Wind Advisory 24, NWS Fairbanks, AK

000 
WWAK73 PAFG 012115
NPWAFG

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
115 PM AKDT MON JUN 1 2009

AKZ225-012215-
/X.CAN.PAFG.WI.Y.0024.000000T0000Z-090602T1400Z/
DENALI-
INCLUDING...HEALY...DENALI NATIONAL PARK...CARLO CREEK...
KANTISHNA
115 PM AKDT MON JUN 1 2009

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FAIRBANKS HAS CANCELLED THE WIND
ADVISORY. 


$$

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
310 AM AKDT MON JUN 1 2009

.DISCUSSION...

THROUGH 00Z FRI...CURRENT OPERATIONAL RUNS AND ENSEMBLE MEANS
FROM THE GFS/ECMWF MODELS AGREE VERY WELL ON THE FORECAST OF
THE LARGE SCALE 500 MB PATTERN OVER ALASKA. INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS FROM BOTH MODELS REMAIN TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH
96 HR/00Z FRI ALTHOUGH THERE ARE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN INDIVIDUAL
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ON THE TIMING OF LOW AMPLITUDE PERTURBATIONS
MOVING UP THE BACK SIDE OF THE LONG WAVE RIDGE. CONFIDENCE IN
THE FORECAST UPPER AIR PATTERN THROUGH 00Z FRI IS HIGH.

THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER ALASKA THROUGH 00Z
WED...WHEN HEIGHTS APPEAR TO REACH THEIR MAXIMUM VALUES. A 576
DAM 500 MB HIGH JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE WILL
BUILD TO 582 DAM BY 00Z WED. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN
ITS STRENGTH AND POSITION THROUGH 00Z FRI...THEN BEGIN TO
WEAKEN SLOWLY.

SPREADS BETWEEN GFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS BEGIN TO INCREASE
AFTER 96 HR/00Z THU WITH SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN SPREAD AFTER 120
HR/00Z FRI...INDICATING INCREASING UNCERTAINTY IN THE DETAILS OF
THE FORECAST PATTERN FOR SAT AND SUN. GFS ENSEMBLE AND ENSEMBLE
MEANS SUGGEST A RIDGE HOLDING ALONG OR JUST EAST OF THE ALCAN
BORDER AT 00Z SAT...ECMWF OPERATIONAL RUN AND ENSEMBLE MEAN
SUGGESTING SOMEWHAT LOWER HEIGHTS AND A SOMEWHAT GREATER CHANCE
OF A MAINLY SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE STATE WITH A SHORT WAVE
TRANSITING THE FORECAST AREA.

IN THE SHORTER TERM...LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVES AND MULTIPLE
SURGES OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD UP THE BACK
SIDE OF THE RIDGE...BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN OR SHOWERS OVER THE
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR THROUGH 12Z THU. THERE WILL BE
A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AT TIMES OVER THE WESTERN ARCTIC ZONES.
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR WILL REMAIN DRY UNDER A STABLE
AIRMASS.

THROUGH WED...OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF RUNS AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN
INDICATE GRADUAL WARMING OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR AS
850 MB TEMPERATURES CREEP UPWARD. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE
LIKELY IN THE PERIOD WED THROUGH FRI. AREAS NEAR THE ALCAN BORDER
WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE THE HIGHEST READINGS WITH MAX TEMPERATURES
IN THE 80 TO 85 DEGREE RANGE. TEMPERATURES FARTHER TO THE WEST
WILL NOT BE AS WARM. TEMPERATURES IN THE FAIRBANKS AREA WED
THROUGH FRI WILL LIKELY CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S.

WINDS IN MARINE AREAS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOWER HUMIDITIES CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR
IN A DRY AIR MASS AS TEMPERATURES INCREASE. FIRE WEATHER
WATCHES ARE CURRENTLY POSTED FOR ZONES 220-222-223-224-225-226.
MIN RH TODAY LIKELY TO BE 25 PERCENT OR LESS OVER THE MUCH OF
THE EASTERN INTERIOR FROM FAIRBANKS SOUTH AND EAST...A FEW SPOTS
MAY GO BELOW 15 PERCENT. LOW TO VERY LOW HUMIDITIES CONTINUING
OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. LOCAL
WIND GUSTS TO 25-45 MPH WILL CONTINUE IN ALASKA RANGE PASSES
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO PROBLEM AREAS.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR AKZ220-AKZ222-AKZ223-AKZ224-AKZ225-AKZ226.
&&

RF JUN 09