Gale Warning 72, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1219 AM AKDT SUN AUG 30 2009

.DISCUSSION...
YESTERDAYS MODEL RUNS AND THE CURRENT MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO BE
ON TRACK WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW OVER THE RUSSIAN
INTERIOR NORTH OF MAGADAN. 06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A SURFACE
TROUGH DEEPENING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE PARENT LOW OVER THE
NORTHERN SEA OF OKOHTSK WITH A NEW 991 MB CENTER OVER THE
RUSSIAN INTERIOR NORTH OF MAGADAN. THE MOST RECENT RUNS OF THE
GFS/NAM/ECMWF AGREE WELL THROUGH 00Z TUE. 00Z TUE PROGGED POSITION
ABOUT 80 NM NORTH OF WRANGEL ISLAND WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 976 MB.
ALL THREE MODELS SHOW SIMILAR PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND WIND FIELDS
OVER THE NORTHERN BERING...CHUKCHI SEA...AND THE ARCTIC COASTAL
AND OFFSHORE AREAS THROUGH 00Z TUE.

HIGH SURF ADVISORIES WILL KEPT IN EFFECT FOR ZONES 207-211-212-213
WITH NO CHANGE IN EXPIRATION TIME. CURRENT OPC STORM SURGE GUIDANCE
INDICATES A MAXIMUM SURGE OF ABOUT 2 FEET FOR THE CHUKCHI SEA COAST
FROM CAPE KRUSENSTERN TO POINT HOPE...ABOUT 3 FEET FOR THE NORTON
SOUND COAST FROM WALES TO CAPE RODNEY...3 TO 4 FEET FROM CAPE RODNEY
TO CAPE NOME...AND 4 TO 5 FEET FROM EAST OF CAPE NOME TO NORTON BAY
WITH THE HIGHEST SURGE VALUES IN NORTON BAY. MAXIMUM STORM SURGE
IN THE NOME AREA IS ESTIMATED TO BE ABOUT 3.5 FEET. IN THE
UNALAKLEET AREA MAXIMUM STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE
OVER 4 FEET.

999 MB LOW CENTER SOUTH OF BARROW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE RAPIDLY
EASTWARD...FILLING 1-2 MB AND ARRIVING IN THE MACKENZIE RIVER
DELTA AREA BY 18Z SUN.

PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN CONTINUING OVER THE NORTHERN
ALASKA MAINLAND WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.
WEAK INTERMEDIATE RIDGE ALOFT ARRIVING ON THE WEST COAST
BY THIS AFTERNOON...MOVING EAST TO THE ALCAN BORDER
BY SUN AFTERNOON. LONG WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER
THE NORTHERN BERING AND CHUKCHI SEA TUE NIGHT WITH
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN MAINLAND.

RAIN LIKELY WEST COAST AND MOST WESTERN INTERIOR AREAS
SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUE. RAIN LIKELY WESTERN ARCTIC AREAS
SUN NIGHT...CENTRAL AND WESTERN ARCTIC AREAS MON AND
MON NIGHT. RAIN LIKELY EASTERN INTERIOR AND EASTERN ARCTIC
SUN. RAIN LIKELY IN PARTS OF CENTRAL INTERIOR SUN NIGHT
AND IN MOST OF CENTRAL INTERIOR MON AND MON NIGHT.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...HIGH SURF ADVISORIES
ARE SET TO EXPIRE AT 10 PM MON FOR ZONE 213 AND AT 6 AM TUE
FOR ZONES 207-211-212-213. NO FURTHER PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE REMAINDER OF TUE AND WED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NONE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR MORE...LOCALLY UP TO 2 INCHES...
ARE POSSIBLE IN PARTS OF NORTHWEST ALASKA OVER THE NEW FEW DAYS.
SMALL STREAMS IN SOME AREAS OF NORTHWEST ALASKA COULD REACH
BANKFULL STAGE IF THE FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS OCCUR.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR AKZ207-AKZ211-AKZ212-AKZ213.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ230-
PKZ235.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235-
PKZ240.
&&

RF AUG 09