Winter Storm Warning 5, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
559 AM AKST FRI JAN 16 2009

.DISCUSSION...THE HIGH ENERGY INFLUX OF SUBTROPIC AIR TO THE
ALASKA MAINLAND WILL REACH ITS PEAK TODAY. FOLLOWING ALL OF THIS,
QUIETER WEATHER WILL RETURN TO NORTHERN ALASKA.

THE NAM AND GFS MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH SIMILAR
FORECASTS. THE MOST IMPORTANT FEATURE OF THE FORECAST IS THE
RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NOW ABOUT 300 MILES
SOUTH OF COLD BAY. THE MODELS FORECAST THIS SYSTEM TO REACH
KUSKOKWIM BAY AS A 953 MB CENTER THIS AFTERNOON, AND THEN TO BEGIN
WEAKENING AS IT PASSES OVER THE SEWARD PENINSULA TONIGHT AND IS
ABOUT 200 MILES NORTH OF BARROW SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THIS WEATHER SYSTEM, AND THE STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE EAST OF
IT, CONTINUE TO BRING A GOOD DEAL OF HIGH IMPACT WEATHER TO THE
REALM. TO SUMMARIZE: STRONG WINDS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
EASTERN INTERIOR, SNOW AND RAIN OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR, HEAVY
SNOW IN THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND HEAVY SNOW/BLOWING SNOW OVER THE
ENTIRE WEST COAST. AS THE STORM NOW HEADED TOWARD KUSKOKWIM BAY
WEAKENS, ALL OF THIS WILL RAPIDLY END TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING.

THE TEMPERATURE CONTRAST ACROSS THE ARCTIC FRONT NOW EXTENDING
FROM KAKTOVIK DOWN TO KUSKOKWIM BAY HAS BEEN QUITE STRONG...30S
ABOVE TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT -10 TO +20S TO THE WEST. MOST OF
THE CONTRAST IS OVER A SHORT DISTANCE. THIS, AND THE CONSISTENT
FORECASTS OF THE MODELS, IS WHY THE WESTERN MAINLAND FORECASTS ARE
SO STORMY.

THE NAM MODEL 12Z RUN FORECASTS A COLD AIR LOW TO MOVE FROM THE
EASTERN ALEUTIANS UP TO KUSKOKWIM BAY ON SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD
BE GOOD FOR SOME BRISK WIND ADVISORIES AND SNOW SHOWERS, BUT
NOTHING OF HIGH ENERGY. THE 06Z GSM MODEL RUN DID NOT PICK UP THIS
FEATURE.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DIVERGE CONSIDERABLY STARTING AT THE END
OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE GENERAL PICTURE IS ONE OF RELATIVELY
QUIET WEATHER AND NEAR NORMAL OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEK IN THE REALM.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ223-AKZ223.

WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ207-AKZ208-AKZ209-AKZ210-AKZ210-
AKZ211-AKZ211-AKZ212-AKZ212-AKZ213-AKZ213-AKZ214-AKZ214-AKZ215-
AKZ215-AKZ216-AKZ216-AKZ217-AKZ217.

FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR AKZ220-AKZ221.

HIGH WIND WARNING FOR AKZ220-AKZ220-AKZ225-AKZ225-AKZ226-AKZ226.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ200-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ220-
PKZ225-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

TF JAN 09