Gale Warning 29, NWS Juneau, AK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
214 PM AKST TUE JAN 6 2009

.SHORT TERM...AT 2100 UTC SATELLITE AND RADAR SHOWS CLEARING
SKIES OVER NORTHERN SOUTHEAST ALASKA WITH DIMINISHING SNOW
SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL SOUTHEAST ALASKA. SNOW SHOWERS WERE STILL
SCATTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. A WEAK UPPER LOW IN THE
EASTERN GULF JUST WEST OF SITKA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD
AND DISSIPATE EARLY TONIGHT WHICH WILL HELP TO SHUT OFF THE
REMAINING SNOW SHOWERS IN THE EXTREME SOUTH.

 THE BREAK IN PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS WILL LOWER AS
INCREASING NORTHEASTERLY WINDS BRINGS MORE ARCTIC AIR DOWN FROM
CANADA. THE WINDS ARE ENHANCED BY THE STRENGTHENING OF HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE YUKON AND LOWERING PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AS THE
UPPER LOW MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD. THE NORTHERN INTERIOR WILL
EXPERIENCE THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES AND STRONGEST WINDS PRODUCING
WIND CHILLS OF 30 TO 40 BELOW ZERO IN THE MOST EXPOSED AREAS.
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS IN THE REMAINING CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
INTERIOR ZONES ARE PRIMARILY CONFINED TO INTERIOR PASSES AND
NORTHEASTERLY EXPOSURES.

.LONG TERM...MAJOR FORECASTING CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM IS THE
SYSTEM THAT IS MOVING IN FROM THE GULF STARTING THURSDAY NIGHT.
MODELS ARE STILL AT ODDS ON THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THE SYSTEM.
I HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARD THE EC SOLUTION TO THE SYSTEM OF LEAVING
THE MAIN LOW CENTER BACK NEAR THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND BRINGING A
TRIPLE POINT LOW INTO THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
ARCTIC AIR THAT HAS BEEN HANGING AROUND THE AREA FOR THE PAST FEW
WEEKS WILL STILL BE IN PLACE RESULTING IN OVERRUNNING SNOW
DEVELOPING THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES. PRECIP SHOULD
START OUT FROZEN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BUT SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM WILL START TO CAUSE THE ARCTIC AIR TO RETREAT. AS A
RESULT THE PRECIP WILL START MIXING WITH RAIN AS EARLY AS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE AND REACH AS FAR NORTH AS
JUNEAU AND GUSTAVUS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SNOW AMOUNTS ARE
LOOKING TO BE IN THE REALM OF UPPER ADVISORY TO WARNING CRITERIA
FOR THE PANHANDLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

BEHIND THE EARLY WEEKEND SYSTEM ARE WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
ANOTHER SHOT AT PRECIP COME SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS RATHER POOR. FAVORED THE EC SOLUTION AS IT DOES NOT
BOMB OUT THE LOW IN THE WESTERN GULF. GRIDS WERE UPDATED WITH AN
BLEND OF THE NAM/EC EARLY IN THE LONG TERM AND THEN BLENDED WITH
THE EC IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 PM AKST WEDNESDAY FOR
     AKZ020-025-026.
         WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 PM AKST
     WEDNESDAY FOR AKZ019.
         WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM AKST WEDNESDAY FOR AKZ018.
         WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM AKST WEDNESDAY FOR AKZ017.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ021-022-031-032-051-053.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ011>013.
         STORM WARNING FOR PKZ012-013.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ011-021-022-036.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ031>035-041>043-051-052.

CFD/EAL