Small Craft Advisory 21, NWS Juneau, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAJK 082104 AAA
CWFAJK

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1205 PM AKST THU JAN 8 2009 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA INSIDE WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO SKAGWAY

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ098-090100-
1205 PM AKST THU JAN 8 2009 
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST IN THE YUKON THROUGH THU.  A STRONG
LOW WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF THIS AFTERNOON AND SEND A
STRONG WEATHER FRONT THROUGH THE PANHANDLE TONIGHT.   

$$

PKZ011-090100-
GLACIER BAY-
1205 PM AKST THU JAN 8 2009 

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...N WIND INCREASING TO 40 KT LATE. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW.
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW.
.SAT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ012-090100-
NORTHERN LYNN CANAL-
1205 PM AKST THU JAN 8 2009 

UPDATED

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 40 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT LATE. SEAS 9 FT.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW.
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW.
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ013-090100-
SOUTHERN LYNN CANAL-
1205 PM AKST THU JAN 8 2009 

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND INCREASING TO 40 KT LATE. SEAS 8 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW.
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW.
.SAT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. SNOW.
.SUN...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ021-090100-
ICY STRAIT-
1205 PM AKST THU JAN 8 2009 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW.
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW.
.SAT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ022-090100-
CROSS SOUND-
1205 PM AKST THU JAN 8 2009 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW.
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW WITH RAIN. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$

PKZ031-090100-
STEPHENS PASSAGE-
1205 PM AKST THU JAN 8 2009 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT OUT OF
INTERIOR PASSES. SEAS BUILDING TO 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW.
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES. SEAS
5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW.
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ032-090100-
NORTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
1205 PM AKST THU JAN 8 2009 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW.
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SAT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. SNOW.
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ033-090100-
SOUTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
1205 PM AKST THU JAN 8 2009 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4
FT...EXCEPT 6 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 4 FT
BUILDING TO 6 FT. SEAS 8 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. SNOW.
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT...EXCEPT 11 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT...EXCEPT 12 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. 
.SAT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS...EXCEPT 9 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. SNOW.
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ034-090100-
FREDERICK SOUND-
1205 PM AKST THU JAN 8 2009 

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT LATE. GUSTS TO 50 KT
OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW.
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ035-090100-
SUMNER STRAIT-
1205 PM AKST THU JAN 8 2009 

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW.
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT...EXCEPT 8 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT...EXCEPT 8 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. 
.SAT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS...EXCEPT 7 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. SNOW AND RAIN.
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ036-090100-
CLARENCE STRAIT-
1205 PM AKST THU JAN 8 2009 

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT LATE. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW
CHANGING TO RAIN LATE. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT...EXCEPT 9 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. SNOW.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT...EXCEPT 7 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT...EXCEPT 7 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. SNOW AND RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
129 PM AKST WED JAN 7 2009

.SHORT TERM...COLD DAY ACROSS THE PANHANDLE TODAY. TEMPS RANGE
FROM BELOW ZERO IN THE NORTH TO THE 20S IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES.
THE COLD SPOT TODAY IS SKAGWAY WHICH IS SITTING AT MINUS 8 AT
NOON. TEMPS TODAY WILL NOT WARM UP MUCH THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL
AGAIN FALL TONIGHT AS THE ARCTIC AIR REMAINS ENTRENCHED. THE COLD
AIR IN COMBINATION WITH THE WARM WATER OF THE INNER CHANNELS IS
CREATING LOW CLOUD COVER AROUND CROSS SOUND/ICY STRAIT AND AROUND
THE PETERSBURG AREA AND IN SOME CASES CAUSING LIGHT SNOW
FLURRIES.

 HELPING TO KEEP THE COLD AIR IN PLACE IS A 1024 MB HIGH THAT IS
CENTERED IN THE YUKON AND IS CAUSING A HIGH PRESSURE GRADIENT
ALONG THE COAST RANGES. STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS OUT OF INNER
PASSAGES ARE CONTINUING TO BLOW PROMPTING WIND ADVISORIES AND
VARIOUS GALE AND STORM WARNINGS FOR THE INNER CHANNELS. THE HIGH
WIND WITH COLD TEMPS IS ALSO CAUSING THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY IN SOME OF THE NORTHERN CHANNELS TODAY INTO
TONIGHT AS WELL AS DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS ALONG THE
KLONDIKE AND HAINES HIGHWAYS.

 FOR TONIGHT THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO HAVE INCREASING CLOUDS AS WE
BEGIN TO SEE THE EFFECTS OF THE NEXT SYSTEM COMING FROM THE WEST.
THE AREAS THAT ARE CURRENTLY SEEING OVERCAST SKIES WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO SEE OVERCAST SKIES AND MAYBE A FEW FLURRIES. THE MORE
STEADY PRECIP FROM THE APPROACHING SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO
START UNTIL AROUND MIDDAY TOMORROW AS SNOW FROM OVERRUNNING THE
ARCTIC AIR WILL START TO DEVELOP. DO NOT EXPECT ANY LARGE
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS UNTIL TOMORROW NIGHT AS THE MAIN BATCH OF PRECIP
WILL STILL BE OFFSHORE TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

 MODEL OF CHOICE TODAY WAS THE GEM MODEL AS IT DID THE BEST WITH
MODELING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE COAST RANGES FOR TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW. THOUGHT THAT THE OTHER MODELS WERE WEAK ON THE
GRADIENTS. MODELS ARE STILL SOMEWHAT AT ODDS ON TRACK AND TIMING
OF THE FRIDAY STORM BUT ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT THAN THEY
WERE EARLIER IN THE WEEK. THOUGHT GFS MODEL A LITTLE TOO FAST ON
MOVING THE CANADIAN HIGH TO THE EAST AND BRINGING THE LOW IN THE
GULF IN. GRIDS WERE UPDATED WITH A BLEND OF GEM/NAM/CURRENT GRIDS
WITH MORE WEIGHT ON THE GEM.

&&

.LONG TERM...FORECAST CONCERN REMAIN THE 994 MB LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS THE AK GULF INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONT APPROACHING THE PANHANDLE COAST INTO
THURSDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE YUKON REMAINS IN PLACE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND KEEPING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE N PANHANDLE.
TRIPLE POINT LOCATION IS AN UNCERTAINTY WITH THE CURRENT
FORECAST LOCATION NEAR DIXON ENTRANCE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING. SNOW AMOUNTS WERE INCREASED FROM PREVIOUS GRIDS BUT
BACKED OFF THE MODELS DOUBLING AMOUNTS OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES.
TIMING, DURATION AND TRANSITION FROM SNOW TO RAIN ARE ALSO BIG
UNCERTAINTIES FOR THIS EVENT. ARCTIC AIR OVER THE REGION IS MOVED
OUT MUCH QUICKER WITH MANY MODELS. THE CANADIAN DID KEEP THE COLDER
AIR IN PLACE A BIT LONGER. SLOWED DOWN THE TIMING OVER THE SOUTHERN
ZONES AND SPED UP TIMING OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES FOR A THURSDAY
EVENING START TIME. ADDED ZONES 21, 22 AND 24 TO THE WS.A. WITH
THE LEADING OVERRUNNING EVENT AND COLD AIR IN PLACE SHOULD SEE
ENOUGH SNOW ACCUMULATION BEFORE TRANSITION TO RAIN FOR THE N
COAST AND S REGION. ZONE 17 IS CURRENTLY NOT LISTED AT THE TACK OF
THE LOW LOOKS TO BE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO LIMIT PRECIP IN PAYA. ZONE
27 IS STILL QUESTIONABLE FOR WARNING CRITERIA WITH ADVISORY LEVEL
SNOW MORE LIKELY BUT STILL WAITING TO SEE THE TIMING OF THE TEMP
INCREASE. FOR THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE EXPECTING THE SECONDARY WARP
TO BRING THE HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS FRIDAY.

MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEKEND WITH
THE GFS TRACKING A 972 MB SHORTWAVE INTO THE AK INTERIOR WITH EC
AND HPC GUIDANCE KEEPING A WEAKER LOW IN THE CENTRAL GULF. MODELS
ARE IN AGREEMENT OF A BLOCKING PATTERN FORMING WITH RIDGE BUILDING
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH STRONG LOWS OVER THE TIP OF THE
ALEUTIANS AND EASTERN CANADA. USED A BLEND OF THE EC WITH
INHERITED GRIDS OUT TO DAY 4 THEN A BLEND OF INHERITED GRIDS, EC
AND HPC GUIDANCE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. FELT THE GFS
BROUGHT THE THURS-FRI LOW IN TOO QUICKLY.

WITH MODELS MOVING THE ARCTIC AIR OUT TOO QUICKLY AND DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS BELOW
AVERAGE FOR THE START OF THE LONG TERM. AS MODELS DIVERGE
SIGNIFICANTLY FORECAST CONFIDENCE THEN DROPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM AKST THURSDAY FOR AKZ020-025-026.
         WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE
     THURSDAY NIGHT FOR AKZ026>028.
         WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY
     MORNING FOR AKZ022-024-029.
         WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR AKZ018>021-025.
         WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM AKST THURSDAY FOR
     AKZ018-019.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ011>013.
         STORM WARNING FOR PKZ012-013.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ011-021-022-031>036.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ041>043-051-052.

&&

EAL/PRB