Winter Storm Warning 18, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
247 AM AKST SAT MAR 7 2009

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS DIFFER SOMEWHAT IN MOVEMENT OF PRECIPITATION ONTO WEST
COAST WITH THE NEXT LOW.THE OVERALL INITIAL PATTERN IS CLOSE
ENOUGH THOUGH. THE NAM AND THE GFS RIDE CLOSE TOGETHER IN TERMS OF
STRENGTH OF LOW AND POSITION ALTHOUGH THE NAM CONTINUES TO CARRY
THE LOW MORE NORTHWARD. BY 48 HOURS THE NAM HAS THE LOW STARTING
TO FILL FAIRLY RAPIDLY. GIVEN THE SUPPORT ALOFT AND SIGNIFICANT
COLD AIR BEHIND THE LOW...FEEL THAT THE GFS SOLUTION IS THE BEST
ONE AT THIS TIME.

MODELS BRING SIGNIFICANT WINDS...STORM FORCE WINDS BACK TO SAINT
LAWRENCE ISLAND AGAIN STARTING TONIGHT. HOW STRONG THE WINDS ARE
WILL DEPEND UP ON HOW STRONG THE RIDGE IS TO THE EAST THAT WILL
COVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE STATE.

THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPACT THE YUKON DELTA BY
EARLY AFTERNOON AND THE WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP THERE AS
WELL BY EARLY EVENING. THIS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS OVER THE YUKON DELTA BY THIS TIME.

CURRENT MODELS ARE NOT QUITE AS LIBERAL WITH THE MOISTURE AS
PREVIOUS VERSIONS BUT NONETHELESS...NEARLY A SURE BET THAT IT WILL
GET NASTY ON THE SOUTHERN WEST COAST LATER TODAY.

CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTH THROUGH TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FOR AKZ207-AKZ209-AKZ210.

WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ211-AKZ212-AKZ213-AKZ214-AKZ215.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ220-AKZ222-AKZ223-AKZ224-AKZ225-
AKZ226.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215.

STORM WARNING FOR PKZ210.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ220-PKZ225.
&&

CF MAR 09