Wind Chill Advisory 5, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
451 AM AKST SAT JAN 3 2009

.DISCUSSION...
STILL NO SIGNS THAT THE CURRENT COLD WEATHER OUTBREAK ACROSS MUCH
OF NORTHERN AK...AND ESPECIALLY THE INTERIOR WILL ABATE ANYTIME
SOON. THE MODELS ARE ALL SINGING THE SAME COLD TUNE THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MODEL SPREAD INCREASES IN ABOUT A WEEK WITH
SOME MODELS INDICATING THAT TEMPS MAY RETURN CLOSER TO SEASONABLE
AVERAGE...BUT UNTIL THERE IS A MORE CLEAR SIGN IT LOOKS LIKE COLD
IS THE WAY TO GO FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

INTERIOR...THE PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND REMAINS QUITE BLOCKY WITH
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE BERING SEA INTO EASTERN SIBERIA AND
A LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM WESTERN CANADA INTO EASTERN
ALASKA. 1000-500 MB THICKNESS VALUES ARE DOWN AROUND 490 DAM AND
850 MB TEMPS -25C OR COLDER ACROSS JUST ABOUT ALL OF THE INTERIOR.
THE 850 MB TEMP OFF THE 00Z PAFA SOUNDING WAS -28C. BOTH THE 500
MB HEIGHTS AND 850 MB TEMPS ARE IN THE 10TH PERCENTILE...BUT STILL
HAVE A LONG WAY TO GO TO REACH RECORD LEVELS. ASIDE FROM SOME
CIRRUS A CLEAR SKY IS EXPECTED WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED
RADIATIONAL COOLING. 50 BELOW OR LOWER EXPECTED IN THE NORMALLY
COLDER VALLEYS AROUND FAIRBANKS WITH 60S BELOW ON THE YUKON FLATS.
THE ONLY CONCERNS ASIDE FROM THE LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOR
AREAS OF DENSE ICE FOG IN THE POPULATED VALLEYS AND FOR WIND
CHILLS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WILL CONTINUE THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FOR THE MIDDLE TANANA VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE MAYBE
A BIT OF IMPROVEMENT IN THE VISIBILITY FOR A TIME EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT IT SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED. THERE CONTINUES TO BE
ENOUGH WIND EXPECTED ACROSS THE SUMMITS TO MAINTAIN THE ONGOING
WIND CHILL ADVISORIES IN ZONES 218 AND 221 AS WELL AS THROUGH THE
PASSES OF THE AK RANGE.

NORTH SLOPE...MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FOR LOW WIND CHILLS ALONG THE
BEAUFORT SEA COAST. A 1000 MB LOW VCNTY OF BANKS ISLAND WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN TO A SURFACE TROUGH WEST OF BANKS ISLAND ON
SUNDAY. A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND A 1033 HIGH
OFF THE NW COAST OF ALASKA WILL PRODUCE 20 TO 30 MPH WIND FROM
DEADHORSE EAST INTO TONIGHT...WITH THE STRONGEST WIND ALONG THE
EASTERN BEAUFORT SEA COAST. WIND CHILLS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 50 TO
60 BELOW RANGE. WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON TEMPS AS THEY ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE TODAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
AND AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW. IF THEY DO NOT RISE FAST ENOUGH THE WIND
CHILLS COULD FOR A TIME REACH WARNING LEVELS. THE OTHER CONCERN
WILL BE FOR SOME AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW TODAY INTO TONIGHT. DO NOT
EXPECT ENOUGH BLOWING SNOW AND FALLING SNOW FOR A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY.

WEST COAST...RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS A BIT SOUTH OF POINT HOPE TODAY AS A
STORM SYSTEM PASSES BY SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS...BUT IT DOES NOT LOOK
LIKE THERE WILL BE ENOUGH WIND FOR ANY MARINE HEADLINES OR
WIDESPREAD WIND CHILL CONCERNS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE
UNSEASONABLY COLD...WITH THE COLDEST TEMPS INLAND. THERE IS ENOUGH
WIND IN THE LOWER YUKON VALLEY FOR A WIND CHILL ADVISORY TODAY AND
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE YUKON DELTA AS WELL AS ALONG THE
CHUKCHI SEA COAST.

WILL ISSUE ANOTHER PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT TO ADDRESS THE
EXPECTED CONDITIONS IN THE MID-RANGE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR AKZ203-AKZ204-AKZ206-AKZ215-AKZ218-
AKZ221-AKZ225-AKZ226.

DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR AKZ222.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

CB JAN 09