Gale Warning 289, NWS Juneau, AK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
225 PM AKDT MON OCT 19 2009

.SHORT TERM...THE REMAINING RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE TAPERING OFF
THIS EVENING. THE FOLLOWING CHANGES ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CIRCULATION OF THE LARGE SCALE LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY CENTERED ABT
900 NM S OF PAKN. FOR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THE CHANGE WILL BE DUE TO
THE RIDGE ALOFT THAT IS BEING PUMPED UP AHEAD OF THE LARGE SCALE
LOW. FOR TUESDAY THE CHANGES WILL BE THE APPROACH OF A STRONG
OCCLUSION WITH GALE FORCE WINDS ENTERING THE GLFALSK FM THE S.
THE CHANGES TO THE FCST PKG ARE SMALL. THE CONFIDENCE
IN THE HIGH LARGELY DUE TO GOOD AGREEMENT AND RUN
TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE MODELS. THE GUIDANCE IS AN ECLECTIC
MIX OF MODELS AS THE DIFFERENCES AMONG THEM ARE SMALL.

LAST OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE ASSOCD WITH 500H TROUGH MOVG ONSHORE
THE PNHDL ATTM, AND OVR A PAGY TO PAKT LINE ABT 02Z. THE
CONVECTIVE CELLS SHOW UP NICELY ON THE IR SPCLY IN THE ERN GLFALSK
AND THE PASI AREA WEBCAMS SHOW DISTINCT SC BCMG AND CU. HWVR IN
THE INNER CHANNELS THE BNDRY LAYER EXPRESSED THE SHOWERS WITH
RAPID CHANGES IN MARINE STRATIFORM FEATURES.

ABT 06Z THE TROUGH ALOFT WILL BE MOVG E BYD THE COAST MTN RANGE.
PTCHY FOG SHOULD DVLP OVERNIGHT BUT THE INCREASING E OUTFLOW
ASSOCD WITH THE APPROACHING OCFNT WILL MIX OUT THE F PRIOR TO
SUNRISE IN MOST LOCATIONS, ALBEIT THE IFR AND MVFR CIGS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE ONSET OF RAIN. THE ONSET OF STEADY RAIN WILL
BE IN A S TO N SEQUENCE WITH THE SRN PNHDL UNDERWAY ABT 18Z AND
SPREADING N TO FREDERICK SOUND ABOUT 00Z.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRONTAL BAND OF THE OF LEAD STORM FOR THE NEXT WEEK
CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHWARD TUESDAY NIGHT OVER THE GULF AND THE
PANHANDLE. THE EAST WEST CHANNELS WILL BE BLOWING BETTER THAN THE
NORTH SOUTH ONES DUE TO LOW POSITION AND THE FRONT. WINDY
CONDITIONS ALONG COASTAL AREAS OF THE SOUTHWEST PANHANDLE WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING INTO THE NIGHT TIME HOURS. WILL CARRY
WIND ADVISORY FOR THE OUTER COASTAL AREA OF PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND
TO MIDNIGHT. ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR KETCHIKAN AREA AND
SOUTHERN BARANOF ISLAND BUT WILL NOT ISSUE THEM AT THIS TIME.

THE SURFACE LOW WILL DO A SWING THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF BEFORE
CURVING BACK TOWARDS KODIAK ISLAND LATE TUESDAY. THE WRAPPED
FRONTAL BAND AROUND THIS WILL INCREASE WINDS FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS AREA AGAIN BUT DO NOT THINK IT WILL SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT
COASTAL AREAS OF PRINCE OF WALES AND BARANOF ISLANDS.

THE NEXT DOUBLED LOW FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC WILL MOVE NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF ABOUT 144 WEST THURSDAY...SOUTH GALE FORCE
WINDS TO POSSIBLY MINIMUM STORM FORCE LIFTING INTO THE SOUTHWEST
PANHANDLE. AS A HEAD UP ... THINK THAT SYSTEM WILL BE LIKELY TO
GENERATE MORE WIND ADVISORIES ALONG THE OUTER COAST UP TO
YAKUTAT...IF NOT BE A CANDIDATE FOR HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE GUSTY
WINDS FOR LATE WEDNESDAY AND EARLY THURSDAY. EXPECT RESIDUAL
SHOWERS TO PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY ONCE THE FRONT DOES MOVE
THROUGH.

LATER TIME FRAME SHOWS YET ANOTHER LOW MOVING THROUGH THE GULF
WITH A WHAT LOOKS TO BE A FAIRLY STRONG FRONTAL BAND EXPECTED
SUNDAY AND CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS THROUGH THURSDAY WERE NUDGED TOWARDS THE GFS.
LITTLE IF ANY CHANGES WERE DONE TO THE LATER PERIODS AND ANY THERE
WERE I NUDGED CLOSER TO THE HPC GUIDANCE. CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY
HIGH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO MIDNIGHT AKDT TUESDAY FOR AKZ027.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ041>043-051-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011>013-021-022-031>036.

&&

JBT/BEZENEK