Wind Advisory 37, NWS Fairbanks, AK

000 
WWAK73 PAFG 051334
NPWAFG

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
434 AM AKST SAT DEC 5 2009

AKZ225-060000-
/X.CON.PAFG.WI.Y.0037.000000T0000Z-091206T1500Z/
DENALI-
INCLUDING...HEALY...DENALI NATIONAL PARK...CARLO CREEK...
KANTISHNA
434 AM AKST SAT DEC 5 2009

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM AKST SUNDAY
THROUGH PASSES...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM AKST SUNDAY. 

WINDS WILL GUST AS HIGH AS 65 MPH THROUGH PASSES TODAY AND
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG IN HEALY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS REGION MEANS THAT WINDS OF 60 MPH ARE
OCCURRING OR EXPECTED. SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS THAT MAY BE BLOWN
AROUND BY THE WIND.

&&

$$
RT DEC 09

000 
WWAK73 PAFG 052352
NPWAFG

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
252 PM AKST SAT DEC 5 2009

AKZ225-060800-
/X.UPG.PAFG.WI.Y.0037.000000T0000Z-091206T1500Z/
/X.NEW.PAFG.HW.W.0014.091205T2352Z-091206T1500Z/
DENALI-
INCLUDING...HEALY...DENALI NATIONAL PARK...CARLO CREEK...
KANTISHNA
252 PM AKST SAT DEC 5 2009

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM AKST SUNDAY THROUGH
PASSES...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FAIRBANKS HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM AKST SUNDAY. THE WIND
ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

WINDS WILL GUST AS HIGH AS 65 MPH THROUGH PASSES TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE WINDS IN HEALY WILL BE GUSTING TO 40 MPH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS REGION MEANS THAT WINDS OF 60 MPH ARE
OCCURRING OR EXPECTED. SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS THAT MAY BE BLOWN
AROUND BY THE WIND.

&&

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS HAZARDOUS HIGH WINDS ARE EXPECTED. TAKE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PREVENT PROPERTY DAMAGE. 

&&

$$

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
417 PM AKST FRI DEC 4 2009

.DISCUSSION...
TWO STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS ARE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT
AROUND 30 KNOTS INTO THE SOUTH BERING SEA. THE FIRST IS ABOUT 200
MILES NORTHWEST OF ADAK. THE SECOND IS ABOUT 300 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF ADAK. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE OF THE FIRST LOW IS 970 MILLIBARS
AND THAT OF THE SECOND LOW IS 962 MILLIBARS. WITH STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE OF 1042 TO 1046 MILLIBARS OVER THE EASTERN MAINLAND AND
SOUTHEAST ALASKA THIS IS A FINE RECIPE FOR STRONG WINDS...RANGING
FROM 35 TO 60 KNOTS...IN A LONG FETCH FROM THE WEST GULF OF
ALASKA INTO THE EAST BERING SEA.

BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE DEVELOPING ON MUCH OF THE BERING SEA COAST
FROM THE YUKON DELTA UP TO BERING STRAIT. AS TEMPERATURES WARM
OVER THE YUKON DELTA...RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BE MIXED WITH THE SNOW
IN THE AFTER NOON. GIVEN THE LONG AND STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY INFLOW
OF MARITIME AIR...THE LARGEST SNOWFALLS WILL BE ON THE SOUTHEAST
SLOPES OF HILLS. THE TURBULENCE IN THE STRONG SOUTHEAST FLOW HAS
THOROUGHLY MIXED THE BOUNDARY LAYER...PREVENTING STRONG MARITIME
FLOW ALOFT OVER A DEEP FROZEN BOUNDARY LAYER. FOR THIS REASON...NO
FREEZING RAIN HAS OCCURRED. THE TRANSITION FROM SNOW TO RAIN IN
THE SOUTHEAST BERING SEA HAS BEEN SHARP AND FAST.

AFTERNOON POLAR ORBITING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEAR SKY OVER
MOST OF THE ARCTIC AND BROOKS RANGE...AND THE NORTHEAST INTERIOR.
ASIDE FROM A LITTLE FOG AT A FEW LOCATIONS...THE ARCTIC HAS
CLEARED OUT. THE REST OF THE REALM LIES UNDER DEEP...SOLID
OVERCAST.

THE TWO STRONG LOWS ARE FORECAST TO CONSOLIDATE OVER THE SOUTH
BERING SEA NEAR 177 DEGREES EAST ON SATURDAY. AS THIS HAPPENS THE
WINDS OVER THE WEST HALF OF THE REALM WILL COME DOWN SOME LATE
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

THIS WILL NOT BE THE END OF DYNAMIC WEATHER. A STRENGTHENING LOW
NEAR 42 NORTH 175 DEGREES EAST IS FORECAST TO BE APPROACHING THE
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS ON SUNDAY. THE PATH OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WEST
OF THAT OF ITS PREDECESSORS AND THE FLOW OVER THE WEST HALF OF
NORTHERN ALASKA WILL BE MORE OFFSHORE THAN IT IS NOW...SO
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL PROBABLY BE LIMITED TO THE
YUKON DELTA AND SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND.

THE GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS BOTH FORECAST THE VERY STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE AREA ALOFT TO BUILD UP OVER THE EASTERN MAINLAND THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. FOLLOWING THIS...BOTH MODELS FORECAST AN OUTBREAK OF
COLD ARCTIC FLOW INTO NORTHWEST CANADA AND THE ALASKA MAINLAND
STARTING THURSDAY. THE EUROPEAN MODEL FORECASTS A CONSIDERABLY
COLDER AND MORE EXTENSIVE ARCTIC AIRSTREAM OVER ALASKA THAN DOES
THE GFS MODEL. BY NEXT SATURDAY THE MODEL FORECASTS RAPIDLY
DIVERGE. THE GFS FORECASTS RETURN FLOW STARTING SUNDAY WHILE THE
EUROPEAN MODEL FORECASTS A VERY COLD LOW ALOFT TO SETTLE OVER THE
CENTRAL YUKON TERRITORY.

THE ONLY SIMILARITY IN THE FORECASTS IS THE GREAT STRENGTH OF THE
GFS LOW ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA AND THE EUROPEAN MODEL
LOW ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL YUKON. THE CENTRAL HEIGHT VALUE IS NEAR
4750 METERS...AN ASTOUNDING DECREASE OF ABOUT 1000 METERS FROM THE
FORECAST HEIGHTS OVER SOUTHEAST INTERIOR THIS WEEKEND TO MONDAY
THE 14TH. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL OUTPUT STATISTICS SEEM OUT OF
TOUCH WITH THESE FORECASTS...THE MOS TEMPERATURE FORECASTS FOR
LATE NEXT WEEK ARE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WHEREAS THE CIRCULATION
FORECAST BY THE COMPUTER MODELS SUGGESTS PLENTY OF 30 TO 50 BELOW
WEATHER. IF THE FORECASTS OF CIRCULATION COME CLOSE TO TRUE...THE
MODEL OUTPUT STATISTICS FORECASTS FOR LATE NEXT WEEK WILL BE 40
TO 60 DEGREES OFF.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ211-AKZ213-AKZ214.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225.
&&

TF DEC 09