Wind Advisory 26, NWS Fairbanks, AK

000 
WWAK73 PAFG 280533
NPWAFG

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
933 PM AKDT MON JUL 27 2009

AKZ225-280645-
/X.CAN.PAFG.WI.Y.0026.000000T0000Z-090728T0600Z/
DENALI-
INCLUDING...HEALY...DENALI NATIONAL PARK...CARLO CREEK...
KANTISHNA
933 PM AKDT MON JUL 27 2009

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FAIRBANKS HAS CANCELLED THE WIND
ADVISORY. 



$$

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
453 AM AKDT MON JUL 27 2009

.DISCUSSION...
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN THIS WEEK WITH A STRONG RIDGE ALOFT FROM
BC NORTH INTO THE YUKON TERRITORY AND A COMPLEX LOW TO THE WEST OF
THE MAINLAND. DETAILS VERY WITH INDIVIDUAL WAVES THAT ROTATE AROUND
THE LOW COMPLEX...BUT THE OVERALL LONG WAVE PATTERN AS DESCRIBED
ABOVE IS LOCKED IN THROUGH FRIDAY.

INTERIOR...AS A STRONG UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD TO THE NNW
THE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO WARM ACROSS THE INTERIOR EAST OF
155W. THE 500 MB HEIGHTS AT FAIRBANKS CLIMBED OVER 200 METERS
SINCE 12Z FRIDAY...AND THE WARMER AIR NOW MAKING ITS WAY DOWN TO
THE GROUND. THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT THAT THE PEAK OF THE HEAT
WILL BE LATE IN THE WEEK...AND BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE 850 MB
TEMPS OF +18 TO 20C NEAR THE AL-CAN BORDER BY 00Z FRIDAY. THIS WILL
MAKE FOR WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 80S ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN INTERIOR WITH A FEW 90S A GOOD BET IN THE VALLEYS EAST OF
FAIRBANKS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SYSTEMS WORKING AROUND THE LOW
COMPLEX WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS AT TIMES TO THE FAR WESTERN
INTERIOR WHERE TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER TO SEASONABLE AVERAGES.
BOUTS OF STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK WITH THE
STRONGEST WIND IN PASSES AND IN NORMAL WINDY SPOTS. DOWNWIND OF
FIRES THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE ISSUES WITH SMOKE...AND SOME
AREAS WILL LIKELY GET SMOKED IN AT TIMES.

WEST COAST...WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH OUT
OF THE NORTH PAC AROUND THE UPPER LOW COMPLEX AND INTO THE EASTERN
BERING SEA AND WILL WEAKEN.  THIS WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN TO THE
SOUTHWEST ZONES AND AS FAR NORTH AS NOME THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK WITH SHOWERS TO THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE THE
COOLEST ACROSS THE Y-K DELTA AND THE LOWER YUKON VALLEY WITH A
DENSER OVERCAST AND MORE FREQUENT RAIN. LIKELY TO BE SMALL DIURNAL
RANGES IN THIS AREA AS WELL.

NORTH SLOPE...A SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS WILL SLOWLY
BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL BEAUFORT SEA THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AS
THE RIDGE BUILDS AND THE SURFACE TROUGH IN THE INTERIOR SLOWLY
LIFTS NORTH THIS WILL INCREASE THE ELY GRADIENT TO MARGINAL SMALL
CRAFTS AND WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. AS THE FLOW
TURNS MORE OFFSHORE MIDWEEK UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPS WILL SPREAD
NORTH TO MUCH OF THE ARCTIC COAST ALONG WITH A REDUCTION IN THE
LOW CLOUDS/FOG. THE ONSHORE FLOW MAY HOLD TOUGH FOR MUCH OF THE
WEEK ALONG PARTS OF THE BEAUFORT SEA COAST.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HOT AND DRY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
INTERIOR  ALL WEEK WITH BOUTS OF STRONGER WIND THAT WILL CONTINUE
TO KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT THE FOREFRONT. AS THE LOWER
LEVELS CONTINUE TO WARM THE RH RECOVERIES WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
POOR...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MORE ELEVATED TERRAIN. THE DEW POINTS
ON AVERAGE ARE ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES (F) HIGHER IN MOST OF THE
INTERIOR THIS MORNING THAN 24 HOURS AGO...AND THE MINIMUM RHS
WILL LIKELY NOT END UP BEING AS LOW THIS AFTERNOON AS THEY WERE
YESTERDAY IN MOST AREAS. NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...NO ISSUES AT THIS TIME. HIGH FREEZING LEVELS ACROSS
THE EASTERN AK RANGE THIS WEEK WILL CAUSE GLACIALLY FED STREAMS TO
RISE THIS WEEK. THE AMOUNT OF RISES THAT WILL BE EXPERIENCED ON
THE TANANA WILL DEPEND ON JUST HOW MUCH SNOW IS LEFT TO MELT OUT.
THERE HAS ALREADY BEEN A LOT OF SNOW AND ICE MELTED OUT THIS
SUMMER...BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR RISES LATE IN THE WEEK WILL
CERTAINLY BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FOR AKZ223-AKZ224.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.

&&

CB JUL 09