Gale Warning 79, NWS Juneau, AK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
135 PM AKST THU JAN 29 2009

.SHORT TERM...ON SHORE FLOW CONTINUES TO BRING PLENTY OF
MOISTURE TO THE PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON AS SEEN ON THE RADAR AND
THE SATELLITE. PRECIP IS FALLING AS RAIN FOR MOST OF THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND THE COASTAL ZONES. A MIX OF PRECIP IS
FALLING IN THE JUNEAU GUSTAVUS HOONAH HAINES AND SKAGWAY ZONES.
WIND IS ALSO STARTING TO BE MORE OF A FACTOR ACROSS THE AREA.
WINDS ARE ALREADY GUSTING TO AROUND 30 TO 35 MPH IN SKAGWAY AND
PORT ALEXANDER HAS GUST TO AROUND 30 MPH. AS SUCH HAVE STARTED
THE WIND ADVISORIES FOR ZONES 18 23 AND 27 AT NOON TODAY.

 IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE...A RIDGE AXIS REMAINS IN PLACE OVER
HEAD. THIS RIDGE WILL GET PUSHED TO THE EAST TONIGHT AS A TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT.

 FOR THE SYSTEM MOVING IN TONIGHT...MOST MODELS AGREE ON A LOW
DEVELOPING IN THE EASTERN GULF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AND
MOVING UP IN THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE AND INTO THE YUKON. FAVORED
THE GFS SOLUTION AS IT INITIALIZED THE BEST AND SEEMED TO PROVIDE
THE BEST SOLUTION. GFS IS STILL A LITTLE LACKING ON THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT AROUND SKAGWAY WHERE THE GRADIENT IS ALREADY RATHER
HIGH. PRECIP WILL REMAIN MOSTLY LIQUID ACROSS THE PANHANDLE
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH POSSIBLY SOME RAIN MIXING WITH SNOW
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE AND THE HYDER AREA ESPECIALLY EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL STILL BE AN ISSUE WITH THIS SYSTEM.
DROPPED THE WINDS DOWN A LITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS SHIFT BUT STILL
KEPT THE VARIOUS WIND ADVISORIES THAT WERE ISSUED WITH ONLY A FEW
CHANGES TO TIMES. WIND AND PRECIP SHOULD DIMINISH TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO CANADA...EXCEPT FOR SKAGWAY
WHERE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BLOW.

.LONG TERM...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE
PATTERN THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES ON
INDIVIDUAL SYSTEMS HOWEVER. BASED ON CONSENSUS AND ENSEMBLES...THE
12Z GFS40 LOOKED LIKE A GOOD SOLUTION FOR FRI NIGHT INTO SUN. FOR
SUN NIGHT ON OUT...DECIDED TO STAY WITH THE CURRENT PRES/WIND
FIELDS BUT DID MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE OTHER GRIDS TO
SIMPLIFY THEM TO SOME DEGREE GIVEN SOME OF THE MODEL DIFFERENCES
FURTHER OUT.

FOR FRI NIGHT AND EARLY SAT...A COOL MOIST ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP
AREA IN A SHOWERY REGIME. IT SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR THE SHOWERS
TO BE MAINLY SNOW...EXCEPT THE FAR S AREA WILL LIKELY SEE MIXED
PRECIP. NEXT LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GULF SAT NIGHT THEN TO
THE NE GULF SUN...AND SPREAD STEADIER PRECIP IN. ANY SNOW SHOULD BE
LIMITED TO THE NRN HALF OF THE AREA BY EARLY SUN AS WARMER AIR
MOVES IN AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT. ALL BUT THE FAR N
SHOULD BE RAIN BY LATE SUN. LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH
E ACROSS THE AREA SUN NIGHT.

THEREAFTER...MUCH LESS SURE OF THE INDIVIDUAL SYSTEMS. IT DOES
LOOK LIKE A LOW PRES WAVE WILL FORM ON THE FRONT AND MOVE NNE
TOWARD THE AREA MON...BUT NOT SURE HOW FAR NW THE LOW WILL GET.
THIS WILL DEPEND ON HOW PHASED NRN AND SRN STREAM TROFS WILL BE AS
THIS LOW DEVELOPS. FURTHER OUT...TOWARD MIDWEEK...MODELS BRING IN
ANOTHER SYSTEM FROM THE SW WITH SOME TIMING AND TRACK DIFFERENCES
NOTED. ALL IN ALL...IT LOOKS LIKE AN ACTIVE PATTERN BUT CONFIDENCE
IS LOW IN THE SPECIFIC SYSTEMS.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM AKST FRIDAY FOR
     AKZ026.
         WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM AKST FRIDAY FOR AKZ023-027.
         WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM AKST FRIDAY FOR
     AKZ021-024.
         WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM AKST FRIDAY FOR
     AKZ020-025.
         WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 12 PM AKST FRIDAY FOR
     AKZ022.
         WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM AKST FRIDAY FOR
     AKZ028.
         WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM AKST FRIDAY FOR
     AKZ029.
         WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM AKST FRIDAY FOR
     AKZ019.
         WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AKST FRIDAY FOR AKZ018.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012-033-035-036-041>043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-013-021-022-031-032-034-051-052.

EAL/RWT