Winter Storm Warning 25, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
510 PM AKST TUE NOV 10 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A RAPIDLY DEEPENING STORM DEVELOPING NEAR ST LAWRENCE ISLAND NOW
WILL MOVE TO TELLER AS A 967 MB LOW BY 3AM WED AND TO NEAR
KOTZEBUE AS A 962 MB LOW BY 3PM WED AND THEN MOVE INLAND TO AMBLER
AS A 978 MB LOW BY THU.

THIS STORM IS EXPECTED TO BECOME VERY STRONG TONIGHT AND PRODUCE
WESTERLY WINDS OF 60 MPH ACROSS NORTON SOUND BY EARLY WEDNESDAY
THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. THESE WINDS WILL PUSH LARGE
AMOUNTS OF WATER INTO NORTON SOUND AND GENERATE A VERY HIGH STORM
SURGE OVER THE EASTERN NORTON SOUND COAST. THIS STORM WILL CAUSE
NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN CHUKCHI SEA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY BRINGING A THREAT OF COASTAL FLOODING TO THAT AREA AS
WELL.

A WARM FRONT FROM THE LOW SE WILL OCCLUDE TONIGHT AND EARLY WED.
THERE WILL BE BRIEF RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN SOUTH OF THIS FRONT
IN ZONES 213 211 212 214 AND 215 TONIGHT AND 216 AND 227 WED.
A VERY STRONG COLD FRONT SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW WILL MOVE TO NOME TO
BETHEL BY 3AM WED AND OCCLUDE THE WARM FRONT...MOVING TO KOTZEBUE
TO NOME TO POINT HOPE TO DENALI BY 3PM WED AND TO GALENA TO KOYUK
TO KIVALINA TO BARTER ISLAND BY 3AM THU. THE POISON TAIL PORTION
OF THE FRONT THAT WRAPS AROUND INTO THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE
LOW WILL HAVE THE STORM FORCE WINDS WITH IT, AND MAY EVEN SPREAD
GALE FORCE WINDS INTO THE WESTERN INTERIOR.

THERE WILL BE BRIEF RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT
IN ZONES 213 211 212 214 AND 215 TONIGHT AND 216 AND 227 WED. IT
WILL END WITH THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE. THERE WILL ALSO BE HEAVY
SNOW AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT AND WITH THE COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT. THE
STORM WILL CAUSE HEAVY SNOW AND BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FROM THE WEST
COAST TO THE CENTRAL INTERIOR THROUGH THU AM. 6-10 INCHES OF SNOW
IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS IN ZONE 216.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS INITIALIZE WELL AND SHOW VERY SIMILAR SOLUTIONS LENDING TO
A HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST EVEN THOUGH IT IS AN EXTREME SOLUTION.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...
THIS COULD BE THE WORST COASTAL FLOODING IN EASTERN NORTON
SOUND IN MANY YEARS. WITH STORM SURGE WILL RIDE WED TO 10 FT
WED PM-THU. THE SOUTHERN SEWARD PENINSULA AND THE YUKON DELTA
WILL HAVE SURGES OF 6 TO 8 FT. ZONE 213 WILL HAVE ONLY 3 FT SURGE
BUT SEE SIGNIFICANT WAVES DRIVEN ONSHORE ALONG NW COASTS. PARTIAL
ICE COVERAGE IN NORTON SOUNDS MEANS THAT ICE COULD BE PUSHED
ASHORE WHICH CAN CAUSE EXTREME DAMAGE TO BUILDINGS. THIS COULD BE
A KILLER STORM IN EASTERN NORTON SOUND.

THIS STORM WILL CAUSE NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN CHUKCHI SEA
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY BRINGING A THREAT OF COASTAL
FLOODING TO THAT AREA AS WELL.

&&

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FOR AKZ211-AKZ212-AKZ213-AKZ214.

BLIZZARD WATCH FOR AKZ201-AKZ202.

COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FOR AKZ207-AKZ210.

WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ207-AKZ208-AKZ209-AKZ210-AKZ211-
AKZ212-AKZ213-AKZ214-AKZ215-AKZ216-AKZ217-AKZ227.

WINTER STORM WATCH FOR AKZ218-AKZ219-AKZ221.

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-
PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.

STORM WARNING FOR PKZ200-PKZ210.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ230.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ235.
&&

JB NOV 09