Small Craft Advisory 13, NWS Fairbanks, AK

856 
FZAK51 PAFG 182229
CWFNSB

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR ARCTIC ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
229 PM AKDT THU JUN 18 2009

ARCTIC ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ298-191300-
229 PM AKDT THU JUN 18 2009

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WELL NORTH OF THE ARCTIC COAST WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE BROOKS RANGE ALSO THROUGH TUESDAY.

$$

PKZ225-191300-
CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT-
229 PM AKDT THU JUN 18 2009

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 25 KT. FOG.
.FRI...NE WINDS 30 KT. FOG.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WINDS 30 KT. FOG.
.SAT...NE WINDS 30 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WINDS 30 KT. 
.SUN...NE WINDS 20 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WINDS 25 KT. 
.MON...NE WINDS 20 KT. 
.TUE...NE WINDS 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ230-191300-
CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN-
229 PM AKDT THU JUN 18 2009

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 30 KT. FOG.
.FRI...E WINDS 30 KT. FOG.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WINDS 30 KT. FOG.
.SAT...NE WINDS 30 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WINDS 30 KT. 
.SUN...NE WINDS 25 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.MON...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ235-191300-
POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT-
229 PM AKDT THU JUN 18 2009

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. FOG.
.FRI...E WINDS 20 KT. FOG.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WINDS 20 KT. FOG.
.SAT...NE WINDS 20 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.SUN...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.MON...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ240-191300-
CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND-
229 PM AKDT THU JUN 18 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
FOG. VSBY 1 NM OR LESS.
.FRI...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.
FOG. VSBY 1 NM OR LESS.
.FRI NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.
FOG. VSBY 1 NM OR LESS.
.SAT...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.SUN...NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.MON...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ245-191300-
FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT-
229 PM AKDT THU JUN 18 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
FOG. VSBY 1 NM OR LESS. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
FOG. VSBY 1 NM OR LESS.
.FRI NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
FOG. VSBY 1 NM OR LESS.
.SAT...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

RL/JL JUN 09

746 
FZAK51 PAFG 191055
CWFNSB

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR ARCTIC ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
255 AM AKDT FRI JUN 19 2009

ARCTIC ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ298-200200-
255 AM AKDT FRI JUN 19 2009

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE ARCTIC COAST...AND A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE BROOKS RANGE WILL BOTH REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH TUESDAY. 

$$

PKZ225-200200-
CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT-
255 AM AKDT FRI JUN 19 2009

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...NE WINDS 30 KT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 30 KT. 
.SAT...NE WINDS 30 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WINDS 30 KT. 
.SUN...NE WINDS 30 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WINDS 25 KT. 
.MON...NE WINDS 20 KT. 
.TUE...N WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ230-200200-
CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN-
255 AM AKDT FRI JUN 19 2009

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...NE WINDS 30 KT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 30 KT. 
.SAT...NE WINDS 25 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WINDS 30 KT. 
.SUN...NE WINDS 25 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WINDS 20 KT. 
.MON...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.TUE...NE WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ235-200200-
POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT-
255 AM AKDT FRI JUN 19 2009

.TODAY...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.TONIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.SAT...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.SUN...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.MON...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ240-200200-
CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND-
255 AM AKDT FRI JUN 19 2009

.TODAY...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.SAT...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.SUN...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.MON...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ245-200200-
FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT-
255 AM AKDT FRI JUN 19 2009

.TODAY...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT. VSBY 1 NM OR LESS. 
.TONIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

DR/DA JUN 09

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1121 AM AKDT WED JUN 17 2009

.DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE SHORT TERM.
THERE IS SOME DIVERGENCE IN THE MID RANGE WITH HOW THE MODELS
HANDLE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPPING INTO BRISTOL BAY...THE
MOVEMENT OF THIS LOW MAINLY AFFECTS LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE
CWA...EXPECT A CONTINUATION OF NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
CONVECTIVE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS.

ALOFT...A RIDGE NORTH OF PRUDHOE BAY WILL CONTINUE TO RETREAT TO
THE NORTHWEST THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH SOME WEAK RIDGING EXTENDING
SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL INTERIOR. A LOW THAT IS
DROPPING SOUTH...AND PASSED JUST WEST OF WRANGEL ISLAND EARLIER
THIS MORNING WILL END UP IN THE NORTHERN BERING SEA TONIGHT ALONG
OR JUST WEST OF THE DATELINE.

SURFACE...THERMAL TROUGH STRETCHING RIGHT THROUGH THE CENTRAL INTERIOR
FROM ANVIK TO FAIRBANKS TO CHICKEN WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY NORTH THIS
EVENING TO LIE FROM THE SELAWIK VALLEY TO CHICKEN THIS EVENING...
AND THEN FROM NOATAK TO CHICKEN ON THURSDAY. A SECONDARY TROUGH WILL
EXTEND NORTH FROM MCGRATH AND THEN ACROSS THE BROOKS RANGE TODAY.
CONVECTION WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG THESE MECHANISMS WITH ANOTHER
3500+ LIGHTNING STRIKES EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY IN ZONES ALONG THE
THERMAL TROUGH...ALL ZONES EXCEPT COASTAL ZONES WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF ZONE 212...MINIMAL CONVECTION EXPECTED IN ZONE 220 AND MOST OF
219 WILL BE TO STABLE...ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES SPARK SHOULD BE
FROM HUGHES SOUTH AND WEST.

ALONG THE COAST...MANY OPEN ICE LEADS ALONG THE NORTH SLOPE...EXPECT
DENSE FOG TO RETURN ONCE THE ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES AGAIN TONIGHT.
MODERATE ON-SHORE FLOW SHOULD KEEP THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE RIGHT ALONG THE COAST CAPPED...BUT MIXED JUST ENOUGH TO
ALLOW THE FOG TO LIFT INTO A LOW CEILING FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE AT +5 ABOVE BARROW
TODAY...HIGHS WOULD BE IN THE MID 60S IF ON-SHORE FLOW ADVECTING
IN THE MARINE LAYER WERE TO TURN OFF...BUT ON-SHORE FLOW EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE DO TO LOW PRESSURE PERSISTING OVER THE INTERIOR
COUPLED WITH HIGH PRESSURE HANGING ON OVER THE ARCTIC OCEAN.

WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS ALONG THE WEST COAST...EXPECT FOG TO SETTLE IN
OVERNIGHT IN LOCATIONS WITH ONSHORE FLOW. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE
EMBEDDED IN THE STRATUS TONIGHT...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN ZONES
208 209 210 AND 212 THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...CONVECTION COULD
CONTINUE WELL INTO THE NIGHT.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

FIRE WEATHER...YESTERDAY WAS THE MOST ACTIVE DAY CONVECTION-WISE
THIS YEAR WITH CLOSE TO 4000 CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES...
MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN AK RANGE AND FROM THE LOWER KUSKOKWIM
VALLEY NORTH TO THE LOWER KOYUKUK VALLEY. A FEW STRIKES MADE IT
ALL THE WAY UP TO THE WESTERN ARCTIC COASTAL PLAIN BY EVENING.

THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION TODAY WILL SHIFT A BIT FURTHER NORTH...
BUT NOT BY MUCH. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING AND WET. THE
CONVECTIVE THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT TO THE NORTH ON THURSDAY.

HYDROLOGY...WILL NEED TO CLOSELY MONITOR CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY SO IN THE AK RANGE WHERE SOME
SPOTS RECEIVED 2 INCHES OR MORE OF RAIN EARLIER IN THE WEEK.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WET AND SLOW MOVING...SO ANY SPOTS THAT GET
HIT BY QUASI-STATIONARY AND/OR MULTIPLE STORMS WOULD HAVE THE
POTENTIAL OF SMALL STREAM AND/OR FLASH FLOODING.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

KS JUN 09