Gale Warning 34, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1110 AM AKST TUE MAR 3 2009

CORRECTED TEXT LAST LINE FIRST PARAGRAPH

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT GFS/NAM MODEL RUNS ARE LINING UP WELL ON THE FORECAST
POSITION AND CENTRAL PRESSURE OF THE NEXT INCOMING LOW THROUGH
12Z FRI. 974 MB LOW 500 MILES SOUTH OF SHEMYA IS PROGGED TO
REACH THE WESTERN SEWARD PENINSULA BY 00Z FRI WITH A CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF AROUND 980 MB. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL IS EXPECTED
TO APPROACH SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND AND NORTON SOUND BY 06Z THU.

AN OLD 1000 MB LOW OVER THE GULF OF ANADYR WILL WEAKEN TO
A 1012 MB CENTER 100 MILES SOUTHWEST OF POINT HOPE BY
12Z WED. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE BEAUFORT SEA WILL BUILD AND
MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH WED.

WIND CHILL IS STILL RUNNING AROUND MINUS 50 AT WAINWRIGHT
WITH EAST WINDS AROUND 20 KT. WINDS IN THE WAINWRIGHT AREA
ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH GRADUALLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AND IT APPEARS UNLIKELY THAT WE WILL RUN THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY
IN ZONE 201 PAST 06Z WED.

OVER THE ARCTIC COAST...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN 15 MPH
OR LESS TONIGHT AND WED...THEN GRADUALLY INCREASING WED NIGHT
AND THU AS THE NEXT STORM MOVES NORTHEASTWARD. BRISK EAST WINDS
ARE LIKELY FROM BARROW WEST BY 12Z THU...EXPANDING OVER MOST
OF THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST BY 18Z THU.

BRISK EAST OR SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
ZONES 211-212-213-214 BY EARLY WED AFTERNOON. GFS 24 HR QPF
FORECAST FROM 12Z WED TO 12Z THU SHOWING AMOUNTS OF UP TO
0.4 TO 0.5 INCH IN ZONES 211-212-213-214-215-216...WITH LESSER
AMOUNTS IN ZONE 210-NEARBY PARTS OF ZONES 207-208-209-
WESTERN PARTS OF 219-221. THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO 24 HOUR
SNOW AMOUNTS OF AROUND 4 TO 6 INCHES. THE SNOW IS LIKELY TO BE
WET IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES AND POSSIBLY BECOME MIXED WITH RAIN
AS THE 1000-850 MB LAYER MEAN TEMPERATURE NUDGES UP TOWARDS
0C. GFS MOS TEMPERATURES MAXING OUT NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE
FREEZING IN ZONES 214-215.

WE WILL CONTINUE THE EXISTING WINTER STORM WATCHES FOR ZONES
213-214 FOR WED AND WED NIGHT. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES MAY
BE NEEDED FOR ZONES 215-216 AS WE GET CLOSER IN TIME.

A LEESIDE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN DEVELOPING ALONG THE
NORTH SIDE OF THE ALASKA RANGE WED EVENING...WITH INCREASING
SOUTH WINDS IN ALASKA RANGE PASSES. ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUSTS
ARE LIKELY WED NIGHT AND THU...AND WIND ADVISORIES FOR ZONES
225-226 WILL PROBABLY NEED TO BE HOISTED WED MORNING.

IN THE SHORT TERM...AREAS OF FLURRIES OR LOW-END LIGHT SNOW
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE IN SOME SECTIONS OF THE INTERIOR TONIGHT.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR AKZ201.

WINTER STORM WATCH FOR AKZ213-AKZ214.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210.
&&

RF MAR 09