Red Flag Warning 4, NWS Fairbanks, AK

000 
WWAK63 PAFG 232315
RFWAFG

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
315 PM AKDT SAT MAY 23 2009

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKDT
   TONIGHT FOR STRONG WIND FOR A PORTION OF THE NORTHERN
   INTERIOR...

AKZ220-240800-
/X.CON.PAFG.FW.W.0004.000000T0000Z-090524T0800Z/
YUKON FLATS AND SURROUNDING UPLANDS-
315 PM AKDT SAT MAY 23 2009

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKDT
TONIGHT FOR STRONG WIND...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKDT TONIGHT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DISCUSSION...GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS TODAY OF 15 TO 30 MPH WILL
BLOW WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WITH THESE
WINDS OF 15 TO 25 PERCENT WILL INCREASE TO ABOVE 30 PERCENT BY
MIDNIGHT. 

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OR WILL
OCCUR WHICH COULD LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF LARGE AND DANGEROUS
FIRES. IT IS DIRECTED TOWARD FIRE AGENCIES...AND THROUGH THEM...
TO THE PUBLIC.

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE
FIELD OF THIS RED FLAG WARNING.

&&

$$

000 
WWAK63 PAFG 240709
RFWAFG

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1109 PM AKDT SAT MAY 23 2009

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR A PORTION OF THE NORTHERN
INTERIOR...

AKZ220-240815-
/X.CAN.PAFG.FW.W.0004.000000T0000Z-090524T0800Z/
YUKON FLATS AND SURROUNDING UPLANDS-
1109 PM AKDT SAT MAY 23 2009

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FAIRBANKS HAS CANCELLED THE RED
FLAG WARNING. 

NORTHEAST WINDS WHICH GUSTED TO AROUND 30 MPH ARE NOW DIMINISHING. THE 
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE IN THE PROCESS OF RECOVERING LATE THIS EVENING 
AS TEMPERATURES SLOWLY COOL...AND THEREFORE THE RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN 
CANCELLED. 

$$

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
503 AM AKDT SAT MAY 23 2009

.DISCUSSION...
THE REX BLOCK WILL HOLD FIRM THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND WILL BEGIN
TO BREAK DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

ALOFT...A RIDGE IS PINCHING OFF EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
EASTERN BERING SEA. THIS RIDGE GRADUALLY ELONGATES OUT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE BY SUNDAY EVENING AS AN UPPER TROUGH
DIGS IN WELL NORTHWEST OF THE STATE AND A STRONG UPPER RIDGE
PINCHES OFF IN THE NORTHERN BERING SEA. A CLOSED LOW IN THE GULF
OF ALASKA WILL CONTINUE TO WOBBLE AROUND FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

SURFACE...A 1035 MB HIGH IN THE EASTERN BEAUFORT SEA GRADUALLY
DROPS SOUTHEAST TOWARD GREAT BEAR LAKE BY SUNDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
RIDGE NEAR SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND WILL EXPAND AND BUILD TO COVER
THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL BERING SEA ON SUNDAY. A SURFACE LOW IN THE
NORTHERN GULF WILL CONTINUE TO WIGGLE AROUND THROUGH THE WEEKEND
BUT WILL REMAIN VERTICALLY STACKED AND NOT MOVE A WHOLE LOT.

INTERIOR...IN BETWEEN THE HIGH TO THE NORTH AND LOW IN THE GULF
AN EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO STEER MOISTURE AND WEAK
DISTURBANCES OUT OF CANADA AND ACROSS THE INTERIOR. A THERMAL
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION TODAY AND
SUNDAY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT ANY TIME...AND STRONG
DAYTIME HEATING HELPING TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE ENOUGH FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE TO THE SOUTH OF YUKON RIVER ALONG THE WESTERN INTERIOR
ZONES.

NORTH SLOPE...THE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN MILD THROUGH THE
SUNDAY WITH AREAS OF MAINLY DIURNAL FOG. EASTERLY FLOW HAS INCREASED
ALONG THE BEAUFORT SEA COAST WITH BRISK WINDS TODAY INTO TONIGHT
ALONG THE EASTERN BEAUFORT SEA COAST.  A 990 MB LOW MOVING NORTH
INTO THE SIBERIAN SEA WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH TONIGHT
AND THEN TURN NORTHEAST TO CROSS THE DATELINE NORTH OF 80N ON
MONDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE A COLD FRONT TO ORGANIZE IN THE CHUKCHI SEA
ON SUNDAY THAT WILL PUSH INTO THE WESTERN ARCTIC COAST SUNDAY
NIGHT.  THE FRONT WILL THEN SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH AND EAST MONDAY AND
MON NIGHT TO USHER A COLDER AIR MASS INTO THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN
ARCTIC COAST WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

WEST COAST...FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ON THE SEWARD PENINSULA MAINLY DUE TO
DAYTIME HEATING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP IN PARTS OF THE YUKON VALLEY
IN THE EASTERLY FLOW AS MOISTURE AND WEAK DISTURBANCES ROTATE
THROUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS.  THE
DEVELOPING COLD FRONT IN THE CHUKCHI SEA WILL BRING SOME COOLING TO
AREAS NORTH OF THE SEWARD PENINSULA MONDAY...WHICH WILL SPREAD
SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

MID-RANGE...THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT ENOUGH AGREEMENT AT THE START
OF THE MEDIUM RANGE...BUT THEN REALLY DIVERGE MID-LATE NEXT WEEK.
THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES GENERALLY AGREE THAT THE UPPER TROUGH THAT
DIGS INTO THE CHUKCHI SEA EARLY NEXT WEEK SPLITS WITH SOME OF THE
ENERGY DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA LATE IN THE WEEK. THE
MODELS REALLY DIVERGE ACROSS MAINLAND ALASKA WITH THE RELATIVE
MEASURE OF PREDICTABILITY (RMOP) DROPPING TO WELL BELOW AVERAGE
LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS ALL MAKES FOR AN UNCERTAIN OUTCOME BY LATE
NEXT WEEK WITH WELL BELOW AVERAGE FORECASTER CONFIDENCE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS THE THERMAL TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE THIS WEEKEND ACROSS THE
INTERIOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED...MAINLY FROM 3 PM TO MIDNIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL
BE IN THE 0.50-0.75 RANGE ALONG THE THERMAL TROUGH...AND STORMS
THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY CONTAIN SOME MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION.
GUSTY WINDS AND LOWER RH WILL BE A CONCERN IN FIRE WEATHER ZONE
220 THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SPRING BREAKUP CONTINUES ON THE LOWER YUKON. A FLOOD WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUKON RIVER FROM 30 MILES BELOW MOUNTAIN
VILLAGE TO THE MOUTH OF YUKON RIVER.

A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
YUKON RIVER FROM RUSSIAN MISSION TO 30 MILES BELOW MOUNTAIN VILLAGE.

ELSEWHERE...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE ON THE NORTH SLOPE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHICH IS NOW CREATING SOME BREAKUP ISSUES.
A FLOOD ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH 6 PM AKDT TODAY FOR THE
COLVILLE RIVER AT COLVILLE.

PLEASE REFER TO THE WATCH...ADVISORY & WARNING PRODUCTS FOR MORE
SPECIFIC DETAILS.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FLOOD WARNING FOR AKZ214 & AKZ215

FLOOD ADVISORY FOR AKZ203

FLOOD WATCH FOR AKZ214

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ240-PKZ245.

&&

CB MAY 09