Gale Warning 2, NWS Fairbanks, AK

933 
FZAK52 PAFG 161109
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
209 AM AKST FRI JAN 16 2009

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-170215-
209 AM AKST FRI JAN 16 2009

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 954 MB LOW WILL MOVE NORTH AND REACH THE YUKON DELTA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL TRACK UP THE WEST COAST OF ALASKA FRIDAY
NIGHT AND REACH THE SEWARD PENINSULA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE
LOW WILL MOVE RAPIDLY NORTHEAST AND WEAKEN TO 976 MB 200 NM NORTH
OF BARROW SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE WESTERN
CHUKCHI SEA.

$$

PKZ200-170215-
NORTON SOUND-
209 AM AKST FRI JAN 16 2009

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...E WINDS 25 KT BECOMING S 40 KT. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...S WINDS 40 KT. SNOW.
.SAT...SW WINDS 40 KT DECREASING TO 20 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WINDS 20 KT. 
.SUN...SW WINDS 20 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT. 
.MON...NE WINDS 20 KT. 
.TUE...NE WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ210-170215-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
209 AM AKST FRI JAN 16 2009

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...N WINDS 35 KT. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...NW WINDS 40 KT. 
.SAT...W WINDS 30 KT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT BECOMING N. 
.SUN...N WINDS 20 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WINDS 25 KT. 
.MON...NE WINDS 30 KT. 
.TUE...NE WINDS 30 KT.  

$$

PKZ215-170215-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
209 AM AKST FRI JAN 16 2009

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...NE WINDS 15 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 25 KT. SNOW.
.SAT...S WINDS 20 KT.
.SAT NIGHT...S WINDS 15 KT. 
.SUN...W WINDS 15 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WINDS 15 KT. 
.MON...NW WINDS 15 KT. 
.TUE...NE WINDS 10 KT.  

$$

PKZ220-170215-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
209 AM AKST FRI JAN 16 2009

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...N WINDS 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT. 
.TONIGHT...N WINDS 40 KT. SNOW.
.SAT...NW WINDS 35 KT. SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WINDS 20 KT.
.SUN...NW WINDS 20 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WINDS 20 KT. 
.MON...N WINDS 15 KT. 
.TUE...NE WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

JK/TF JAN 09

708 
FZAK52 PAFG 162257
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
157 PM AKST FRI JAN 16 2009

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-171400-
157 PM AKST FRI JAN 16 2009

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 950 MB LOW OVER BRISTOL BAY WILL MOVE TO NORTON SOUND AS 
A 961 MB LOW BY 3AM SAT THEN TO CAPE KRUSENSTERN AS A 970 MB LOW
BY 9AM SAT...AND TO NEAR BARROW AS A 976 MB LOW AT 3PM SAT.


$$

PKZ200-171400-
NORTON SOUND-
157 PM AKST FRI JAN 16 2009

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 40 KT BECOMING S. SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.
VSBY LESS THAN 1 NM.
.SAT...SW WINDS 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER NOON.
BLOWING SNOW. SNOW. VSBY 1 NM OR LESS.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WINDS 20 KT. 
.SUN...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WINDS 25 KT. 
.MON...NE WINDS 20 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WINDS 20 KT. 
.TUE...NE WINDS 25 KT. 
.WED...NE WINDS 30 KT.  

$$

PKZ210-171400-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
157 PM AKST FRI JAN 16 2009

...STORM WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT...
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...

.TONIGHT...N WINDS 40 KT...EXCEPT 50 KT NEAR THE BERING STRAIT
THIS EVENING. BLOWING SNOW. SNOW. VSBY 1 NM OR LESS.
.SAT...W WINDS 40 KT BECOMING SW 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. SNOW. VSBY
1 NM OR LESS. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WINDS 25 KT. 
.SUN...NE WINDS 30 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WINDS 35 KT. BLOWING SNOW. VSBY 1 NM OR LESS. 
.MON...NE WINDS 30 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WINDS 30 KT. 
.TUE...NE WINDS 30 KT. 
.WED...NE WINDS 30 KT.  

$$

PKZ215-171400-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
157 PM AKST FRI JAN 16 2009

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...E WINDS INCREASING TO 35 KT BLOWING SNOW. SNOW. VSBY 1
NM OR LESS.
.SAT...S WINDS 35 KT. BLOWING SNOW. SNOW. VSBY 1 NM OR LESS. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WINDS 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT. BLOWING SNOW.
VSBY 1 NM OR LESS.
.SUN...NE WINDS 10 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WINDS 10 KT. 
.MON...NW WINDS 15 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT. 
.TUE...NE WINDS 10 KT. 
.WED...NE WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ220-171400-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
157 PM AKST FRI JAN 16 2009

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...N WINDS 45 KT. BLOWING SNOW. SNOW. VSBY 1 NM OR LESS.
.SAT...N WINDS 45 KT BECOMING NW 35 KT. BLOWING SNOW. SNOW. VSBY
1 NM OR LESS. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WINDS 30 KT BECOMING NW 20 KT. SNOW.
.SUN...N WINDS 25 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WINDS 25 KT. 
.MON...N WINDS 20 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WINDS 10 KT. 
.TUE...NE WINDS 25 KT. 
.WED...N WINDS 25 KT.  

$$

JB/DJH JAN 09

808 
FZAK52 PAFG 171236
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
336 AM AKST SAT JAN 17 2009

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-180345-
336 AM AKST SAT JAN 17 2009

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 964 MB LOW OVER NORTON SOUND WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO BE A 980 MB
LOW NEAR BARROW AT 3PM SAT.

$$

PKZ200-180345-
NORTON SOUND-
336 AM AKST SAT JAN 17 2009

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...S WINDS 40 KT DECREASING TO 20 KT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...S WINDS 20 KT. 
.SUN...SE WINDS 20 KT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.MON...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.WED...E WINDS 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ210-180345-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
336 AM AKST SAT JAN 17 2009

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...W WINDS 40 KT BECOMING SW 30 KT. 
.TONIGHT...S WINDS 30 KT. 
.SUN...SE WINDS 30 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WINDS 30 KT. 
.MON...SE WINDS 25 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WINDS 30 KT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 30 KT. 
.WED...NE WINDS 30 KT.  

$$

PKZ215-180345-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
336 AM AKST SAT JAN 17 2009

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...S WINDS 35 KT DECREASING TO 25 KT. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...S WINDS 20 KT.
.SUN...S WINDS 15 KT.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WINDS 10 KT. 
.MON...SE WINDS 15 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WINDS 15 KT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.WED...E WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ220-180345-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
336 AM AKST SAT JAN 17 2009

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TODAY...N WINDS 40 KT. BLOWING SNOW. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...NW WINDS 35 KT DECREASING TO 20 KT. 
.SUN...N WINDS 20 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WINDS 20 KT. 
.MON...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WINDS 15 KT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.WED...NE WINDS 25 KT.  

$$

JK/CF JAN 09

688 
FZAK52 PAFG 180120
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
420 PM AKST SAT JAN 17 2009

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-181630-
420 PM AKST SAT JAN 17 2009

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 978 MB LOW OVER THE NOATAK VALLEY WILL DISSIPATE EARLY THIS
EVENING AS NEW 984 MB LOW DEVELOPS NEAR BARROW. THIS SECOND LOW
WILL MOVE RAPIDLY NORTHEAST OVER THE BEAUFORT SEA SAT NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR SAT NIGHT
THEN MOVE NORTH AND STRENGTHEN TO BE 1016 MB OVER THE UPPER
KOBUK VALLEY SUN AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ200-181630-
NORTON SOUND-
420 PM AKST SAT JAN 17 2009

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WINDS 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT BY MIDNIGHT.
.SUN...SE WINDS 15 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.MON...SE WINDS 20 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WINDS 20 KT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.WED...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.THU...NE WINDS 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ210-181630-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
420 PM AKST SAT JAN 17 2009

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...S WINDS 20 KT. 
.SUN...SE WINDS 25 KT. AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.MON...S WINDS 20 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WINDS 25 KT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 30 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WINDS 30 KT. 
.WED...NE WINDS 30 KT. 
.THU...NE WINDS 30 KT.  

$$

PKZ215-181630-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
420 PM AKST SAT JAN 17 2009

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WINDS 30 KT DECREASING TO 20 KT BY MIDNIGHT.
SNOW. BLOWING SNOW. VSBY LESS THAN 1 NM.
.SUN...SE WINDS 10 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WINDS 10 KT. 
.MON...E WINDS 10 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.WED...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.THU...NE WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ220-181630-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
420 PM AKST SAT JAN 17 2009

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WINDS 30 KT BECOMING NW. SNOW. BLOWING SNOW. VSBY
LESS THAN 1 NM. 
.SUN...NE WINDS 20 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WINDS 20 KT. 
.MON...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WINDS 15 KT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WINDS 25 KT. 
.WED...NE WINDS 25 KT. 
.THU...NE WINDS 25 KT.  

$$

RF/DJH JAN 09

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
559 AM AKST THU JAN 15 2009

.DISCUSSION...THE LAST 2 DAYS WEATHER ARE AN EXCELLENT EXAMPLE OF
WHAT HAPPENS AS A BIG ALASKA COLD SNAP ENDS. THEY DO NOT EXIT
SUBTLY, BUT WITH STRENGTH AND FLOURISH. IN CONTRAST, WARM SPELLS
NORMALLY FADE WITHOUT ADO.

IN THIS CASE, A NUMBER OF SOUTHERN ALASKA INTERIOR SITES HAVE HAD
80 DEGREE RISES IN TEMPERATURE FROM 3 DAYS AGO TO NOW. THE CHINOOK
NOW FLOWING OVER/DOWN THE ALASKA RANGE INTO THE INTERIOR WILL BE
REINFORCED BY A SERIES OF FAST MOVING (ABOUT 50 KNOTS) WAVES ON THE
STRONG FRONT NOW RUNNING FROM KODIAK ISLAND TO ABOUT 35 DEGREES
NORTH 152 DEGREES WEST. NONE OF THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS DEFINED
THE DETAILS OF THESE STRONG INCOMING WAVES. THIS IS NORMAL FOR
SUCH HIGH ENERGY SYSTEMS, ESPECIALLY THOSE INBOUND TO ALASKA FROM
30-SOMETHING DEGREES NORTH.

THE FIRST FRONT IN THIS ONSLAUGHT IS NOW WEAKENING OVER THE
EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST. ITS PARENT LOW IS NOW OVER SOUTHWEST
ALASKA AND WILL BE AN IMPORTANT FACTOR IN DEFINING SURFACE WINDS
OVER THE BERING SEA COAST OF ALASKA TODAY.

LOW #2 OF THIS SERIES IS NOT DEFINED BY THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS IT MOVING UP OVER KODIAK ISLAND AT THIS
TIME.

LOW #3 IS SOMEWHERE NEAR 35 DEGREES NORTH AND 153 DEGREES
WEST. THE NUMERICAL MODELS CALCULATE THAT THIS ONE WILL HAVE GREAT
ENERGY -- REACHING A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 952 MB OVER KUSKOKWIM BAY
ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. OUR FORECASTS HAVE TAKEN THIS SERIOUSLY AND
FULL GALES ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE WEST COAST ON FRIDAY.
AFTER MOVING OVER KOTZEBUE FRIDAY NIGHT THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN AND MOVE RAPIDLY INTO THE NORTHEAST BEAUFORT SEA ON
SATURDAY. FROM ALL PRESENT APPEARANCES, THIS LOW WILL BRING IN A
CLASSIC PINEAPPLE EXPRESS TO MUCH OF MAINLAND ALASKA ON FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT HAVE RANGED FROM 10 BELOW ON THE YUKON
FLATS TO THE MID 50S ABOVE AT THE NORTH ENDS OF SOME ALASKA RANGE
PASSES. WHILE THE NORTH INTERIOR WILL CONTINUE TO WARM, ANOTHER
SURGE OF WARM AIR CAN EASILY BE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
EVENING. AS IS NORMALLY THE CASE, ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION OVER
ALASKA IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AFTER LOW #3 HAS RUN ITS COURSE.

ASIDE FROM THE UPPER TANANA VALLEY NEARLY ALL OF NORTHERN ALASKA
HAS SOME MODERATE TO STRONG IMPACT WEATHER. MOST OF THE
ADVISORIES, WATCHES AND WARNINGS NOW IN EFFECT WILL END BY
MIDNIGHT, AND WE EXPECT A NEW ROUND TO BEGIN FRIDAY AS THE FUTURE
PATH OF LOW #3 BECOMES BETTER DEFINED.

ANOTHER FEATURE NOT COVERED BY THE NUMERICAL MODELS IS A SMALL
SURFACE LOW OVER THE WESTERN BROOKS RANGE. EAST WINDS AND IFR
WEATHER NOW OVER THE ARCTIC COAST ARE FORECAST TO ABRUPTLY CHANGE
LATER TODAY AS THE WINDS SHIFT TO WEST SOUTHWEST AND THE IFR
WEATHER IMPROVED TO MVFR IN THE WEST TO VFR IN THE EAST.

THE VOLUME AND STRENGTH OF THE INCOMING WARM AIR ALOFT INTO THE
INTERIOR HAS BROUGHT PLENTY OF FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW TO THE WEST
AND NORTHERN INTERIOR, AS WELL AS TO THE SOUTH ENDS AND HIGH
POINTS OF ALASKA RANGE PASSES. MORE OF THIS IS FOR FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT, FORECASTING A
BRIEF OUTBREAK OF WESTERLIES BELOW 65 DEGREES NORTH, FOLLOWED BY
WEAKER CIRCULATION ABOVE A GULF OF ALASKA RIDGE ALOFT THROUGH LATE
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ222-AKZ223.

WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ206-AKZ208-AKZ209-AKZ210-AKZ212-
AKZ215-AKZ216-AKZ217-AKZ218-AKZ219.

HIGH WIND WARNING FOR AKZ220-AKZ225-AKZ226.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-
PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

TF JAN 09