Gale Warning 20, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
617 AM AKST MON FEB 16 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
THE PATTERN CONSISTING OF A STRONG SOUTHWEST JET MOVING ACROSS
THE BERING SEA INTO MAINLAND ALASKA WILL KEEP THE WEATHER DYNAMIC
OVER NORTHERN ALASKA THROUGH THE WEEK WITH A STRONG SHORT WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVING THROUGH EVERY TWO DAYS.

A 990 MB JUST EAST OF POINT HOPE WILL MOVE TO 100 NM SOUTH OF
BARROW BY 3PM MON AS A 994 MB LOW...TO 100 NM NORTH OF BARROW AS A
1000 MB LOW BY 3AM TUE...TO 200 NM NORTH OF PRUDHOE BAY AS A 1004
MB LOW BY 3PM TUE AND THEN CONTINUING NORTHEAST. A TRAILING COLD
FRONT FROM THIS LOW TO BETHEL WILL MOVE EAST TO UMIAT-MCGRATH BY
3PM MON...TO BARTER ISLAND TO DENALI BY 3AM TUE...AND THE EAGLE TO
TOK BY 3PM TUE. WILL SEE 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW ALONG THE TRACK OF THE
LOW...WITH 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ALONG THE COLD FRONT SOUTH OF THE LOW.

NORTHEAST WINDS 20-30KT AND BLOWING SNOW JUST NORTH OF THE LOW
WILL CHANGE TO WEST 25-35KT WITH WIND CHILLS 50-60 BELOW ALONG THE
COLD FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE LOW. THIS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO THE ARCTIC SLOPE TONIGHT AND TUE. WINDS
WILL BE WEST 15-25 KT ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES INLAND OVER THE
INTERIOR BUT MAY STILL CAUSE SOME BLOWING SNOW THERE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WEST OF THE COLD FRONT WITH THE HIGH
BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE WEST COAST OF ALASKA TUE AND OVER THE
INTERIOR TUE NIGHT. SHOULD SEE CLEARING AND WINDS DIMINISHING
WEST OF THE COLD FRONT AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN.

THE NEXT BIG STORM WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST BERING SEA MON
NIGHT AND TO THE CENTRAL BERING SEA BY LATE TUE. THIS WILL BRING
STRONG GALES AND POSSIBLE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO ZONES 213 AND 214
TUE NIGHT AND TO THE REMAINDER OF THE WEST COAST BY EARLY WED.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS APPEAR TO INITIALIZE WELL AND SHOW SIMILAR PATTERNS. THE
ECMF MAINTAINS A SURFACE LOW NORTH OF BARROW TONIGHT LONGER THAN
THE GFS AND THE NAM. PREFER THE ECMF SOLUTION MOVING THE LOW
EASTWARD NORTH OF THE ARCTIC COAST MORE SLOWLY THAN THE OTHER
MODELS TONIGHT AND TUE. PREFER THIS SINCE THE LOW ALOFT REMAINS
FURTHER WEST AND THERE SHOULD BE A SURFACE FEATURE ANCHORED UNDER
THIS. THIS MEANS THAT WE WILL KEEP STRONG WEST WINDS ALONG THE
ARCTIC COAST LONGER THAN GFS MIGHT INDICATE.

&&

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BLIZZARD WATCH FOR AKZ201-AKZ202-AKZ203-AKZ204-AKZ205-AKZ206.

WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ225-AKZ226.

WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ208-AKZ209-AKZ210-AKZ211-AKZ216-
AKZ217.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ201-AKZ207-AKZ212-AKZ213-AKZ214-
AKZ215-AKZ219.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-
PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240.
&&

JB FEB 09