Gale Warning 22, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
613 AM AKST TUE FEB 17 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PERSISTING THROUGH THE WEEK MEANS THE
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR NORTHERN ALASKA.

A 1000 MB LOW 120 NM NORTH OF BARROW WILL MOVE TO 200 NM NORTH OF
PRUDHOE BAY AS A 1008 MB LOW BY 3PM TUE AND THEN CONTINUE MOVING
NORTHEAST. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT FROM THIS LOW TO DEMARCATION POINT
TO DENALI PARK WILL MOVE EAST TO EAGLE TO TOK BY 3PM TUE AND THEN
CONTINUE EAST. GALE FORE WINDS AND BLIZZARD CONDITIONS SOUTH OF
THE LOW WILL DECREASE AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST. BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS WILL END FROM BARROW WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EAST OF
BARROW TONIGHT.

AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT FROM THIS LOW TO DEMARCATION POINT TO DENALI
PARK WILL MOVE EAST TO EAGLE TO TOK BY 3PM TUE AND THEN CONTINUE
EAST. EXPECT 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ALONG THE COLD FRONT ALONG WITH
WEST WINDS GUSTING TO 25 MPH AND LOCAL BLOWING SNOW AND FALLING
TEMPERATURES.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA WILL MOVE OVER THE WEST
COAST OF ALASKA TODAY...OVER THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN ARCTIC COAST
TONIGHT AND ALONG THE ALCAN BORDER WED. WILL SEE CLEARING WEST OF
THE COLD FRONT AS THIS HIGH BUILDS EAST.

A STRONG OCCLUDED FRONT IN THE WESTERN BERING WILL MOVE TO THE
NORTHERN BERING BY 3AM WED...TO THE BERING STRAIT TO YUKON DELTA
BY 3PM WED...AND TO BARROW TO MCGRATH BY 3AM THU. SOUTHEAST WINDS
TO 45 KT ALONG THIS FRONT WILL DECREASE TO 25-35 KT WED AS THE FRONT
MOVES INLAND. THIS WILL SPREAD BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AND COLD WIND
CHILLS TO THE WEST COAST TONIGHT AND WED. HEAVY SNOW WILL SPREAD
INTO THE WESTERN INTERIOR WED AND WED NIGHT...AND INTO THE
EASTERN INTERIOR WED NIGHT AND THU. EXPECT 4-8 INCHES OF SNOW WITH
THIS FRONT FROM THE WEST COAST THROUGH THE INTERIOR.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS INITIALIZE WELL AND SHOW SIMILAR PATTERNS. THE GFS IS ABOUT
6 HOURS FASTER THAN THE NAM WITH THE OCCLUDED FRONT APPROACHING
ALASKA FROM THE BERING SEA TONIGHT AND WED. DUE TO THE STRONG JET
SUPPORTING THIS FRONT, WE FAVOR THE FASTER GFS SOLUTION.

THE NAM SHOWS HIGHER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THAN THE GFS TODAY IN
THE EASTERN INTERIOR WITH THE COLD FRONT. WE PREFER THE GFS AS THE
SNOWFALL APPEARS TO BE TAPERING OFF AT THIS TIME.

MODELS ALL SHOW SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL WITH THE BERING SEA STORM AS
THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH IT MOVES INLAND. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH
THIS FRONT MAKES THIS LOOK LIKE IT COULD BE A SIGNIFICANT SNOW
PRODUCER FOR THE WEST COAST AND INTERIOR.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BLIZZARD WATCH FOR AKZ207-AKZ209-AKZ210-AKZ211-AKZ212-AKZ213-
AKZ214.

WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR AKZ207-AKZ210.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ219.

BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ201-AKZ202-AKZ203-AKZ204-AKZ205-AKZ206.

WINTER STORM WATCH FOR AKZ208-AKZ215-AKZ216-AKZ217.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235.
&&

JB FEB 09