Gale Warning 93, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
244 PM AKDT THU OCT 8 2009

.DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE BERING SEA AND A RIDGE PERSISTING OVER
THE ALCAN BORDER. AT THE SURFACE THE MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT
ON A LOW ENTERING THE SOUTHERN BERING SEA CURRENTLY BUT ARE
VARIED WITH THE SPEED OF THE NEXT LOW MOVING NORTH INTO THE SAME
AREA ON SATURDAY MORNING.

WEST COAST...A SHORT WAVE MOVING OVER THE AREA TONIGHT WILL BRING
PERIODS OF RAIN AS FAR NORTH AS KOTZEBUE BEFORE TURNING TO SNOW
NORTH OF THIS AREA. AREAS OF FOG WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING INTO
TOMORROW WITH WIND ADVISORIES IN ZONES 217 AND 227 ENDING AT 6 PM.
WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
TO 35 TO 45 MPH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN ZONES AS A STRONG LOW MOVES
INTO BRISTOL BAY FRIDAY EVENING. THE NORTHERN NORTON SOUND COAST
FROM ELIM TO NOME IS UNDER A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH THE NOME TO COUNCIL ROAD THE MAJOR
CONCERN OF BEING COVERED BY WATER. HIGH WIND ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY
TO BE ISSUED FOR ZONES 214-215 AND POSSIBLY 227 FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. AREAS OR RAIN AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
WILL ALSO OCCUR OVER WESTERN ALASKA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS
THE LOW WORKS IT WAY SLOWLY NORTH AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT SWEEPS
THROUGH THE WEST.

INTERIOR...THE EARLY DAY RAIN HAS ENDED DUE TO A CHINOOK FLOW
ESTABLISHED AS UPPER RIDGE MOVES EAST. VERY WARM TEMPERATURES FOR
EARLY OCTOBER AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS THE RAIN-SNOW LINE WILL BE PUSHED WELL TO THE NORTHEAST.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL BE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY OVER SOUTH
SLOPES IN ZONES 217-218. WINDY CONDITIONS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS WIND ADVISORIES ARE OUT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING FOR ZONES 218-219 AND 220.

NORTH SLOPE...STRONG WINDS ARE THE HEADLINE FOR THIS AREA. GALE
FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY FROM THE CENTRAL
ARCTIC COAST TO THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST EXTENDING WELL OFFSHORE.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY ALONG THE WESTERN
ARCTIC COAST BEFORE ANOTHER INCREASE TO GALE FORCE FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY AS NEW BERING SEA LOW MOVES NORTH. SNOW WILL DEVELOP
FRIDAY IN THE WESTERN ARCTIC AND SPREAD INTO THE CENTRAL ARCTIC BY
FRIDAY EVENING.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FOR
STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF NORTON SOUND
FROM ELIM TO NOME FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...NONE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ217-AKZ218-AKZ219-AKZ220-AKZ227.

COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FOR AKZ211-AKZ212.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ230.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

RL OCT 09