDE WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO SKAGWAY

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ098-200100-
400 AM AKST THU NOV 19 2009 
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
A 984 MB LOW OVER PRINCE RUPERT ISLAND WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
NORTHEAST AND WEAKEN. A WEAK LOW 300 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE
QUEEN CHARLOTTES WILL TRACK NORTH TO A LOCATION WEST OF THE
DIXON ENTRANCE BY FRIDAY MORNING.   

$$

PKZ011-200100-
GLACIER BAY-
1145 AM AKST THU NOV 19 2009 

UPDATED

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW SHOWERS LATE. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ012-200100-
NORTHERN LYNN CANAL-
1145 AM AKST THU NOV 19 2009 

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW SHOWERS LATE. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ013-200100-
SOUTHERN LYNN CANAL-
400 AM AKST THU NOV 19 2009 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
6 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW SHOWERS AND RAIN SHOWERS
LATE. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ021-200100-
ICY STRAIT-
400 AM AKST THU NOV 19 2009 

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS LATE. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ022-200100-
CROSS SOUND-
1145 AM AKST THU NOV 19 2009 

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT....

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS LATE. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$

PKZ031-200100-
STEPHENS PASSAGE-
1145 AM AKST THU NOV 19 2009 

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT LATE. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE EVENING. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES.
SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ032-200100-
NORTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
400 AM AKST THU NOV 19 2009 

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
EVENING...THEN RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS LATE. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ033-200100-
SOUTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
400 AM AKST THU NOV 19 2009 

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 5 FT.
RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ034-200100-
FREDERICK SOUND-
1145 AM AKST THU NOV 19 2009 

UPDATED

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES.
SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ035-200100-
SUMNER STRAIT-
1145 AM AKST THU NOV 19 2009 

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW.
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ036-200100-
CLARENCE STRAIT-
1145 AM AKST THU NOV 19 2009 

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

NWS Juneau, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this small craft advisory went out at Nov 19, 6:18 AM AKST, 5 hours 27 minutes earlier.

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
618 AM AKST THU NOV 19 2009

.SHORT TERM...SURFACE LOW OVER QUEEN CHARLOTTES LAST EVENING HAS
TRACKED INLAND OVER PRINCE RUPERT ISLAND AND VERY QUICKLY SHEARED
APART. LIKEWISE WITH ASSOCIATED BANDED SHOWER STRUCTURE AND THE
ONLY PRECIP EARLY THIS MORNING IS LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN
ZONES. ELSEWHERE...A VERY DISORGANIZED LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION
OVER THE EASTERN GULF IS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS
MORNING. CONVECTIVE BLOW UP OVER THE QUEEN CHARLOTTES MAPS WELL
TO AN AREA OF SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY. THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY FOR
HECATE STRAIT BUT BELIEVE THIS WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE DIXON
ENTRANCE TO HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY MENTION OF THEM FOR THE
SOUTHERN ZONES THIS MORNING. CLOSED LOW IN THE CENTRAL GULF
FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEAST TODAY. A SURFACE TROUGH NEAR 50N/138W
THIS MORNING FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHEAST TODAY. THESE TWO
INTERACT WITH BROAD INVERTED TROUGH ALONG THE OUTER COAST THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM TO CONTINUE SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH TONIGHT FOR
MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT YAKUTAT AND THE FAR NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS
WHICH SHOULD REMAIN DRY. FORECASTING TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION IN
POTENTIALLY HEAVY SHOWER ACTIVITY IS THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE
IN THE SHORT TERM. HAVE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ZONE 29 SET
TO EXPIRE EARLY THIS MORNING. HAVE ANOTHER IN PLACE FOR ZONE
21 FOR TONIGHT. AM EXPECTING SHOWER ACTIVITY TO BE HEAVIEST AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH NOT A LOT OF ACCUMULATION BEFORE THEN. ALSO HAVE
SOME SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL AFTER MIDNIGHT IN FOR GUSTAVUS...ELFIN
COVE...AND JUNEAU WITH SNOW TOTALS RANGING FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES.

 NOT A LOT OF WIND IN THE MARINE FORECAST CONSIDERING THE TIME OF
YEAR. DO HAVE A DYING GALE IN THE FORECAST FOR NORTHERN LYNN
CANAL. ELSEWHERE...MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS AT TIMES FOR
THE NORTH-SOUTH INNER CHANNELS EXCEPT FOR CHATHAM STRAIT. DYING
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS IN THE COASTAL MARINE ZONES SOUTH OF CAPE
EDGECUMBE AS WELL THIS MORNING AS THE REMNANTS OF THE LOW
CONTINUE INLAND OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA. HAVE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SMALL CRAFT WINDS FOR COASTAL MARINE ZONE 43 TONIGHT DUE TO
OUTFLOW WINDS FROM CROSS SOUND.

 DEVELOPING LOW WEST OF OREGON CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL
SOUTH OF THE PANHANDLE AND TRACK INLAND OVER VANCOUVER THURSDAY
NIGHT. CURRENTLY MODELS ALL IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS TRACK BUT
POSSIBILITY EXISTS THAT THE LOW MAY INTERACT MORE STRONGLY WITH
THE INVERTED TROUGH SETTING UP ALONG THE OUTER COAST TODAY...IN
WHICH CASE THE TRACK FOR THIS LOW COULD SHIFT FARTHER TO THE
WEST. ALTHOUGH THERE IS  NOT AN ABUNDANCE OF REALLY COLD LOW
LEVEL AIR OVER THE PANHANDLE RIGHT NOW...A MORE WESTERLY TRACK
FOR THIS LOW COULD CREATE SIGNIFICANTLY MORE SNOW THAN IS
CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST. WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY.

.LONG TERM...UPPER FLOW WILL FLATTEN SOMEWHAT OVER THE NPAC BY
SAT...THEN AMPLIFY AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LONGWAVE TROF AND
RIDGE AXES FURTHER W THAN THEY ARE NOW. THIS WILL MEAN GENERALLY
WARMER WEATHER FOR THE AREA ESPECIALLY MON ONWARD AS A DEEPER
LAYER SW FLOW DEVELOPS AND COLD AIR REMAINS OVER THE BERING SEA
AND WRN AK. MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE...AND
EVEN WERE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE SMALLER SCALE...WITH THE UKMET
AND ECMWF NEARLY THE SAME ON SMALLER SCALE FEATURES WHILE GFS
DIFFERED A BIT. ENDED UP USING THE UKMET FOR FRI THRU SAT...THEN
MADE NO CHANGE TO PRES FIELD FOR SAT NIGHT ONWARD. HOWEVER...DID
END UP MAKING SOME TWEAKS FURTHER OUT DUE TO INCREASED CONFIDENCE
OF A WETTER AND WARMER PATTERN DEVELOPING.

FOR FRI INTO SAT...LOW OVER SE GULF AND INVERTED TROF OVER THE
PANHANDLE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN WITH SUPPORTING UPPER SHORTWAVE
TROF SHIFTING NE AND INLAND. PRECIP SHOULD DIMINISH FRI INTO FRI
NIGHT ESPECIALLY OVER THE N...BUT THE S WILL KEEP A GOOD CHANCE OF
PRECIP AS SFC LOW WILL BE JUST OFFSHORE. NEXT FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE SRN AREA SAT...AND BRING MORE PRECIP WITH IT TO MAINLY
THE SRN AREA. WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS THERE FOR SAT. WILL KEEP
CHANCE OR LESS POPS FOR THE N AS REMAINS OF SE GULF LOW LIFT NWD
IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT.

FOR SAT NIGHT ON OUT...FIRST IN A SERIES OF LOWS WILL TRACK NE
INTO THE CENTRAL GULF LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON. THIS LOW WILL BRING
MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP TO THE AREA THEN...ALONG WITH BEGINNING OF
WARMING TREND. NRN AREAS WILL PROBABLY START OUT AS SNOW SUN NIGHT
INTO MON MORNING...WITH ALL BUT THE FAR N LIKELY CHANGING TO RAIN
MON AFTERNOON. NEXT MAJOR LOW SHOULD TRACK INTO THE GULF TUE NIGHT
INTO WED...WITH A SLIGHTLY FURTHER W TRACK LIKELY AS THE LONGWAVE
TROF/RIDGE AXES REDEVELOP FURTHER W. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE
ALL RAIN...ALTHOUGH THE FAR N COULD SEE SOME SNOW EARLY ON. BOTH
SYSTEMS LOOK STRONG ENOUGH FOR POTENTIAL ADVY LEVEL WINDS OVER THE
AREA.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM AKST
     FRIDAY FOR AKZ021.
         WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM AKST THIS MORNING FOR AKZ029.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-013-031-035-036-041>043.

&&

FRITSCH/RWT

Small Craft Advisories in Alaska, 2009Every small craft advisory in 2009

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.