Wind Advisory 44, NWS Fairbanks, AK

000 
WWAK72 PAFG 222022
NPWWCZ

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1122 AM AKST TUE DEC 22 2009

AKZ227-222130-
/X.CAN.PAFG.WI.Y.0044.000000T0000Z-091223T0100Z/
UPPER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY-
INCLUDING...MCGRATH...NIKOLAI...TAKOTNA...FAREWELL LAKE
1122 AM AKST TUE DEC 22 2009

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FAIRBANKS HAS CANCELLED THE WIND
ADVISORY. 


$$

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
435 PM AKST MON DEC 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A VERY STRONG 955 MB LOW JUST SOUTH OF ST MATTHEW ISLAND WILL
MOVE TO 200 NM WEST OF ST MATTHEW ISLAND AS A 956 MB LOW BY 3MA
TUE...AND THEN CONTINUE WEST AND WEAKENING. AN ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED
FRONT FROM THE LOW TO THE YUKON DELTA WILL MOVE TO NORTON SOUND BY
3AM TUE AND DISSIPATE ALONG A POINT LAY TO DELTA JUNCTION LINE BY
3PM TUE. THIS WILL CAUSE ANOTHER 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW ALONG THE
WEST COAST OF ALASKA TONIGHT ALONG WITH PERIODS OF RAIN FROM THE
SEWARD PENINSULA SOUTH. THIS RAIN WILL FREEZE ON THE COLD SOAKED
GROUND AND FORM ICE LAYERS ON THESE COLD GROUND SURFACES TONIGHT.

STRONG SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT IS CAUSING A STRONG CHINOOK AFFECT
WHICH IS KEEPING THE INTERIOR DRY. WILL SEE JUST A CHANCE OF SNOW
IN THE FAR WESTERN INTERIOR FROM THIS FEATURE.

EAST GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG MOST OF THE WEST COAST WILL OCCUR
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. THIS IS CAUSING BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
ALONG MUCH OF THE COAST. EAST BRISK WINDS AND GALE GUSTS ARE
OCCURRING IN CHANNELED AREAS IF THE INTERIOR THIS IS CAUSING LOCAL
AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. WINDS WILL DECREASE SOME TUE AS THE FRONT
WEAKENS AND THE LOW MOVES EAST. HIGH WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN THE
ALASKA RANGE PASSES UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES TUE.

EAST BRISK WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT AND SLOWLY DECREASE TUE.

AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT SOUTH OF THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO NORTON SOUND
TUE AND DISSIPATE ALONG THE WEST COAST WED. EXPECT MORE SNOW WITH
THIS OVER THE SEWARD PENINSULA.

A LOW MOVING TO THE GULF OF ALASKA COAST WED AM WILL MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN INTERIOR WED PM. THIS WILL BRING MORE EAST WINDS AND SNOW
TO THE INTERIOR WED PM.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS INITIALIZE FAIRLY WELL AND SHOW SIMILAR PATTERN WITH SLIGHT
DIFFERENCES IN STRAIGHT AND SPEED OF SYSTEMS. PREFER THE GFS ON
THE LOW CURRENTLY IN THE BERING AS IT IS ABOUT 5 MB DEEPER AT THE
SURFACE WHICH IS CLOSER TO THE ACTUAL CURRENT LOW DEPTH.

THE GFS AND ECMF ARE ALSO WEAKER AND FASTER THAN THE NAM BRINGING
A LOW INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA COAST WED. PREFER THE FASTER GFS ON
THIS GIVEN THE FAST SOUTH FLOW ALOFT PUSHING THIS ALONG.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ226.

HIGH WIND WARNING FOR AKZ225-AKZ227.

WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ211-AKZ212-AKZ213-AKZ214-AKZ215-
AKZ216.

BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ207-AKZ209-AKZ210.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ205-AKZ208-AKZ217-AKZ219.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

JB DEC 09