Red Flag Warning 1, NWS Fairbanks, AK

000 
WWAK63 PAFG 092314
RFWAFG

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
314 PM AKDT SAT MAY 9 2009

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM AKDT THIS
   EVENING FOR STRONG WIND FOR THE CENTRAL INTERIOR...

AKZ221-100300-
/X.CON.PAFG.FW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-090510T0300Z/
CENTRAL INTERIOR-
314 PM AKDT SAT MAY 9 2009

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM AKDT THIS
EVENING FOR STRONG WIND...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM AKDT THIS
EVENING. 

DISCUSSION...WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST TO 25 MPH
THIS EVENING AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE BETWEEN 20 AND 30
PERCENT UNTIL AT LEAST 7 PM. 

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OR WILL
OCCUR WHICH COULD LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF LARGE AND DANGEROUS
FIRES. IT IS DIRECTED TOWARD FIRE AGENCIES...AND THROUGH THEM...
TO THE PUBLIC.

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE
FIELD OF THIS RED FLAG WARNING.

&&

$$

AKZ222-100300-
/X.CON.PAFG.FW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-090510T0300Z/
MIDDLE TANANA VALLEY-
314 PM AKDT SAT MAY 9 2009

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM AKDT THIS
EVENING STRONG WIND...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM AKDT THIS
EVENING. 

DISCUSSION...WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST TO 25 MPH
THIS EVENING AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE BETWEEN 20 AND 30
PERCENT UNTIL AT LEAST 7 PM. 

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OR WILL
OCCUR WHICH COULD LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF LARGE AND DANGEROUS
FIRES. IT IS DIRECTED TOWARD FIRE AGENCIES...AND THROUGH THEM...
TO THE PUBLIC.

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE
FIELD OF THIS RED FLAG WARNING.

&&

$$

AKZ223-100300-
/X.CON.PAFG.FW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-090510T0300Z/
DELTANA AND TANANA FLATS-
314 PM AKDT SAT MAY 9 2009

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM AKDT THIS
EVENING FOR STRONG WIND...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM AKDT THIS
EVENING. 

DISCUSSION...WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST TO 25 MPH
THIS EVENING AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE BETWEEN 20 AND 30
PERCENT UNTIL AT LEAST 7 PM. 

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OR WILL
OCCUR WHICH COULD LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF LARGE AND DANGEROUS
FIRES. IT IS DIRECTED TOWARD FIRE AGENCIES...AND THROUGH THEM...
TO THE PUBLIC.

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE
FIELD OF THIS RED FLAG WARNING.

&&

$$

000 
WWAK63 PAFG 100257
RFWAFG

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
657 PM AKDT SAT MAY 9 2009

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 7 PM AKDT THIS EVENING FOR
STRONG WIND FOR A PORTION OF THE CENTRAL INTERIOR...

AKZ221-100400-
/X.EXP.PAFG.FW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-090510T0300Z/
CENTRAL INTERIOR-
657 PM AKDT SAT MAY 9 2009

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 7 PM AKDT THIS EVENING FOR
STRONG WIND...

THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 7 PM AKDT THIS EVENING. 

THE STRONG WIND THIS AFTERNOON IS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING
EARLY THIS EVENING...AND THE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE BEGINNING TO 
SLOWLY RECOVER. EXCEPT GOOD RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERIES TONIGHT. 


$$

AKZ222-100400-
/X.EXP.PAFG.FW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-090510T0300Z/
MIDDLE TANANA VALLEY-
657 PM AKDT SAT MAY 9 2009

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 7 PM AKDT THIS EVENING
STRONG WIND...

THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 7 PM AKDT THIS EVENING. 

THE STRONG WIND THIS AFTERNOON IS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING
EARLY THIS EVENING...AND THE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE BEGINNING TO 
SLOWLY RECOVER. EXCEPT GOOD RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERIES TONIGHT. 

$$

AKZ223-100400-
/X.EXP.PAFG.FW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-090510T0300Z/
DELTANA AND TANANA FLATS-
657 PM AKDT SAT MAY 9 2009

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 7 PM AKDT THIS EVENING FOR
STRONG WIND...

THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 7 PM AKDT THIS EVENING. 

THE STRONG WIND THIS AFTERNOON IS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING
EARLY THIS EVENING...AND THE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE BEGINNING TO 
SLOWLY RECOVER. EXCEPT GOOD RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERIES TONIGHT. 

$$

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
412 AM AKDT SAT MAY 9 2009

.DISCUSSION...
BUILDING RIDGE...SFC AND ALOFT..OVER SERN BERING SEA WILL BE THE
DOMINATE SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURE FOR MOST OF NORTHERN ALASKA FOR
THE NEXT 5-7 DAYS. UNLIKE THE RIDGE 10 DAYS AGO THAT WAS ABOUT AS
STRONG BUT CENTERED 700 MILES FARTHER EAST...TEMPS ALOFT WITH THIS
FEATURE WILL NOT BE UNUSUALLY MILD EXCEPT RIGHT NEAR THE
HIGH...AND EAST OF 150W TREND BY EARLY NEXT WEEK SEEMS TO BE FOR
COOLER AIR TO FILTER S FROM WESTERN CANADIAN ARCTIC.

WHILE MODELS IN AGREEMENT ON THE BASIC PATTERN...SGFNT DIFFS IN
QPF S OF THE BROOKS RANGE RIGHT FROM THE START. ECMWF AND GFS LOOK
MUCH OVERDONE WITH LARGE AREA OF VERY LIGHT PREICP AND SREF POPS
MUCH TOO HIGH. WITH COOLING AT LOW LEVELS NEXT 36 HOURS IN MOST
AREAS OF THE INTERIOR ATMOSPHERE WILL BE TOO STABLE FOR CONVECTIVE
PRECIP...SO ON THE WHOLE WE FAVOR THE NAM QPF...WHICH IS MUCH THE
LOWEST OF ANY OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE.

IN THE MID RANGE... THERE CONTINUES TO BE ABOVE AVERAGE AGREEMENT
AMONGST THE OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES THAT A STRONG RIDGE
ACROSS THE EASTERN BERING SEA WILL BE THE DOMINATE FEATURE DURING
THE MEDIUM RANGE.

500 MB HEIGHTS AND 850 MB TEMPS ARE IN THE 90TH PERCENTILE THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AT NOME AND KOTZEBUE...BUT SHY OF RECORD
LEVELS.  THIS WILL MEAN ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND LITTLE THREAT
OF PRECIPITATION ALONG THE WEST COAST...THO SFC TEMPS WILL BE
TEMPERED IN ONSHORE AREAS. DOWNSTREAM...MOST OF THE INTERIOR WILL BE IN
N-NW FLOW ALOFT WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. SHORTWAVES SPILLING
OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE WILL PRODUCE CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS
AT TIMES...BUT THE MODELS SEEM OVERDONE ON THE AMOUNT OF QPF.

THE PATTERN BECOMES LESS PREDICTABLE LATE NEXT WEEK. IT APPEARS THAT
A STRONGER SHORTWAVE MAY BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE AND BEING SOME COOLER
AIR INTO NORTHERN AK WITH THE RIDGE REBOUNDING AGAIN NEXT
WEEKEND...BUT DETAILS VARY FROM MODEL TO MODEL AND RUN TO RUN MAKING
THE PREDICTABILITY BELOW AVERAGE.

NORTH SLOPE...TEMPS MODERATING NEXT 36 HOURS AS COOL AIRMASS EXITS
TO THE EAST. SOME WARM ADVECTION SNOW OVER WESTERN ZONES SAT
NIGHT/SUNDAY BUT OTHERWISE VERY LITTLE PRECIP. WINDS ALSO
INCREASING WESTERN ZONES BUT MOSTLY FAIRLY LIGHT IN THE EAST.

WEST COAST...FORECAST ISSUE HERE IS HOW MUCH OF THE MILD AIR ALOFT
WILL BE REALIZED AT THE SURFACE. WITH SURFACE HIGH REMAINING NEAR
OR SOUTH OF ST MATTHEW ISLAND FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE...AREAS
WHERE W-SW WINDS ARE ONSHORE WILL LIKELY MOSTLY STAY IN THE ST AND
OCNL FOG...WHILE INLAND AREAS WILL BE MILDER. THE HIGH ALOFT MAY
BE STRONG ENOUGH TO EVENTUALLY START TO ERODE THE MARINE ST FROM
ABOVE BUT WITH STILL PLENTY OF ICE COVER ON THE BERING ODDS ARE
NOT HIGH FOR WHOLESALE CLEARING.

INTERIOR...REASONABLY FAST FLOW ALOFT WILL MEAN VARIABLE MID-HIGH
CLOUDS BUT LIMITED PRECIP. 00Z ECMWF HAS MUCH STRONGER SHORTWAVE
DROPPING SOUTH ALONG THE ALCAN BORDER BY MID-WEEK. THIS WILL HAVE
TO BE WATCHED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NONE..AND WITH COOLER TEMPS NONE EXPECTED. HOWEVER...WITHOUT
SIGNIFICANT PRECIP ANYTIME SOON IN MOST OF THE INTERIOR...SLOW
DRYING CONTINUES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAJOR PROBLEM REMAINS THE YUKON RIVER BETWEEN ABOUT FORT YUKON AND
THE DALTON HIGHWAY BRIDGE. AS OF FRI EVENING...AIRCRAFT RECON
INDICATED THE BREAK-UP FRONT JUST DOWNRIVER OF BEAVER. DEPENDING
ON JUST WHERE AND HOW LONG ICE JAMS FORM AND LAST...SIGNIFICANT
FLOODING IS A REAL POSSIBILITY AT THIS WEEKEND AT BOTH BEAVER AND
STEVENS VILLAGE. FLOOD WARNING ALSO VCNTY RUBY DUE TO LOCAL JAMS.
FLOOD WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR BUCKLAND RIVER AT BUCKLAND AND
KUSKO AT MCGRATH...

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH FOR AKZ210-AKZ227.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.
&&

RT/CB MAY 09