Wind Chill Advisory 48, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1248 PM AKDT SAT MAR 14 2009

.DISCUSSION...
UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER TO CONTINUE FOR NORTHERN ALASKA INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEK. A VERY COLD UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE MACKENZIE
DELTA WILL RAPIDLY DIG SOUTHWARD TO THE GULF OF ALASKA BY MONDAY.
THIS WILL USHER IN SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR ALOFT OF THE WINTER
INTO THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 850 MB
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO THE -30C OR COLDER RANGE WHICH WILL BE
RIVALING RECORDS FOR MID-MARCH. MEANWHILE OVER THE BERING SEA...A
HIGH AMPLITUDE BLOCKING RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
AND PERSIST INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP ANY REAL ACTIVE
WEATHER FROM MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA.

A MODERATE TO STRONG SURFACE GRADIENT ACROSS THE STATE WILL RESULT
IN SIGNIFICANT NORTHEAST WINDS AND KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE WELL
MIXED...SO WIDESPREAD BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES ARE NOT LIKELY.
IT WILL NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION THOUGH FOR SOME SHELTERED
VALLEY LOCATIONS TO SEE READINGS DIP BELOW -50F THE NEXT FEW
NIGHTS. WIND CHILLS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE BIGGEST FORECAST
CONCERN WITH MUCH OF THE INTERIOR REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA AND
SOME LOCATIONS EXPERIENCING WARNING LEVEL WIND CHILLS BELOW -60F.
WINDS WILL INCREASE SOME SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY AS A 1045
MB HIGH MOVES INTO THE CHUKCHI SEA AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF
DEEPENS A BIT. THIS WILL ALSO COINCIDE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE
COLDEST AIR OVER THE STATE.

PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL MAINLY BE LIMITED TO
THE FAR SOUTHEAST INTERIOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS SOME MOISTURE
WRAPS NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA. OTHERWISE THE CURRENT
PATTERN WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE. THE MODELS DO TRY TO DIVE IMPULSES OF ENERGY
AND SOME MOISTURE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE COLD UPPER TROUGH. THE
AMOUNT AND EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLE FLURRIES WILL BE
DIFFICULT TO FORECAST. THE BIGGEST IMPACT THIS WILL HAVE IS A
SLIGHT MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES.

LOOKING INTO NEXT WEEK...MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH
KEEPING A LONG-WAVE TROUGH OVER MAINLAND ALASKA AND RIDGING OVER
THE BERING. THUS...COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A LACK OF
ANY MAJOR WEATHER SYSTEMS MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR AKZ205-AKZ207-AKZ208-AKZ213-AKZ216-
AKZ217-AKZ218-AKZ219-AKZ220-AKZ221-AKZ222-AKZ225-AKZ226.

WIND CHILL WARNING FOR AKZ201-AKZ206-AKZ218.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225.
&&

EWP MAR 09