Gale Warning 92, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
357 PM AKDT WED OCT 7 2009

.DISCUSSION...THE GFS AND NAM MODELS FORECAST A SERIES OF LOWS TO
MOVE UP TO THE SOUTHERN BERING SEA OVER THE NEXT 4 DAYS. THIS WILL
BRING ACTIVE...WINDY WEATHER TO MUCH OF NORTHERN ALASKA. THE
STRONGEST LOW IN THIS SERIES WILL BE THE THIRD ONE...A 964 MB LOW
MOVING UP TO COLD BAY FRIDAY NIGHT. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL BLOW
OVER THE COAST OF NORTHERN ALASKA FOR MOST OF THE TIME THROUGH
SATURDAY.

THE FIRST IN THE SERIES OF NORTHWARD MOVING WEATHER FRONTS IN THIS
SEQUENCE IS NOW MOVING UP OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
INTERIOR...AND IT WILL JUMP UP TO THE ARCTIC COAST THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THE SECOND FRONT WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK...AND BE
MOVING UP OVER THE INTERIOR THURSDAY NIGHT. THE THIRD FRONT...THE
BIG ONE...WILL MOVE FROM THE WEST GULF OF ALASKA UP TO THE BERING
SEA COAST OF NORTHERN ALASKA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. SUBSEQUENT
NORTH PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE WEAKER
AND WILL SURELY FOLLOW A DIFFERENT TRACK...ONE SOUTH OF THE
ALEUTIANS. THIS ALL MEANS THAT THE WEATHER HERE WILL BE EASING ON
SUNDAY. FURTHER...A GENTLE EASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
REALM ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUE FOR AWHILE.

BRISK SOUTH WINDS...MOSTLY 25 TO 50 MPH...THROUGH THE ALASKA
RANGE AND THE BROOKS RANGE WILL DIMINISH BY FRIDAY NOON.
HOWEVER...30 TO 60 MPH WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WESTERN ALASKA
RANGE AS LOW NUMBER 3 MOVES INTO THE BERING SEA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

THE COMPUTER FORECAST MODELS FORECAST TEMPERATURES ALOFT...NEAR
THE 5000 FOOT LEVEL OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR...TO BE FROM 4 TO 6
DEGREES CELSIUS ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. DUE TO THE WARM
TEMPERATURES ALOFT...SUCH AS THESE...MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
OVER NORTHERN ALASKA WILL BE RAIN. HOWEVER...SOME SUBSTANTIAL
SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTH SLOPES OF THE BROOKS RANGE
FROM THE CANADA BORDER TO THE DALTON HIGHWAY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE EFFECT OF DRYING OF THE AIR MASS IN THE LEE OF THE
ALASKA RANGE WILL LARGELY DETERMINE IF THIS SNOW FALL WILL BE
SIGNIFICANT OR NOT.

AFTERNOON POLAR ORBITING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEAR SKIES OVER
NEARLY ALL OF THE BROOKS RANGE AND LAYERED HIGH TOPPED CLOUDS TO
THE SOUTH. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG BLANKET NEARLY ALL OF THE ARCTIC
COAST AND THE INLAND COASTAL PLAIN.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.HYDROLOGY...ICE IS FORMING AND FLOWING DOWN ARCTIC AND SUB ARCTIC
RIVER SUCH AS THE KOBUK AND COLVILLE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-
PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210-PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240.
&&

TF OCT 09